The only daughter of Rachel Alexandra, Rachel's Valentina will exit the paddock wearing the number 11 under John Velazquez. The Todd Pletcher trainee garnered attention very early as the second and likely last foal from her great dam and did not disappoint, breaking her maiden at first asking at Saratoga and winning a grade one in only her second start.
Rachel's Valentina's pedigree is simply full of superlatives. Her brilliant, classic-winning sire has already been mentioned previously as the sire of Lewis Bay, and her dam is one of the best race fillies we have seen in decades. Interestingly enough, both of this filly's parents won the Preakness Stakes and were champion three-year-olds in their respective years. Rachel Alexandra, by the excellent filly sire Medaglia d'Oro (seriously, he gets freaky good fillies; he also has Songbird, who I feel bears an uncanny resemblance to "Rachel"), is out of the stakes winning Roar mare Lotta Kim. Up until this point, the female family appears to be consistently producing useful stakes types, but nothing truly on the grade one level like Rachel Alexandra and her daughter.
Rachel's Valentina has done nothing wrong in her four race career, winning the grade one Spinaway in impressive fashion in only her second career start. Her very first two-turn race was in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies at Keeneland, in which she finished second to the undefeated champion Songbird. It would be five months before we would get see her race again. Barbara Banke, owner of Stonestreet Stables, said she "was a little light going into the Breeders' Cup" and that they "wanted to make sure she was 150% before we put her back in training." She was definitely up against it in her first start back. The field was short but classy in this year's Ashland Stakes, also drawing the then undefeated Cathryn Sophia, highly regarded Carina Mia and stakes performers Weep No More and Banree. She was a handful for Florent Geroux through much of the early stages of the race before settling down the backstretch in second. Turning for home, it looked like the three-horse race everyone expected, with Cathryn Sophia, "Rachel Jr.", and Carina Mia head and head turning for home. She battled very gamely between horses and looked a winner in the last 50 yards until Weep No More appeared out of the clouds. Considering that it was her first start in five months, it was a very, very good race that she sorely needed. We can certainly expect her to be fitter and readier for the Oaks than she was at Keeneland.
This filly has definitely been training more sharply since the Ashland. Her half mile breeze on April 28th in company was excellent. She drew clear of her workmate, who was getting scrubbed on pretty strongly, with little to no urging from her rider and galloped out smoothly and professionally well down the backstretch. She seems to get over the Churchill track very well and has a gorgeous way of going, with a lot of forward reach and propulsion and extension in the rear.
Rachel's Valentina is a very deserving morning line favorite. She may not have run the fastest numbers of the fillies in the race, but she is probably the most consistently at the top since her career began. The Oaks wasn't even the original plan with her, according to Banke, but she earned her way there. She gets John Velazquez back, and Todd Pletcher's horses put up monstrous numbers second off the layoff. There is no doubt she will be primed for a big effort on Friday, and it would not surprise me if she won the race that earned her mother a spot in the Preakness Stakes.
Rachel's Valentina after the Ashland Stakes (photo by Erin Sanderson)
Also exiting the Ashland is Cathryn Sophia, trained by John Servis. Prior to her run at Keeneland, she was undefeated in four starts, all one turn events. She does have the most consistently high speed numbers of any filly in the field, even in her third place finish last out in her first start around two turns.
Cathryn Sophia is by the useful sire Street Boss, a multiple grade one winning son of Street Cry who, unlike many of his sire's get, excelled in sprints. He seems to pass on that speedy trait to many of his foals, though his son Danza did win the 2014 Arkansas Derby and finish third in the Kentucky Derby. Her dam's side doesn't lend itself well to the type of nine furlong stamina that Cathryn Sophia will need, either, despite her unraced dam, Sheave, being by Mineshaft. It's hard to tell how Sheave's sire will affect Cathryn Sophia, since she is the mare's first foal. Second dam, Belterra, by Unbridled, won the 8 1/2 furlong Golden Rod Stakes, but her only stakes-winning foal (also by a son of Street Cry, the Derby winner Street Sense) got her blacktype in a seven furlong race. Third dam Cruising Haven got the multiple graded stakes winning sprinter Royal Haven by a son of the great stamina influence Graustark, though she is the second dam of the neat Russian classic winner Persey Bars.
