Breaking from post ten will be the Pleasantly Perfect gelding Whitmore, trained by the quietly savvy Ron Moquett. This horse has the potential for improvement and is going to need a step forward to win the big dance.
The gelded son of Breeders' Cup Classic and Dubai World Cup winner Pleasantly Perfect is out of the unraced Scat Daddy daughter Melody's Cat. She is out of the winning Tale of the Cat daughter Capture the Cat. There isn't really a whole lot of blacktype in this particular female family, at least in the first few generations, but you can find Seattle Slew and Forty Niner daughters there, too.
Whitmore is yet another late closer in this field and will no doubt be caught in a traffic jam at some point. He's been putting in some very good runs down at Oaklawn Park, coming from out of the clouds to get a piece of it behind Cupid in the Rebel and Creator and Suddenbreakingnews in the Arkansas Derby. He gets last year's Triple Crown jockey Victor Espinoza, who's won the last two Derbies in a row (on California Chrome and American Pharoah), so his rider definitely knows how to get to the wire first. Whitmore himself has yet to break through in a stakes, but the mile and a quarter distance may be right up his alley.
Whitmore has been sharp in his morning works, getting five panels in 1:00 flat in his last work on April 29th in his first timed move at Churchill Downs. There hasn't been a lot of buzz about this horse that I've heard, but it seems unlikely that Moquett would bring a three-year-old to the first Saturday in May that isn't ready to run a big one. I'd rather take a wait and see approach on this one than put money on him.
Post eleven will be graced by Exaggerator, a horse who has been consistently in the shadow of Nyquist. He's Keith Desormeaux's first Kentucky Derby starter and the only horse in the field to post four straight triple digit Brisnet speed figures.
I love this horse's pedigree, of course. He is by Curlin, winner of the Breeders' Cup Classic, Dubai World Cup and Preakness Stakes, and out of a stakes-placed daughter of the undefeated champion Seattle Slew son Vindication. His dam, Dawn Raid, is out of the Bold Ruckus daughter Embur's Sunshine, also dam of Canadian champion Embur's Song. His pedigree has a very nice balance of speed and stamina, and he's certainly run to it.
As a two-year-old, Exaggerator was brilliant enough to win the Saratoga Special, but fell short in the Breeders' Futurity behind Brody's Cause and in finishing fourth in the Breeders' Cup behind Nyquist, Swipe, and Brody's Cause. He won the Delta Downs Jackpot in his last start as a two-year-old, then made his three-year-old debut behind Nyquist in the San Vicente. He was third in the San Felipe to Danzing Candy but avenged that defeat in the absence of Nyquist over a very sloppy track in the Santa Anita Derby. That race was his most visually impressive as he came from as many as 16 lengths off the pace to take command turning for home, exploding in the stretch to defeat Mor Spirit by 6 1/4.
There is a lot to like about Exaggerator. He's tough and well seasoned with nine starts under his belt and he's only twice been worse than third. He's a grade one winner and is coming into the race in good shape. He had a quick five furlong work at Santa Anita on the 23rd before shipping to Churchill Downs. His last work was under the twin spires, a leisurely five panel move in 1:02 3/5. He has tactical speed and can be anywhere he needs to be in the field, although it seems that his absolute best running is when he lays back and makes one big move. Why isn't he one of my picks? Well, I can't really say, but his last two graded stakes wins have come over an off track, and it doesn't look like he's going to get that in the Derby. He's back against Nyquist and Brody's Cause, both of whom have soundly defeated him before. He could easily prove my gut completely wrong.
Exaggerator in the post parade for the 2015 Breeders' Futurity (photo by Erin Sanderson)
Just beside Exaggerator in the starting gate will be a longshot by the name of Tom's Ready. The dark colt comes out of the barn of Dallas Stewart, who has surprised us with Derby longshots hitting the board in the past (runners-up Golden Soul and Commanding Curve).
