2017 Kentucky Derby Post Parade (Part 1)

Now that all the preps have been run, all the training completed, and post positions drawn, there is little left but to run the race.  The 2017 Road to the Kentucky Derby paints one of the most muddled pictures in recent memory, rife with inconsistency and injury.  The ups and downs of this year's Derby trail have been dramatic and downright baffling, from Classic Empire's physical setbacks and zany antics to the injury of the brilliant Mastery to a maiden named Irap blowing the Blue Grass Stakes wide open.  As if the racing gods have not thrown enough monkey wrenches into the mix, they've added one more: the forecast of three straight days of rain leading up to the big race.  There's little left to do but to make your picks and hope for the best, but if you're anything like me, your mind is still caught up in the whirlwind of all the crazy happenings of this season.

The post position draw didn't particularly help matters, as some of my long time favorites drew very wide and my "hunch horses" bookend the field in the 1 and 20 gates.  Some nice value horses did manage to get into favorable post positions, and Always Dreaming, the brilliant but inexperienced Florida Derby winner, could wind up in the best early position of all of them from post 5, assuming he doesn't come away from the gate with the same tightly wound aggression he has been displaying in his gallops and works.

Breaking from post no. 1 will be Lookin At Lee, a neat colt named for the head of the four-man partnership that owns him.  That partnership, L and N Racing, bought Lookin At Lee for $70,000 at Keeneland as a yearling a scant few months after starting their very first horse in a race and now find themselves in the Kentucky Derby.  I haven't seen video of this horse since April 24, but he looked to be getting over the Churchill surface effortlessly in his April 23 gallop.  He's never been much of a workhorse, so won't wow you with his breeze times, and it's not Asmussen's style to work them particularly fast, but I do like his way of going: long, low, and striding out beautifully in his gallop outs.

This is one horse that the inside post more than likely won't bother, either.  He drops so far out of it early on that he will have very little traffic to contend with rounding the clubhouse turn.  The trick here is to keep him from giving up too much ground in the opening stages of the race, hoping that he doesn't give himself too much to do in the stretch as he has in most of his previous races.  His last run in the Arkansas Derby, beaten only a length and a half by juvenile champion Classic Empire, was sneaky good.  He dove in toward the rail in the middle of the stretch, losing some momentum, then drifted back out under a hard left handed whip, but he was traveling every bit as well as, if not better than, Classic Empire in the final sixteenth. 

If any longshot horse has the pedigree for this race, it's Lookin At Lee.  His sire, Lookin At Lucky, probably should have won the Derby, but had a nightmare trip (also from the inside post).  He came back to win the Preakness and Haskell following a sixth place finish at Churchill, en route to his second Eclipse award.  His dam's side is loaded with black type and some nice two-turn influences, as well, including Langfuhr, 1987 Arkansas Derby winner and heavy Kentucky Derby favorite Demons Begone, and Belmont Stakes winning Horse of the Year Conquistador Cielo.

Lookin At Lee has plenty of upside: he will be getting the services of the savvy Corey Lanerie for the first time in his career in the Derby, he has been improving steadily all season as the distances get longer and has run monster late pace figures in his last two, and a solid ten furlong pedigree.  Of course, he also has plenty of question marks, as well.  His running style is not necessarily conducive to winning the Derby, although we've seen deep closers win on wet tracks in the last couple of decades, and he will be breaking from the dreaded inside post that has cursed many a talented horse, including his sire.  His speed figures don't quite match the best in the field, though it is my feeling that we haven't seen his best running yet.  This horse is one of my hunch horses and has been for the last month, so he's one I'll be keeping an eye on.

The overseas invader Thunder Snow did not draw well, either, and will be breaking from the second post position.  Historically, horses coming over after winning the UAE Derby (G2) have not done well on the first Saturday in May, but this colt just may be the most talented of the ones that I've seen in recent years.  Despite his obvious talent and class, I still feel as though this particular horse is much more suited to turf than he is to dirt. 

In his last two starts in Dubai, Thunder Snow has come home rather slowly and on wrong leads.  His win in the UAE Derby, while very game and defeating several other very talented three-year-olds, was not a pretty one.  The final three-sixteenths were pedestrian despite both colts on the front end being under a heavy drive.  Thunder Snow himself was green, and had something of the look of a drunken partygoer at one point, as he jumped to the outside, then back in, switching leads as he did so.  He managed a narrow victory on sheer class and guts.

