Welcome back for the second of three parts of a series
profiling the 2016 Kentucky Oaks contenders.
Last time, we took a look at the fillies filling post positions one
through five, ending with Dream Dance.
The second third of the field has some intriguing up and comers that
will be big prices at post time.
Breaking from post six is Mokat, from the West Coast stable
of Richard Baltas. Her main claim to
fame is running second behind the incomparable Songbird in the Santa Anita Oaks
and third behind that rival and Land Over Sea in the Santa Ysabel earlier in the
year.
Mokat's pedigree leans a bit toward sprint and mile speed,
yet her best race to date has come around two turns. By the very hot sire Uncle Mo, who will be
represented by several starters on Friday and Saturday, including Kentucky
Derby favorite and undefeated champion Nyquist, she has the potential to be
every bit as versatile as some of his other foals. She is out of the unraced Flashy Frolic, a
daughter of stakes winning Exclusive Native son Premiership. Premiership earned over $200,000 in the
1980s, racing primarily in sprint races.
Flashy Frolic is a half sister to multiple graded stakes winner Smok'n
Frolic, winner of stakes events from 5 to 9 furlongs while earning over $1.5
million. The latter produced Hunter's
Bay (by Ghostzapper), winner of multiple graded events in Canada up to 10
furlongs. Third dam Cherokee Frolic won
numerous stakes events, including the Test Stakes at Saratoga in 1981, and is
the second dam of millionaire handicap horse Super Frolic. This female family is definitely live and
consistently churning out classy blacktype earners, making a filly like Mokat, who appears
to be coming into her own, even more interesting.
Mokat's road to the Oaks has been a little different from
some of the others. She broke her maiden
at a mile on the turf by 5 1/2 lengths at Del Mar before running a solid second
in the Jimmy Durante Stakes in November.
She faded to fourth after leading through strong fractions in an
optional claimer in her three-year-old debut at a flat mile on the main track
at Santa Anita, then again led and faded at a mile on the turf in
February. Her first main track stakes
start was her strongest to date in the Santa Ysabel, where she dropped back to
seventh and made one run to finish third, more than 7 lengths behind
Songbird. Without that champion filly,
Mokat would have been the winner of the Santa Anita Oaks but she was no match
for her. She kicked on home very
well, however, after once more laying several lengths off the pace and did her
best running late. It was a solid effort
and she looks to move forward, despite her previous best Brisnet numbers being
well below some of the others in the field.
This filly has been training forwardly in the mornings, and
she looks like she's matured very well this season. She gets over the track at Churchill Downs
almost effortlessly, despite not having a timed work over it. In her last work on the 26th at Santa Anita,
she fired a bullet in 1:13 4/5 for six panels.
This is a filly moving forward, and while I don't think she
will win the big race, she has a live shot to hit the board. She has been improving in the afternoons and
looking strong in the mornings and despite never finding the wire first in a
stakes event, she is definitely one to take a look at.
The other Uncle Mo filly in the race will break right beside
Mokat from the seven. Hailing from the
illustrious barn of Todd Pletcher, Mo d'Amour exits New York with three wins,
including a stakes victory, to her name.
She gets the services of Joel Rosario for the first time in her career,
and that jockey and trainer combination has always been dangerous.
Mokat at Del Mar as a two-year-old (photo by Erin Sanderson)
Also by Uncle Mo, Mo d'Amour has a female family full of
European influences beyond the second generation. Her dam is the
unraced Scat Daddy mare, Neverthesame, who was actually a RNA at $47,000 in
2012 in foal with Mo d'Amour at Keeneland November. Her sire, the late multiple grade one winner
Scat Daddy, always seemed to get good young horses, including one of last
year's Kentucky Derby horses, El Kabeir.
Second dam Salut D'Amour is an Irish-bred stakes winning sprinter by
Danehill Dancer and out of a daughter of Sadler's Wells. Her dam line contains primarily sprint and mile
influences, yet her best speed figures have come around two turns.
Mo d'Amour has won twice in four starts this year with two
third place finishes. She got her stakes
qualifications in the Busher at Aqueduct on the inner track, also earning her
best late pace number in winning by two lengths. In that race, she got an ideal trip along the
rail, tracking a modest pace just inside of the favorite, Katniss the
Victor. She looked to hang a little as
the top three made their moves rounding the turn, but she picked it up while
swinging to the outside and ground her way to victory, finishing very well
late. In her most recent start, she was
demolished for the second time in her career by Lewis Bay in the muddy Gazelle
Stakes. (She had previously run into
that one in the Demoiselle, where she finished an uninspiring seventh.) Battling for the lead early outside the
pacesetter, Mo d'Amour was caught between horses turning for home as Lewis Bay
ranged up to the outside. She found
herself flat-footed through the stretch and was absolutely no match for the
winner or Royal Obsession, who finished second.