Before the Ashland, Cathryn Sophia was perfect. In her first two starts, she broke her maiden by 12 lengths then won the Gin Talking at Laurel by 16, earning her highest Brisnet figure of 102. She stepped it up into graded company for the Forward Gal Stakes at Gulfstream in January, taking back off the pace for the first time in her career before exploding clear through the stretch to win by 5 1/2. The scene in the Davona Dale was much the same, though she was a bit closer to a more moderate pace, where she stunned Lewis Bay by seven lengths. In her most recent start, she was widest throughout while pressing the pace before making her run four-wide turning for home. She got the lead briefly before fading just a touch and relinquishing second to Rachel's Valentina as Weep No More swept by both of them.
Cathryn Sophia has always trained particularly well in the mornings, with bullets showing up next to her workouts seven times since November. Her last work was particularly impressive. She breezed five furlongs at Keeneland and did not in any way look as if she were clipping off a :59 3/5 pace. She actually looks as if she's grown a bit since the Ashland, with a bit more muscle in her hind end than when I saw her in April. She is a compact little filly with a quick, snappy stride that actually puts me in mind a bit of Xtra Heat. As much of a fan as I am of Cathryn Sophia, I don't see her winning the Oaks. Her pedigree, physicality, and race performance all point to her being a brilliant sprinter who can carry her speed up to a mile at the highest level. She could still pick up a piece of it on grit alone, but I feel her best running going forward will be around only one turn and breaking from the outside as a speed horse will do her few favors.
Cathryn Sophia prior to the Ashland Stakes (photo by Erin Sanderson)
Breaking from post 13 is another filly who will definitely be one of the top choices for the big dance. Land Over Sea, from the same connections as Derby favorite Nyquist, was racing in Southern California for much of her career and subsequently was defeated five times by champion Songbird. As a two-year-old, she made five starts, winning only one - a maiden at a mile on the turf - but finishing second in the Chandelier and third in the Del Mar Debutante.
Land Over Sea is by record-setting Wood Memorial winner Bellamy Road, who has seen only moderate success as a sire. His highest earning foal to date is upset Wood winner Toby's Corner, who defeated Uncle Mo in a shocker in 2011. Her Pulpit dam, Belle Watling, has also produced the grade two placed War Story and $200,000 earner Draw Two. Second dam Polly Adler, by Housebuster, got stakes winner and producer Yoursmineours and is a half sister to 1987 Champion Two-Year-Old Filly Epitome (who produced $2 million E Dubai by Pulpit). It's not the prettiest pedigree at first glance, but the quality is certainly there.
As a three-year-old, Land Over Sea has blossomed. Following her seventh place finish in her final start at two in the Breeders' Cup, she ran second twice to Songbird in the Las Virgenes and Santa Ysabel in two good efforts, leaving fellow Oaks contender Mokat well behind her in the latter. In her most recent race, the Fair Grounds Oaks, she settled several lengths off the pace while three wide through the first turn. She made a big move turning for home and was into second by the time they straightened for the drive. She looked to hang a little early in the stretch but came on late down that long run for home to win going away by 4 1/2 lengths.
Land Over Sea has been looking sharp since her win at Fair Grounds and was a handful in her last breeze at Keeneland on the 29th. Her rider wasn't asking her for much speed and kept her well off the rail, but her time of 1:01.80 was solid and comparable to a lot of the O'Neill works that I'm familiar with. She has definitely matured physically in the last couple of months and looks to be in good flesh heading into the Oaks. She galloped very aggressively on Wednesday and seemed to get over the track well. This filly has a big stride that carries her over the ground with seemingly little effort, and I highly doubt we've seen the best of what she can offer in the afternoons.
The outside post for this filly is a bit daunting, but if she can settle and drop back going into the first turn, she shouldn't be too wide. She will have to navigate some traffic, which is something she hasn't done too much of in her previous races, but she is one of the toughest, most seasoned fillies in the field, and her experience should serve her well. She is certainly one of my favorites for the Oaks and will be a short price at post time.
Land Over Sea on track at Keeneland on April 9th (photo by Erin Sanderson)
The last filly through the post parade will be Winchell Thoroughbreds' Taxable. The lightly raced filly is the third shot in the Oaks for trainer Steve Asmussen but will definitely be a longshot.
Taxable has a very commercially appealing pedigree. She is by previously mentioned leading sire Tapit and out of a royally bred half sister to Kentucky Oaks winner Summerly. Her dam, Jackpot Joanie, could not duplicate her sister's success on the track, but the Giant's Causeway filly did break her maiden at Churchill Downs. Besides Summerly, second dam Here I Go, by Mr. Prospector, did not produce much. Her third dam is Shufflin in Seattle, by Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew and out of Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies runner-up Darby Shuffle, also a half sister to multiple stakes winner Beat All, who finished third in the 1999 Epsom Derby.
