The 2016 Kentucky Derby Post Parade (Part 1 of 2)

This will hardly be as detailed as my Oaks rundown, since I haven't had any motivation, but who can resist doing something special for the Kentucky Derby for long?  I have to admit that, no matter how much I look at it, this field leaves my head spinning, and I keep returning to the five colts I adored last season: Nyquist, Mohaymen, Brody's Cause, Mor Spirit and Trojan Nation.  I can make a strong case for several others, including Creator, Gun Runner, and Exaggerator.  But why don't we start at the top and see where we end up? 

Leading the post parade will be the maiden Trojan Nation.  He's bucking history in a big way.  No horse has won the Kentucky Derby to break their maiden since 1933 when Broker's Tip did it in a shocker.  And don't forget that it's been 30 years since a horse breaking from the rail has won the Derby.

I spotted this guy back in August at Del Mar after he'd just come off the track and I was blown away by his physicality.  He's a big, long-striding colt with a giant walk and an overall classy look to him.  Once I saw that pedigree, I was hooked.  He's by the classic sire Street Cry, who got 2007 Derby winner Street Sense and numerous other excellent runners, and out of the champion race mare Storm Song, by classic winner Summer Squall.   

A maiden is a maiden, but this one is grade one placed and probably the richest three-year-old maiden in the country.  He's shown a variety of running styles to his various on the board finishes, but his best races have been come-from-behind finishes.  Last out in the Wood Memorial, he was as many as 17 lengths off the lead before roaring up the rail to nearly catch Outwork for the win.  He was in very tight quarters but still finished well, so at least he isn't afraid to move through traffic.  

Trojan Nation (I call him "TJ") doesn't seem to know he lost.  According to his trainer, Paddy Gallagher, he has been a different horse since leaving New York.  He's certainly been training aggressively and looks like he has been a handful in the mornings.  His last breeze on the 28th at Santa Anita was a bullet 1:12 3/5 for 6 furlongs. 

As much as I adore this colt, I don't think he's going to make modern day history.  His far inside post position and late running style will do him absolutely no favors in this big of a field.  I don't doubt that he will be passing horses in the stretch, but it will probably be too little too late.  He might be one to use in a superfecta box, however. 

 

Trojan Nation at Del Mar as an unraced two-year-old (photo by Erin Sanderson)

Donnie Von Hemel's trainee Suddenbreakingnews will head to the gate next.  This horse has improved almost every race since he was disqualified from the win in his very first race at Remington Park on the turf.  He has been exceptionally consistent, winning or finishing second in all but one of his eight career starts.

Really, the more I look at Suddenbreakingnews, the more I like him.  This gritty gelding has only one bad race where he admittedly did not get the best trip in the Rebel Stakes.  He was very impressive circling the field in the Southwest Stakes to win powering away from Whitmore, then ended up widest of all in the Arkansas Derby and finished better than anyone in the race. 

He certainly has the pedigree of a ten furlong horse.  His sire, Mineshaft, was a four-time grade one winner including the 1 1/4 mile Jockey Club Gold Cup and Suburban Handicap.  His dam, Uchitel, is by Preakness and Belmont hero Afleet Alex and out of Party Cited, winner of the 11 furlong Yerba Buena Handicap, by dual Arc de Triomphe winner Alleged.  To add to the appeal of a true classic pedigree, this horse has been training exceptionally well since the Arkansas Derby.  His five panel move on April 29th was impressive: smooth, professional, and fast in :59 3/5. 

Morning line odds of 20-1 just don't seem fair for Suddenbreakingnews.  He's consistent, tough, and has been preparing for the big race as well as anyone.  His inside post position probably won't help him, though, and will more than likely force him into another situation where he has to drop way out of it and circle the field.  The long Churchill Downs stretch and extra furlong could help him get there.  This is definitely one to watch.

The handsome gray Creator will exit the three post for new Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen.  The first of three sons of Tapit in the field, the big colt took a few starts to get his running legs under him.  He broke his maiden in his sixth try, going from last to first in the blink of an eye around the turn and roaring home more than seven lengths clear. 

