The 2016 Kentucky Oaks Field (Part 1 of 3)

This year's Kentucky Oaks draws another full field, with one of my favorite fillies from last year on the also-eligible list (darn).  There are quite a few very high quality girls in the race, even lacking Songbird, and it seems that we can look forward to an exciting race on Friday.  If you're interested in such things, it'll be a great betting race, with tons of value across the board.  (Personally, I avoid betting.  I can pick them all day while at the track until I actually put money on them.)

The first of the fourteen to load into the gate will be Terra Promessa.  From the barn of Steven Asmussen, the bay filly is owned and was bred by Stonestreet Stables.  These are the same connections who campaigned her illustrious sire, Curlin, to multiple Horse of the Year titles.  Unlike her sire, though, she is not entering the first weekend in May with an undefeated record, but she has come close.  Her only stumbling block was her first start at Keeneland in October, where she hopped at the break and never quite settled before finishing third.  Her second race, this time at Churchill Downs and around two turns, was a victorious one, where she  tracked a slow pace and swung wide to draw clear as the even money favorite. 

Despite being by a classic-winning Horse of the Year, Terra Promessa may be slightly limited in distance.  Her siblings have all been sprinters, even by sires such as Awesome Again and Eskendereya.  She is by far the most accomplished of those siblings, as well.  Her half sister by Eskendereya, Mio Me, has only managed to be stakes placed (in a sprint on the turf) thus far. 

In her stakes bow, the Curlin filly thoroughly trounced her more highly regarded stablemate, Nickname, in the slop to win the Honeybee Stakes at Oaklawn Park.  She settled between horses just off the rail before moving three wide under her own power turning for home.  Briefly alongside Nickname, she drew off through the stretch under mild urging.  She earned her highest BRIS speed rating in that race, an 88, which is listed on their website as a "typical open claiming $10,000 winner."  Yikes.  Her closing pace rating was particularly slow there, as well.  You can't argue that she keeps winning, but her speed figures and closing fractions leave a little something to be desired.

She was very rank in her last race while in behind horses and only settled when she was allowed to pull her rider alongside the pacesetter.  As usual, she took the lead at the head of the stretch, but did not draw away as her stablemate, Taxable, roared up outside of her.  Both fillies seemed to run out of gas a bit in the last sixteenth, but Terra Promessa, the heavy favorite, held on narrowly to the wire.   

I haven't seen any videos of her training at Churchill Downs, but her workout pattern since the Fantasy has remained very similar to her previous works: leisurely four and five furlong breezes.  She's had three works over the surface, her most recent being an easy four panels in :50.80 on Monday. 

Terra Promessa is 10-1 on the morning line, and once bettors start looking closely at her past performances and speed figures, I would expect those odds to creep up a bit despite her record.  She's never been nine furlongs, and personally I think her wins around two turns are on class alone, not two turn stamina.  She's up against a solid group in the Oaks and probably won't be helped by her inside post.  Were I betting, I would look elsewhere. 

Right beside Terra Promessa will be the gorgeous Weep No More, winner of this year's Ashland Stakes at Keeneland, for which I was present.  On the day prior to the race, she caught my eye on the track, though I was unfamiliar with her.  Had I known exactly who I was looking at, I probably would have put money down and cashed in on her long odds. 

With four starts under her belt, the lovely chestnut daughter of Mineshaft is undefeated in three starts this season.  Like Terra Promessa, her only loss came in her debut race, a seven furlong maiden at Churchill Downs in which she finished eighth at 45-1.  After witnessing her racing style, her poor finish was probably due more to the lack of distance than any disliking for the Churchill Downs track.  She is a deep closer with a tremendous turn of foot (just watch the Ashland replay and look at her monstrous late pace figure of 104 from BRISnet) that has relished two turns since her sophomore debut at Tampa in January.   

As a two-year-old last year, she sold for $120,000 at the OBS March sale.  I would have expected a filly with her pedigree to bring a little more, but I may be biased toward Mineshaft fillies who are granddaughters of Flute.  Her sire has been very nice, with some good horses to his credit, including the 2015 Breeders' Cup Classic runner-up Effinex and three-time grade one winner and Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic runner-up It's Tricky.  Weep No More is inbred to Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew (3S x 3D) through her grandsire A.P. Indy and second dam, the Oaks winner Flute.  She is also inbred to Secretariat (4S x 4D) through his royal daughters Weekend Surprise and Terlingua (dams of A.P. Indy and Storm Cat).  Her dam, Crosswinds, raced only once and finished seventh on the synthetic at Turfway.  She was sold as a broodmare prospect in 2009 for $140,000.  She is a young mare, with only one other foal to race who is a maiden in 3 starts this season, though with two second place finishes.  Crosswinds's half sister, Filimbi, is a grade two winner on the turf (and a fan favorite due to her slightly crazy nature). 