This looks like a bit of dainty filly from the photos I've
seen, and she even seems to tiptoe as she hits the ground in the videos I've
seen of her training. She had a very good
breeze on the 28th, going four panels in :48.20, 7th fastest of 22 at the
distance.
Mo d'Amour comes from the same connections that brought us
Princess of Sylmar a few years ago and has followed a similar road: winning the
Busher and finishing on the board in the Gazelle. That memorable filly won the Oaks at 38-1. According to an article on the Bloodhorse,
the decision was made to send Mo d'Amour to the Oaks after a couple of strong workouts
following the Gazelle. Pletcher usually
doesn't bring three-year-olds to Churchill Downs that don't have some serious
potential, but this filly doesn't look to be in anywhere near the same league
as Princess of Sylmar, who won four of six, including two stakes races, going
into the Oaks. Of course, hindsight is
twenty-twenty, and back then we had no idea how good the Princess actually
was. Anything could happen, but I would
personally look elsewhere.
Another of Lewis Bay's defeated rivals, and Steve Asmussen's
second of three Oaks hopefuls, is Royal Obsession. The big, gray daughter of Tapit has shown
potential since she was a weanling, when she sold for $550,000 at the Keeneland
November sale. As a yearling, she went
for $1 million at Fasig Tipton in August, then sold again just last November
for $1.5 million to Stonestreet Stables.
Royal Obsession has a blue-blooded pedigree. Her sire, Tapit, is one of the premier
stallions in North America and has been the leading sire of the last two years,
commanding a stud fee of $300,000. He
gets very good fillies, including champions Untapable and Stardom Bound, and
grade one winners Tapitsfly, Joyful Victory, Careless Jewel, and Zazu. Her dam, Rote, is a winning daughter of Tiznow
out of the Storm Cat mare Song to Remember.
Song to Remember also produced the grade one winner Magnificent Song, as
well as Mindful Music, dam of Venezuelan champion The Mindfulangel. Third dam, Wedding Reception, is a daughter
of Round Table and out of a half sister to Mr. Leader.
Royal Obsession won her first two starts before making her
stakes debut in the Rachel Alexandra at Fair Grounds, won by Venus
Valentine. She ran with that one early
on and actually made her move before Venus Valentine, rolling up on the far
outside before hanging through the middle of the stretch. She finished on well to get fourth, beaten
only 1 3/4 lengths for the win. She
earned her best speed figure in the Gazelle, running a length and a half behind
a geared down Lewis Bay. She was rank
early after getting bumped near the start and raced in behind horses down the
back straight. She swung out turning for
home but was simply outrun by Lewis Bay.
Royal Obsession has been training solidly at Churchill Downs
since her run in the Gazelle Stakes. Her
breeze on April 25th was very good, going five in 1:00 flat, second fastest of
34 that day. She had another easy half
mile breeze on May 2nd in :50 2/5 in her final preparation for the race. Having not seen any video of her training, I
can only assume that she is training well approaching the race and looking to
improve in the Oaks, based on comments by her connections in video and print.
This is a big, strong filly, as many Tapits are, and she
appears to need a little time to get rolling, which will probably not serve her
well on Oaks day. There are quite a few
fillies with a similar running style that will likely cause some traffic
turning for home, and if Florent Geroux can't give this one a good, clean trip
that doesn't carry her very wide, she probably has no shot. Anything can happen, though, and she has
certainly moved forward in each of her starts, so she could be a reasonable
longshot to keep an eye on tomorrow.
Another longshot will follow Royal Obsession in the post
parade: Paola Queen. The Flatter
daughter comes from the barn of Gustavo Delgado, and has raced almost solely at
Gulfstream Park throughout her career.
She owns just one win in a maiden in five starts.
Paola Queen has a more blue collar pedigree than most of the
fillies in the race. She is by the A.P.