By now, I believe we all know the merits of Tapit as a sire in terms of class, speed, and all around awesome.  Creator's dam is an unusual one, though.  A two-time Peruvian champion, Morena was also multiple graded stakes placed here in the United States.  She is by Privately Held, an excellent stamina influence in Peru by Private Account, and out of a daughter of Belmont winner Summing.

In six starts on the dirt, Creator has never been worse than second, and his win in the Arkansas Derby was downright powerful.  He came home the final eighth of a mile in :12 3/5, a sight faster than many of the others have accomplished at nine furlongs, and his late pace number of 101 was very good.  He's been training pretty leisurely since then, but after popping his highest career speed figure, he doesn't need any more incentive to bounce.

This is another horse with a lot of class that will probably be hurt by his post position.  He has next to no early speed and will find himself well behind and likely in the clear, but making his way through a 20 horse field is a much different animal than he's faced before.  If anyone can pull off circling this big field on Saturday, it could be the big-striding gray Creator.

Breaking from post four is Mo Tom, who just may be this year's Dollar Bill.  The poor colt just can't seem to stay out of trouble.  Even in his win in the LeComte Stakes in January, he hit the gate at the start, then had his hind end nearly taken out from under him going into the first turn. 

The first of Uncle Mo's representatives in this year's Derby, Mo Tom is out of the Rubiano mare Caroni, also the dam of Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies runner-up Beautician.  Caroni is a half sister to the multiple graded stakes winning sprinter Kashatreya.  Second dam Deuce Carrotte, by Caro, is a half sister to multiple graded stakes winner Lady At Peace.  There's a healthy mix of speed and stamina in Mo Tom's pedigree, and his race performances indicate he can run to the stamina side of it as well as he can the speed.

He broke his maiden at first asking at six furlongs, then took the one mile Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs in his third race before finishing a solid third in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes behind Airoforce and Mor Spirit.  His previously mentioned run in the LeComte was excellent and he came home with a late pace figure of 103, one of the best in the Derby field.  Since then, he's been a hard luck case, having to check hard mid-rally in both the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby, both won by Gun Runner.  He was absolutely flying in the Risen Star before bouncing off the rail and re-rallied to finish better than anyone.  It was almost a perfect replay in the Louisiana Derby for Mo Tom, who was full of run until his rider steered him to the rail and got shut off once more.

This is a very nice horse who has not been training poorly at all, but he does look a bit light coming into the Derby.  He still looks a bit narrow bodied and lanky, as if he has some maturing left to do.  There is no doubt he is a talented horse, but whether he is ready for this race is the question.  And whether he can make it through a bigger field than he's ever seen before without running into trouble.  Corey Lanerie is going to have to give him a much better ride than he has in the last two to win this one.

Gun Runner leads the Kentucky Derby points standings with 151 after winning the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby.  The handsome chestnut has moved forward in each of his five career starts, at least numbers wise, and doesn't show any signs of slowing down.  Another from the barn of Steve Asmussen, this horse is coming off quite a layoff since the Louisiana Derby and would be bucking history if he won the roses on Saturday.  The only horse to win the Kentucky Derby after taking the Fair Grounds prize was Grindstone in 1996.  Recent winners of the race have not fared so well at Churchill Downs, however (last year's winner International Star never made the starting gate, and the 2014 winner Vicar's In Trouble was 19th). 

The son of record setting Pacific Classic winner Candy Ride has plenty going for him, though.  He is out of the talented graded stakes winner Quiet Giant, a half sister to Horse of the Year Saint Liam by top sire Giant's Causeway.  That pedigree is all class and so is this colt's race record.  He's won four out of five, with only one poor effort in the slop at Churchill Downs, where he finished fourth last fall in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes.  Never fear: he broke his maiden under the twin spires at first asking going a mile in October, so I don't think he dislikes the track and it won't be muddy on Derby Day.

Gun Runner has excellent tactical speed and is able to put himself in a good position early on, which will serve him well in the cavalry charge to the first turn.  The horses drawn inside of him are, for the most part, stone cold closers, so finding the rail and saving ground should be no problem for him.  He was perfectly comfortable running covered up along the rail in the Louisiana Derby before powering home 4 1/2 lengths to the good.  Even with a clean trip, I doubt Mo Tom could have caught him that day.