From her training videos, Weep No More looks as if she has physically matured a bit since her run in the Ashland and she gets over the track well.  Her stride is efficient with plenty of propulsion from behind.  Her April 23 work at Churchill wasn't particularly encouraging, however, as she jumped to the wrong lead for several strides before switching back and finishing short of her workmate.  Rusty Arnold, a perennial top trainer at Keeneland, said of her April 30 work that she was preparing for the Oaks similarly to how she trained prior to the Ashland. 

Weep No More was well behind the pace in her stakes debut in the Suncoast at Tampa Bay and made a flying move rounding the turn for home, bulling her way through traffic and weaving to the outside of the leader to win going away.  Her Ashland run was similar, though the field was much smaller and she was much, much farther out of it early.  In the opening stages, she looked as though she was out for a morning gallop instead of a race as she dropped nearly 15 lengths out of it down the backstretch.  She was still almost 7 lengths off the lead at the head of the shortened stretch at Keeneland, then roared home in the final sixteenth to win by a neck.  She handed Cathryn Sophia her first career defeat and also took down the highly regarded Rachel's Valentina and Carina Mia.  Seeing it in person was nothing short of scintillating, and if she can duplicate the effort (hopefully closer to the pace) and get through traffic as she did in the Suncoast, she is a major threat for the Oaks. 

Weep No More wins the 2016 Central Bank Ashland Stakes (Photo by Erin Sanderson)

 

Lewis Bay, one of the top fillies in the race, drew the third post position.  Trained by Chad Brown, she has never been worse than second in five starts.  She was second in her Belmont sprint debut before winning her final two starts at two by open lengths, including a victory in the 9 furlong Demoiselle Stakes.   

The petite bay filly is a half sister to full brother graded stakes winners Misconnect and Winslow Homer, who both showed ability from 7 to 9 furlongs.  She is by the very hot sire Bernardini, a multiple classic winning son of A.P. Indy who has seen plenty of success both here and abroad.  Lewis Bay's pedigree also shows us the Rasmussen Factor: she is inbred 3S x 3D to the great Weekend Surprise through that mare's classic winning and producing sons A.P. Indy and Summer Squall.    

As a two-year-old, Lewis Bay was visually impressive in her Demoiselle win, swinging five or six wide turning for home and mowing down the leaders.  She ran down the stretch straight as an arrow until switching to her left lead in the final yards.  She only earned an 87 from BRISnet for the win, but she has since improved by quite a bit. 

In her three year old debut in February at Gulfstream, Lewis Bay ran into a rolling Cathryn Sophia.  She was no match for that one, finishing seven lengths behind in second.  Interestingly enough, that was still her fastest late pace number since she exited sprint races in her third start.  It was her most recent race in the Gazelle, however, that makes one want to take a closer look at her.  She was a good bit closer to the pace than in her loss in the Davona Dale and three-wide the entire way.  She ranged up alongside the pacesetters turning for home with her ears flicking, then drove home powerfully, leading at one point by five lengths before being geared down for the finish.  She did switch her leads back and forth once she got to the front, but she still came home her final eighth significantly faster than the boys in the Wood Memorial later in the day and finished just over three tenths of a second faster.  Her speed figure of 99 is the best last-race number any of this field has run, and an 11 point improvement from her previous best.  She soundly beat fellow Oaks starters Royal Obsession and Mo d'Amour. 

Since the Gazelle, she has been looking her usual strong self.  Her work on April 23 was solid, despite a slow time for the four furlongs (50.20).  She did still jump leads crossing the wire, but it doesn't seem much of a concern for her trainer, and she was under a stout hold while outside of her workmate.  This filly is all business when the going gets tough, and doesn't seem to switch her leads unless she's not being pushed, such as during the stretch run of the Gazelle.  She has created plenty of buzz in the mornings at Churchill Downs with the way she has been training.   

One of the classiest in the field, with the pedigree to match, Lewis Bay is deserving of second or third choice at post time.  She is undefeated around two turns, but a bit slower than the others except on that muddy track at Aqueduct.  There are still plenty of question marks, but Chad Brown is confident in his charge, and that has to say something.  This is definitely one to keep an eye on. 

Dale Romans has live horses in both the Derby and the Oaks, with Brody's Cause going on Saturday and Go Maggie Go set to break from the four post on Friday.  Another of my personal favorites, Go Maggie Go burst onto the scene with a shocking win in the Gulfstream Park Oaks in just her second career start. 