Indy son Flatter who has only recently risen in the ranks of Kentucky
stallions, with horses such as $3.5 million earner Flat Out and one of last
year's early Derby favorites, Upstart,
making noise on the track in the last few years. Her dam is the multiple stakes winning
sprinter Kadira, a daughter of the somewhat successful sire Kafwain. Second dam, Raw Gold by Rahy, was a multiple
graded stakes winner in the mid 1990s and a half sister to grade one winner
Point Ashley.
The dark bay filly broke her maiden sprinting on Valentine's
Day, setting the pace and turning back a strong challenge late to win by a
length. She made her very next start in
the Gulfstream Park Oaks where she faced fellow Oaks starter Go Maggie Go. It takes a pretty nice horse to go straight
from a maiden sprint into a two turn graded event and have any kind of success,
and that is exactly what the top two finishers in that race did. Paola Queen jumped out to an early lead
through pretty quick fractions over a tiring track before being passed by both
Go Maggie Go and Off the Tracks. She
persevered gamely through the stretch and actually re-rallied a bit to take
back second by a half length over the favorite and 6 lengths clear of
fourth.
This is another filly that has not put up very impressive
numbers, but she looks to be training well and performed admirably in her step
into graded stakes company. Her six
furlong breeze on the 28th in 1:13 3/5 was smooth and professional, and she
looks like a completely different filly (at least in these videos) than she was
in the Gulfstream Park Oaks. She
improved in leaps and bounds from her maiden win, in my opinion, and is drawn
inside of most of the serious speed. She
loses Javier Castellano to Rachel's Valentina, but gets Emisael Jaramillo, one
of Florida's top jockeys who is winning on 20% of his mounts this year. Paola Queen will definitely be part of the
early pace, but it's up in the air as to whether she will be around in the
end. She is gritty and hard trying, and
that inherent trait could keep her going further than another filly with
identical physical traits. I would
expect her to be around at the end only if the pace isn't too fast.
The final horse in the second third of the post parade is
Venus Valentine, yet another granddaughter of A.P. Indy from the barn of Tom
Amoss. She broke through in graded
company in February after three straight off the board finishes (all three on a
different surface) as a 74-1 longshot in the Rachel Alexandra at Fair Grounds.
Venus Valentine is a daughter of Flatter's full brother,
Congrats, sire of multiple grade one winner Turbulent Descent and one of the
early Oaks favorites Polar River. She is
out of the multiple stakes winning sprinter Valentine Fever, a daughter of Stormin
Fever. Valentine Fever is the most
accomplished foal from her winning Gilded Time dam, Betshe Hath a Way. If you look back far enough, Venus
Valentine's fifth dam is Quillopoly, the granddam of No Class, one of the
greatest blue hens of the later 20th century.
The dark chestnut Congrats filly broke her maiden at first
asking at Ellis Park before finishing fourth in the Arlington Washington Lassie
and then fifth and fourth in a pair of allowance optional claimers. After exiting that last effort at a mile on
the turf, she headed for the Rachel Alexandra.
Breaking flat footed and getting bumped from post three, she dropped as
much as 14 lengths off a reasonably swift pace.
She didn't even enter the screen until they turned for home, then
charged up the rail for a shocking win. Garnering
more respect in the Fair Grounds Oaks, she went off at 13-1. Once again she broke last, but only managed
to pace tiring rivals to finish fifth.
The pace was a bit slower in the Fair Grounds Oaks, and they came home
significantly faster; the final 5/16 in the Fair Grounds Oaks was run in
:32.04, as opposed to the :33.33 of the Rachel Alexandra.
Venus Valentine has been training nicely in the mornings and
seems as though she's come out of her last race with no ill effects. She had a very fast breeze on April 20th,
going six panels in a bullet 1:11 4/5.
Her final work was a bit slower: four furlongs in :49 2/5. Her works at Churchill Downs are actually
stronger than what she showed down at the Fair Grounds.
This filly is deservedly a longshot, with slow speed figures
and an inconsistent race record. She
could move forward, however, with the addition of blinkers that will, hopefully
for her connections, probably sharpen her up in the early stages. It's always a gamble shaking up a horse's
equipment right before a big race, but with her complete lack of early speed,
she looks like the type that could use blinkers. A strong pace in the Oaks will move her up at
the wire, but there are plenty of classy speed and stalker types that she will
have to get by.
Needless to say, the winner of the lilies is probably not
coming out of this middle third of the field.
There are a couple of intriguing longshots that could pick up a piece,
especially Mokat and Royal Obsession.
The gritty little Paola Queen could make a bid for hitting the super, as
well, if only on heart.
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