This colt could be eligible for a bounce after five straight races in which he ran a bigger speed figure than he did the previous start, but he has been training very forwardly.  His breeze in company on April 25th was particularly impressive, as he strode away from his workmate with ease and finished in 1:12 1/5 for the six furlongs.  All the ingredients are here: proven class, tactical speed, experience, and stamina.  With a savvy rider like Florent Geroux in the saddle, this horse should get a clean trip and could be very dangerous.

Gun Runner at Keeneland as a two-year-old (photo by Erin Sanderson)

 

My Man Sam will exit post six.  The Chad Brown trainee is light in the graded stakes experience department and has only started over the main track anywhere once.  Prior to his second place finish in the Blue Grass, all three of his starts had come over the inner track at Aqueduct.

 

By the versatile Tapit son Trappe Shot, who finished second in the Haskell Invitational and was also a graded stakes winning sprinter, My Man Sam is out of the graded stakes placed Arch daughter Lauren Byrd.  The latter is a half sister to multiple graded stakes winning turf runner Hudson Steele, both out of the stakes placed Smart Strike mare Strike the Sky.  There's plenty of classic stamina to be found in this colt's pedigree, and two turn races have never seemed to faze him.

 

In his second start and three-year-old debut, My Man Sam flew home 8 lengths in front of a maiden field at Aqueduct, moving forward tremendously around two turns from his sprint debut.  He was a solid second behind Matt King Coal next out in an optional claimer before invading Kentucky for the Blue Grass.  He was far back early and a bit rank, and it took him a while to really get going, but after fanning eight-wide on the turn he finished strongly to get second in his graded stakes debut. 

 

There's nothing to argue about in regards to this colt's appearance in the mornings.  His works have been steady and his gallops strong and smooth, though his rider may want to invest in a face mask (he does tend to have a habit of flipping his head in the air when he wants to do more).  Chad Brown has been on fire the last few weeks and he wouldn't bring a horse into the Derby without having him in tip top shape.  There's plenty to like about My Man Sam, though he isn't one of my top picks.

 

My Man Sam the day before the Blue Grass Stakes (photo by Erin Sanderson)

 

Post number seven will be filled by Oscar Nominated from the barn of Mike Maker.  The 50-1 morning line odds are probably well deserved, as this horse has run nowhere near the kinds of numbers other contenders have put up. 

 

This good-looking chestnut colt is by turf superstar Kitten's Joy and out of the Theatrical daughter Devine Actress.  His pedigree screams turf at first glance, but his dam did get her stakes win on the dirt.  His second dam, by Mr. Prospector, is also a half sister to record-setting Arlington Washington Futurity winner Sorcerer's Stone, so there's some dirt ability to be found there.

 

Oscar Nominated himself has only once run on anything other than turf, and that was in his last start, the Spiral Stakes.  He earned his career best speed figure in a gutsy win over Azar, but that was well below many of the others in this field.  The Spiral has coughed up some very good horses, including two Derby winners, in recent years: Street Sense, who finished fourth behind Derby runner-up Hard Spun in 2007 and 2011 Derby winner Animal Kingdom.  The latter was also making his first start on dirt in the Run for the Roses and had a primarily turf pedigree, so it has happened before.

 

This colt didn't look like he was working in 1:00 4/5 in his April 29th breeze and he galloped out as strongly as any I've seen all week.  His stride doesn't look particularly big and extended, but he certainly gets over the ground quickly.  He looked at home on the dirt, but he's going to have to take a major step up to be competitive against this field.  If he can take those steps forward, he could threaten the top contenders with his tactical speed and good post position, but if I were betting, I'd rather put my money somewhere else.

 

One of the most intriguing horses in the field simply due to his quirky personality and morning antics, Lani will break from post eight under leading Japanese jockey Yutaka Take.  Both foreign horses and winners of the UAE Derby have fared poorly in the Run for the Roses in the past, but Lani looks like the type who could turn those fortunes around.