Tom's Ready is a son of More Than Ready, a brilliant sprinter and miler whose foals tend to take after him in their distance preferences. He gets a little stamina help from his dam's sire, Broad Brush, who got such classic types as Concern, Include, and Farda Amiga, and from his second dam's sire Deputy Minister, sire of Awesome Again, Touch Gold, Go For Wand, etc.
This colt hasn't run numbers in the same class as some of the others, and he only has a maiden win to his credit. He got beaten in the Street Sense last year by Mo Tom and finished eighth in the Kentucky Jockey Club. This year, he finished second in the LeComte, again to Mo Tom, and came up flat in the Risen Star. His runner-up finish in the Louisiana Derby was his best race to date, and he had his fair share of trouble early getting bumped at the break. There is no doubt in my mind, however, that he would not have finished second had Mo Tom not gotten shut off deep in the stretch. He was finishing nowhere near as strongly as that rival.
Tom's Ready is coming into this race very similarly to how I remember Commanding Curve training. His April 29th breeze was excellent, finishing five furlongs in :59 2/5. He has been training much stronger at Churchill Downs since the Louisiana Derby than he did before it, and if anyone knows how to bring a longshot to hit the board in the big dance, it's Dallas Stewart. Again, he's not one of my picks, but there's plenty to like. Unfortunately, he's going to need an ideal trip, as he's yet another horse with little early speed.
The big favorite gets lucky number thirteen, the same post as his stablemate Land Over Sea got yesterday in the Kentucky Oaks. In seven starts, Nyquist has never done anything wrong. His record is flawless, and he has one of the top career best speed figures in the field.
The son of Uncle Mo is out of the winning Forestry mare Seeking Gabrielle. She is out of the graded stakes winner Seeking Regina, a nicely producing daughter of Kentucky Derby winner Seeking the Gold. Seeking Regina is also the second dam of Metropolitan Mile winner Sahara Sky. Fourth dam Matriculation was a stakes winner at a mile and a half and by Belmont Stakes winner Arts And Letters, so both the stamina and the speed can be found in abundance in Nyquist's pedigree.
I could wax poetic for pages on what this horse has done in his racing career. He has won when he was supposed, and even more impressively when he wasn't supposed to. He was bumped hard at the start of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and farther back than he'd ever been before, all while six wide rounding the first turn. He was three wide turning for home and still won. He set a track record in the San Vicente in his first start this year, then came off a layoff in the Florida Derby to win wire to wire. In that race, he not only defeated the previously unbeaten Mohaymen and fellow Derby starter Majesto, he also ran the fastest final eighth of any nine furlong prep race in the country, all while goofing off in the stretch. This horse has serious ability and he proves his doubters wrong time and time again.
I got to see Nyquist in person a week after the Florida Derby and he did not look like a horse who had just passed one of the toughest tests of his career. He looked ready to run again that weekend in the Blue Grass, actually. There should be no concern about this horse having only two starts this year. He has plenty of bottom from his five race campaign last season and his long breezes this year. His final work for the Kentucky Derby was a one mile breeze in 1:41 and O'Neill is fond of long, fast gallops for fitness, as well. He is looking excellent coming into the big race and is the deserving favorite.
With tactical speed, grit, toughness and sheer brilliance, Nyquist is one of my top picks for the Kentucky Derby. These connections teamed up four years ago with I'll Have Another to win the first two legs of the Triple Crown, and there seems little reason to doubt that they could do it again this year.
Nyquist at Keeneland a week after the Florida Derby (photo by Erin Sanderson)
Mohaymen, the beaten favorite eight lengths behind Nyquist in the Florida Derby, comes back for another go from post position fourteen. The handsome gray from Shadwell Stables and Kiaran McLaughlin will be looking for redemption in the Kentucky Derby, and he just might get it.