This leggy chestnut filly broke her maiden in impressive fashion back in June of last year at Churchill Downs, airing by seven lengths in a six furlong sprint. She must have had some issues as a two-year-old since she didn't race again until Mach of this year, winning an optional claimer with ease at Oaklawn. Her late pace rating from Brisnet in that race was actually the highest of any horse in the field at 105. (Only one other in the race has run a triple digit late pace figure around two turns, and that is Weep No More.) Bumped up into graded stakes for her third and most recent start, Taxable settled further off the pace than ever in her career before edging into contention under her own power on the turn. She made a big run at the winner, her stablemate Terra Promessa, but was very green through the stretch, drifting in and out and jumping to her off lead late. Her speed figures have been nothing to write home about (her highest is an 89 from Brisnet), but she is definitely improving and it can't hurt to have Mike Smith in the irons on the big day.
Without any videos of this filly training, I can't say for certain just how she looks coming into the race. Her workout pattern in the last month has been similar to the rest of her short career, with her most recent breeze coming on May 2nd. She went a half mile in :50 2/5 over a track labeled good in her final preparations.
She's definitely going to be a big price at post time, but she doesn't have the worst shot of any filly I've ever seen in the Oaks. Her connections must be hoping for her to be able to relax under Mike Smith and take back to get over to the inside before the first turn. I doubt she's speedy enough to outrun fillies like Cathryn Sophia, Rachel's Valentina, and Paola Queen to get the rail on the front end. The Kentucky Oaks is certainly a tall order for an improving though inexperienced filly, and my thoughts are that she isn't quite ready for this big of a stage.
On the also-eligible list is one of my favorite fillies from last year: Dothraki Queen. The little bay filly comes from the barn of Kenny McPeek. Following her first two starts, in which she broke her maiden by seven on the turf at Ellis Park and then gamely won the Pocahontas Stakes at Churchill Downs, she hasn't had the best of luck, but it is my belief that she is a classy filly deserving of a shot in the Oaks should someone scratch.
Her pedigree, in my opinion, is as pretty as a picture, but it seems as though it would point more toward turf. (She defies it; her best speed figures have all come on the dirt.) She is by Pure Prize, a graded stakes winning son of Storm Cat whose foals seem to favor turf a bit, though he has plenty of stakes winners on the dirt. His best daughter was another of my favorites, the multiple grade one winner Pure Clan who captured the American Oaks and Flower Bowl Invitationals and finished second in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf and third in the Kentucky Oaks. Dothraki Queen is out of the winning Saint Ballado (love!) mare Sharaiji Blossom, a half sister to one of Hong Kong's great milers, Electronic Unicorn, as well as Kentucky Oaks winner Blushing K.D. and Canadian champion Ambitious Cat. Second dam Lilac Garden is a daughter of Roberto and third dam Balletomane is by Nijinsky and a half sister to record setting grade one winner Group Plan.
The last few races for Dothraki Queen have been a bit rough. She was almost a pinball at the start of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies but closed well to finish third at 25-1, only a length and a quarter behind Rachel's Valentina. She was extremely wide throughout the sloppy Golden Rod, won by Carina Mia. Her only start this year came on the turf in the Appalachian Stakes, where she ran poorly behind Catch a Glimpse after again being bothered at the start and traveling wide.
This is a very nice filly and I have faith in her moving forward. If by some miracle she manages to draw into the race, I think she gets a good closing trip from the rear of the field with Gary Stevens in the irons.
Dothraki Queen after her second place finish in the Alcibiades (photo by Erin Sanderson)
Ultimately, it seems that this year's Kentucky Oaks will come down to how fast they go early and how far some of these fillies actually want to run. At least a reasonable pace could set this one up for Weep No More, who has shown us no hesitation making her way through traffic in the past and should easily get a rail trip as she drops back in the early going, or Land Over Sea, who can also rate very well and come home strong. Rachel's Valentina will almost certainly be in the mix late with Cathryn Sophia doing her best to hang around until the wire. I'm a little biased toward Go Maggie Go and Weep No More, so it makes it very difficult for me to see the downsides to both (tremendous inexperience and deep closing style, respectively). My top picks are probably Rachel's Valentina and Land Over Sea, though with a potential fast pace, I very much like Weep No More to at least get a piece of it. I would have to take Mokat and Go Maggie Go as my longshot picks.
No matter how much I analyze the past performances on paper and go back and watch the races, look at pedigrees, and see training videos, this field just leaves my head spinning. It's a pretty evenly matched bunch, with a few up and comers that have loads of question marks and a top filly who I don't think can get two turns with the absolute best of them. I know who I will be rooting for, but who will you be betting on?
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