Anyone who knows me well enough knows that I adore Ghostzapper and thus his foals, and Go Maggie Go is no different.  Unfortunately, Ghostzapper hasn't set the world on fire as a sire, but he does tend to get some good ones at seemingly random distances and surfaces, from handicap types like Moreno to turf milers like Za Approval to dirt sprinters such as Judy the Beauty and top synthetic horses like Canada's Shaman Ghost.  Go Maggie Go is out of the Tale of the Cat mare Magibel, who also produced the late graded stakes winner Wallyanna who took the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame Stakes at Saratoga in 2014.  Another of my Keeneland spots, Wallyanna was another that I had a soft spot for, so Go Maggie Go was an automatic attention getter for me, despite her female family being littered with speed influences.  She's outrun her pedigree in impressive fashion so far, so there seems to be little reason for concern about an extra sixteenth of a mile from her last start. 

It really says something when a typically more conservative trainer such as Dale Romans takes a filly straight from a sprint debut to a two turn graded stakes.  Go Maggie Go has clearly shown him plenty of ability.  In the Gulfstream Park Oaks, she pressed a strong pace over a sloppy track before seizing command from the pacesetter Paola Queen entering the turn for home.  She shrugged off a challenge from heavy favorite Off the Tracks and stayed well clear to the wire as Paola Queen re-rallied. 

Unfortunately, I have yet to find a video of any of her works, but did catch a gallop from April 27 at Churchill Downs.  Physically, she looks like a very solid, mature filly compared to some of the others, and her way of going is very smooth and easy.  The video cut off as she was accelerating a bit down the backstretch, but I did not envy her rider, who looked to be water skiing by that point.  Her workouts have been solid, with her last breeze before the race a leisurely move in 1:03.60 on the 29^th.  According to a quote by her trainer, that was exactly what he wanted: slow and easy.   

We've seen so little of Go Maggie Go on the track that it's difficult to tell just what she will do.  She isn't a need the lead type, as seen in her sprint debut, and may have been particularly sharp coming off of that six furlong race against fillies who had run a bit longer in the Gulfstream Park Oaks.  She has the ability to be near the lead and still finish strongly, which is definitely a plus if the pace is slow.  Her tactical speed should serve her well, and Luis Saez really knows his way to the wire first.  She has a lot of the look of her sire about her, and if that's not a reason for me to like a horse, I don't know what is.  Should she continue to move forward from her previous two starts, she is definitely one to watch out for as a betting value, as well.  Her morning line odds are 12/1 and may creep up before post time, with a lot of the money going to higher profile, more seasoned fillies. 

The most seasoned filly in the race will break from post five.  Dream Dance, trained by Neil Howard, has shown flashes of class in her nine-race career, but has yet to put out an effort anywhere near the level of some of the others.  Her highest Brisnet figure is a 90, and that came in her third place finish (disqualified to 9th after testing positive for an overage of bute) in the Golden Rod Stakes last November at Churchill Downs. 

Dream Dance is by the fan favorite Preakness and Belmont winner Afleet Alex, also the sire of Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Texas Red and multiple grade one winner Iotapa, among others.  Her dam is the winning Vindication mare This Cat Can Dance, out of multiple graded stakes winning sprinter Katz Me If You Can.  Her third dam, Cuddles, was a grade one winner and granddaughter of Square Angel, who pops up in the tail female lines of quite a few top runners, including 1990 Kentucky Oaks winner Seaside Attraction (dam of champion two-year-old filly Golden Attraction and the grade one winner Cape Town, sire of 2003 Oaks winner Bird Town), Canadian champion Key to the Moon, English group one winner Music Show, Travers and Woodward winner Alpha, and the great "Horse of the World" Fantastic Light, among others.   

With all of her racing experience, Dream Dance has only two wins to her credit, her most recent victory coming in an allowance N1X (non-winners of a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter or non-winners of two races).  She was floated out a bit through the stretch by the pacesetter, but closed well four-wide.  The final fractions were nothing particularly impressive (last quarter in 26.14 and final sixteenth in 6.87).  Prior to that effort, she made her first start of the year in the Fair Grounds Oaks.  She dropped well off the pace and running in seventh and skimming the rail.  About midstretch, she moved through a tight hole between horses and ran on very strongly for second, galloping out with the winner, Land Over Sea. 

This filly has been training very aggressively leading up to the race.  She worked five panels in :59 3/5 on the 29th, eighth fastest of 53 at the distance.  She's a good-looking filly who looks to be on the improve and her gallops have been strong, as well as her works.   

Despite her winning her last start and training strongly for the race, Dream Dance is going to be a big longshot.  Her numbers have not been impressive and she has yet to break through in a stakes race.  She is a solid late running type who could get a small piece of the purse, but she will have to take a big step up to be really competitive against this bunch.

Of the first five fillies that will be going postward on Friday evening, two in particular stand out: Weep No More and Lewis Bay.  They couldn't be more different in appearance or running style, but they have both been impressive on their way to the Run for the Lilies.  It would be little surprise if either of them were on top at the wire.