Another son of Tapit, Mohaymen sold for $2.2 million as a yearling to Shadwell. He is out of the multiple graded stakes winner Justwhistledixie, a daughter of the multiple grade one winner Dixie Union. The latter is often thought of as just a mile type sire, but his son Union Rags won the Belmont Stakes in 2012 and daughter Dixie Strike was third in the Queen's Plate against the boys and graded stakes placed at 10 furlongs. Second dam General Jeanne is by Honour and Glory and also produced the fast sprinter Bakken. Third dam Ahpo Hel is by the brilliant Mr. Leader, sire of Travers Stakes winner Wise Times and Santa Anita Handicap winner Ruhlmann, among others, and she is from the female family of the great Bold Irish, second dam of Ruffian.
Up until the Florida Derby, Mohaymen had been perfect in his career and largely unchallenged. He soundly defeated highly regarded colts Zulu, Greenpointcrusader and Flexibility, among others at two and three, winning the Remsen and Nashua at two and the Holy Bull and Fountain of Youth this year. I am of the firm belief that the Mohaymen we saw in the Florida Derby was not himself, and his workout patterns seem to indicate the same.
This fast colt has been training super aggressively in the mornings at Churchill Downs and he looks to be jumping out of his skin. Hopefully he isn't too sharp for the Derby and trying to run away on the front end. He has a ton of tactical speed and can lay anywhere in a great stalking position. With his draw a bit to the outside, he might get a wide trip, but he should not encounter any traffic trouble. I think Kiaran McLaughlin has a great shot to win his first Kentucky Derby with this colt.
Outwork will break from post 15 for the Derby. The big, imposing son of Uncle Mo is hoping to do what his sire didn't get the chance to do for owner Mike Repole and trainer Todd Pletcher.
The pedigree is certainly all there for Outwork. His sire is represented by two other Derby starters, including the favored Nyquist, and he is out of the grade one placed Nonna Mia, a daughter of Belmont winner and Kentucky Derby runner-up Empire Maker who has sired such excellent horses as multiple champion Royal Delta, multiple grade one winner Grace Hall, Kentucky Derby runner-up Bodemeister, and Preakness winner and Triple Crown sire Pioneerof The Nile, among numerous others. Nonna Mia is a half sister to once early Kentucky Derby favorite, Cairo Prince (also by Pioneerof The Nile), by the great Holy Bull.
This horse looks every bit as good as his pedigree and has only lost once in his four race career. He got an early start, breaking his maiden in April at Keeneland last year, but was off with physical issues until this February, when he won a six furlong optional claimer at Tampa Bay by 4 1/4 lengths. He was a solid second to Destin in the Tampa Bay Derby before winning a sloppy, rainy Wood Memorial.
There are doubts as to whether Outwork is actually fast enough to win the Kentucky Derby, but many clockers and handicappers seem to agree that he is blossoming at Churchill Downs and looks better than many of the other contenders. He had a solid maintenance breeze on the 29th, going five in 1:01 flat, and his gallops have been smooth and effortless.
This horse has a lot of early speed, which might end up with him hung wide going into the first turn. He has proven ability to battle back after being challenged, which is good to see in such a young, inexperienced horse, but his somewhat slower speed figures leave a little something to be desired. You can't always bet the numbers though, and Outwork is certainly one to watch.
Chad Brown has a Derby starter breaking from post 16, and that is Shagaf. He was a perfect three for three until a beaten favorite in the Wood Memorial, but his typically reserved trainer seems very confident in his chances.
By red hot sire Bernardini, Shagaf certainly looks like the hot-blooded type. He is out of the stakes winning Unbridled's Song daughter Muhaawara. Out of multiple grade one winner Habibti, Muhaawara is a half sister to Breeders' Cup Marathon winner Eldaafer. Habibti is out of a daughter of Belmont, Travers, and Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Temperence Hill, so this horse at least has the pedigree to love ten furlongs.
Shagaf won the Gotham Stakes earlier in the year over the inner track as Aqueduct and went into the Wood Memorial as the favorite. That race was his first attempt over a muddy track and he was also further back than he was used to, having to rally wide into the lane before coming up empty in the final eighth. Chad Brown says "draw a line through it" though, and I am inclined to listen to him.