 

The big gray burst onto the Derby scene with a grinding victory in the UAE Derby back in March over the star filly Polar River.  He shipped to the United States much earlier than any of his predecessors to get acclimated to the environment at Churchill Downs.  That was certainly a forward-thinking move on the part of his connections, but it hasn't stopped Lani from giving them fits in his preparations.

 

This colt has been nothing if not temperamental since his arrival at Churchill Downs.  In his first breeze stateside, he refused to run and barely went fast enough to earn a timed workout, getting five furlongs in 1:06 flat.  A week later, he didn't get into gear until nearly halfway through what was supposed to be another five furlong breeze, instead earning a three furlong time of :37 2/5.  Continuing his unusual (at least for us Americans) training schedule of long stints on the track in the mornings, Lani had his final breeze on Tuesday: a much more aggressive five furlongs in 1:01 flat, third fastest on the day.  His final eighth was a strong one in :12 2/5.

 

Lani may be as good as any of the others in the field if he decides to run.  In the UAE Derby, he fell flat on his face at the start and was far back early on before making a big middle move into contention down the back straight.  He won by just under a length in a solid final time. 

 

Another Tapit son, Lani's dam's side is all classic types.  His dam, Heavenly Romance, is a Japanese bred, grade one winning daughter of Sunday Silence out of the unraced Sadler's Wells daughter First Act.  The latter is a half sister to Irish St. Leger winning filly Dark Lomond, out of the Ribot daughter Arkadina.  Fourth dam Natashka won the Alabama Stakes at 10 furlongs and was the 1981 Broodmare of the Year.

 

I would be tempted to put money on Lani just for fun, but he also has a big shot in the race if he can stay out of trouble.  He's a big horse that would not be doing himself any favors if he had to hit the brakes; it would just take too long for him to re-rally.  He's one to keep in mind at the betting windows.

 

Right beside Lani will be another grey, Destin.  The Todd Pletcher trainee has followed an extremely unorthodox path to the starting gate, leaving some scratching their heads.  The eight week layoff is a huge concern, but if any trainer can have a horse ready to run in the Kentucky Derby off such a break, it's probably Pletcher.

 

The son of Giant's Causeway has a blue-blooded pedigree and looked good enough even as a yearling to sell for $400,000 at Keeneland in September 2014.  Out of the grade one winner Dream of Summer, he is a full brother to another talented gray colt, Creative Cause.  The latter was a grade one winner at two and a grade two winner at three, and finished fifth in the Derby and third in the Preakness. 

 

It's hard to argue with those kind of pedigree connections in a horse who set a track record in his last start, defeating two other major Kentucky Derby contenders in the process.  He made his stakes debut in January, finishing fourth behind Mo Tom and Tom's Ready in the LeComte at Fair Grounds.  It was his first two-turn race and he certainly moved forward in the Sam F. Davis a month later, roaring home by 2 1/4 lengths and earning his career high speed figure.  After getting bumped at the break and racing three-wide for much of the early going in the Tampa Bay Derby, Destin moved to the leader, Wood winner Outwork, turning for home as Brody's Cause sputtered far back.  Destin and Outwork slugged it out through the stretch, but it was Destin who got the better of his rival late, setting the track mark for a mile and a sixteenth.

 

Destin is another big-striding colt, and he's been smooth and professional in the mornings.  His April 29th work in company was very solid.  Rounding the turn, his ears were flicking back and forth, but coming down the stretch he got down to business and worked well around the turn into the backstretch.  He got an official time of 1:01 and was caught galloping out seven furlongs in 1:27 flat.

 

There were no physical issues that caused Destin's long layoff, at least nothing published.  The plan, according to Pletcher, was to run him fresh in the Kentucky Derby, and he does have the foundation of three starts this year, with some others having only run twice.  This is yet another talented colt with a bright future, and he gets a good post and excellent jockey in Javier Castellano to go with his tactical speed.  Destin could have a big shot to get to the wire first on Saturday.

 

That's almost the entire first half of the field, and this writer needs to get to sleep.  It is currently 4:30 am on Kentucky Derby morning.  I hope everyone's ready for a big day.  On a completely Derby-unrelated side note, go Shakhimat (in the American Turf)!