This horse looks to have put on weight since the Wood Memorial and has been breezing very well since arriving at Churchill Downs, with two nice half mile moves over the track. Physically, he looks a little more like a mile type in my opinion, but so did Cathryn Sophia, and she proved me completely wrong yesterday. Don't discount this horse, with his stellar pedigree, obvious talent, hot handed jockey and future Hall of Fame trainer.
Out wide in the 17 post is the Bob Baffert trainee, Mor Spirit. The big dark bay colt is an imposing figure and very distinctive on the track with his low carriage and massive stride. The grade one winner was a bargain as a yearling when he was purchased for $85,000, only to be resold as a two-year-old to his current connections for $650,000.
Mor Spirit is a son of the very talented Wood Memorial winner Eskendereya, who was retired due to a soft tissue injury before he could start in the 2010 Kentucky Derby. The son of Giant's Causeway out of a Seattle Slew mare was at one time haled as the next great three-year-old and the best chance we'd seen in years to win the Triple Crown. Mor Spirit is out of the speedy stakes winner I'm a Dixie Girl, a daughter of previously mentioned Dixie Union. Second dam I'm Out First was a multiple stakes winner and daughter of Allen's Prospect, whose get tended to be both speedy and tough. Third dam Sequins is also the second dam of Breeders' Futurity (G1) and Robert B. Lewis (G2) winner Great Hunter.
Mor Spirit is one of the more consistent horses in the race. In seven starts, he has won three and finished second four times, earning more than $650,000 to date. He broke his maiden in his first two turn start, a mile maiden at Santa Anita Park, by 4 1/4 lengths. He shipped to Kentucky to be second in the sloppy Kentucky Jockey Club, then came from behind to win the Los Alamitos Futurity. This year, he won the Robert B. Lewis Stakes in very nice fashion before finishing second to a flying Danzing Candy in the San Felipe, defeating Exaggerator by three parts of a length. He was again second in the Santa Anita Derby and just never seemed to get ahold of the track, but he kept grinding to finish 2 1/4 lengths ahead of the next horse, Uncle Lino.
This horse has been training extremely well since arriving at Churchill Downs, with two five furlong moves in :59 4/5. He's a big, long-striding horse with some tactical speed, though he's going to need a clean trip to avoid getting shut off and having to rebreak. He doesn't have a scintillating turn of foot, but he is a determined grinder who will come after you until the end. I love this horse going ten furlongs at Churchill Downs and he will get three-time Kentucky Derby winning jockey Gary Stevens in the irons.
Mor Spirit as a two-year-old at Del Mar (photo by Erin Sanderson)
Breaking from post 18 will be the longshot Majesto. He is Gustavo Delgado's first Kentucky Derby starter, but doesn't look as if he quite belongs with this bunch.
The bay ridgling is by dual Breeders' Cup Classic winner Tiznow and out of the unraced Unacloud, a daughter of the grade one winning handicapper Unaccounted For. Second dam Clouds Ambre is by the speedy stakes winner and sire Two Punch and third dam Arctic Cloud was a multiple stakes winner up to a mile and a sixteenth.
In six starts, Majesto has only won once in breaking his maiden at a mile and a sixteenth in February at Gulfstream Park. In a bold move, his connections pointed him for the heavyweight dogfight that the Florida Derby was supposed to be. The match race between Nyquist and Mohaymen never really developed, and Majesto closed very well to grab second, beaten 3 1/4 lengths by the west coast invader. His performance there was certainly good, but he also got the ideal trip along the inside that none of the other top finishers could take advantage of.
Majesto has been training well going into the Derby, but he just doesn't have the look of a Derby winner. He has a big, ground-covering stride, but I almost think it's too big to be translated into speed and athleticism, which may be necessary to avoid a wide trip from this post position. For me, he's a toss.
Post nineteen (my lucky number) will hold Brody's Cause, a big, strong colt who is a multiple grade one winner for the barn of Dale Romans. Romans seems extremely confident in this horse going into the first Saturday in May and says he will have no excuses today.
"Brody" is a son of the great Giant's Causeway and actually has one of the best classic dosage profiles of anyone in the race. His dam is the multiple stakes placed Sweet Breanna. Her sire, Sahm, was a Mr. Prospector graded stakes winner on the turf and the only son of Irish Derby winning filly Salsabil. Second dam is the talented Sweet Roberta, a graded stakes winning daughter of three-time champion and Epsom Derby winner Roberto, who sired the great turf horse Sunshine Forever and perennial leading sire Dynaformer. Brody's third dam, Candy Bowl, is a half sister to sire Cure the Blues and by record-setting multiple grade one winner Majestic Light. He is from the female family of the memorable Imperatrice, second dam of Secretariat.
Brody's Cause made his first start at a mile on the turf and was beaten 25 lengths, but once he switched to dirt, he only has one bad race. Dale Romans says that his multiple grade one winner had legitimate excuses for the Tampa Bay Derby and to cross that one out. He came back with a powerful win in the Blue Grass, in which he closed from more than 10 lengths off the pace and navigated a fourteen horse field to win going away. He played around a bit in the stretch with no one to push him and jumped to the wrong lead, but it was also Luis Saez's first time riding him. Saez should have a better feel for him this time out and be able to drop him back into the clear. His speed figures are a concern, but he seems like the type of horse that we haven't seen the bottom of yet.
Brody has also been training very well at Churchill Downs. He's been very on the muscle and getting over the track smoothly, including in his April 30th breeze in 1:00 1/5, fourth fastest of 57 at the distance that day. That work was unaccompanied and very professional, although he did change leads approaching the wire as he did in the Blue Grass before galloping out strongly around the turn.
Brody's Cause has been one of my favorites since I picked him in the post parade for the Breeders' Futurity, and he looks like a colt made to go the ten furlongs. He's going to come running, but we'll see if he's actually fast enough to get there. I'd still use him in a trifecta, superfecta or across the board bet.
Brody's Cause winning the 2016 Blue Grass Stakes (photo by Erin Sanderson)
The final horse in the Derby gate will be Danzing Candy, the first Derby starter for trainer Cliff Sise, Jr. The graded stakes winner has blazing speed, but his ability to get ten furlongs first from the far outside is a point of debate.
He is a son of Twirling Candy, the record-setting sprinter who also placed second in the Pacific Classic and third in the Hollywood Gold Cup. His dam Talkin And Singing is a daughter of Songandaprayer, probably most famous for setting the most torrid pace in Kentucky Derby history in 2001. Talkin And Singing is a half sister to Breeders' Cup Turf winner Better Talk Now, both produced from the Baldski daughter Bendita.
Danzing Candy broke his maiden the day after Christmas at Santa Anita, winning at seven furlongs by 3 1/4 lengths in his first start under Mike Smith. He clicked off two more wins, both gate to wire, including the San Felipe over Mor Spirit and Exaggerator. In the Santa Anita Derby, he was sent from the gate after not breaking the sharpest and just never relaxed thereafter. It's been theorized that the mud hitting him in the belly could have been the culprit, or he just didn't feel like rating. Either way, he set blazing fractions and faded to be beaten by 13 lengths by Exaggerator.
This colt hasn't had a timed work over the Churchill Downs strip, but he has been training sharply, his last breeze on the 30th five furlongs in :59 4/5. I've seen absolutely zero video of him since he arrived at Churchill, but it would seem silly for a horse with his kind of talent to be there if he wasn't fit (of course, we've seen sillier). I think he is at an extreme disadvantage from the far outside post and if he wants a ground saving trip, Smith will have to use him to clear the entire field.
Personally, this race has me entirely baffled. There are eight or nine that I like and think have a big shot to win, and I can make a good case for just about all of them. I'd be playing combinations of Nyquist, Mohaymen, Mor Spirit, Brody's Cause, Destin, Suddenbreakingnews, Gun Runner and perhaps Mo Tom or Lani for kicks. I'm tempted to toss Trojan Nation into a ten cent Nyquist/Mor Spirit/all superfecta box to see what happens.
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