With a pedigree like this Irish-bred's, one must always question the ability to race at a high class over the dirt.  By the multiple group one-winning Australian sprinter/miler Helmet and out of the winning Dubai Destination daughter Eastern Joy, he is bred to the hilt for turf racing.  He is a half brother to the ill-fated May Hill Stakes (G2) and UAE Oaks (G3) winner Ihtimal, as well as two other stakes winners, and his dam is a half sister to Prix de Diane (G1) winner West Wind.  Third dam, Morning Devotion, produced the Oaks (G1) and Irish Derby (G1) winning filly Balanchine and Jockey Club Stakes (G2) winner and Derby (G1) third-place finisher Romanov.  While there is plenty of stamina in his more extended tail female family, his more recent close relatives are much more suited to sprint and mile distances (he doesn't get much help from his sire, either), and there is a complete lack of dirt form.

Thunder Snow is truly a splendid-looking colt and seems to have taken all of the excitement at Churchill Downs well in stride.  However, he has the action of a true turf horse and that, coupled with his pedigree, make me believe that he is not going to be racing at his best on the dirt on Saturday.  While he might be right at home in the Guineas, he certainly does not seem suited to the Kentucky Derby.  His inside post position likely will not help him, either, especially since he is a horse who likes to stalk and pounce and seems to do have done his best running from the outside.

The 3 spot belongs to the handsome gray, Fast and Accurate.  The son of Hansen last won the Spiral Stakes at a hefty price, thrusting himself into the Kentucky Derby picture when he had previously been mostly unheard of.

The Mike Maker trainee has certainly been training well at Churchill Downs, firing a :59 3/5 bullet over the training track on April 15, followed up by another five furlong move in 1:00 1/5, also on the training course.  His final move before the Derby came on April 30, when he worked in company in 1:01 1/5.  He was under a firm hold early and looked nice and relaxed.  Everything about the work was as it should have been: smooth and easy.  He was allowed to stride out late in the work, then galloped out well ahead of his workmate with impressive energy.  He has a lovely way of going and seems to have taken well to the main track, despite his worst career performance being his only race on conventional dirt.

This colt has certainly blossomed in recent months, going from winning a maiden claimer in December at Turfway Park to a listed stake on the turf at Gulfstream to winning the Spiral and entering the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby.  He is, however, a speedy type, and will be joined on the front end by several others, while also having to use his speed to get good position from the inside early.  His speed figures are significantly lower than the top end of this field, though if Maker has any say, he will be ready to give his best effort on Derby day. 

The top side of his pedigree calls into question his distance capabilities as well: his sire, Hansen, was at his limit at nine furlongs, and his foals' average winning distance is about 6 1/2 furlongs.  His dam's side could go either way.  His dam is a half sister to talented sprinter Bwana Charlie, but that also means she is a half sister to his brother, Super Derby-winning My Pal Charlie.  Both by Indian Charlie, they were likely at their limit at nine furlongs.  Their other half sibling, Bwana Bull, by Holy Bull, was a quality three-year-old and more consistent two-turn horse, though his best races were at 1 1/16 miles.  Overall, if one puts any stock in dosage anymore, he does have a DI of 1.86, which would be considered a strong number for a horse going ten furlongs.

Generally, this horse is a longshot who is not helped one bit by his post position, with all of the other speed breaking outside of him.  He will have to contend with traffic, and it is not my belief that even a decent trip and his best career effort are enough to win on Saturday.

Untrapped will be breaking from post position 4 for trainer Steve Asmussen, but I feel that there isn't a lot of upside here.  He doesn't appear to be improving with each start as some others have, and is coming off his worst race of the year, finishing sixth in Classic Empire's Arkansas Derby (G1).

With speedier horses on either side of him, this second flight type of runner will probably at least get his favored position and, with luck, a tracking trip that won't leave him boxed in late.  He is capable of putting in a strong late run, as he did in the Risen Star (G2) behind Girvin, but he hasn't displayed much of that in his last two starts, running evenly in Malagacy's Rebel and backing up late in the Arkansas Derby.  One thing he does have in his favor is a win at Churchill Downs, where he broke his maiden in his second start in November.

It could be that Untrapped takes after his sire, Trappe Shot, and prefers the shorter distances.  While Trappe Shot did win the Long Branch and place in the Haskell around two turns at three, he got his graded victory and did his best career running at four in sprint races.  Untrapped's dam is by the great classic horse Giant's Causeway and out of a half sister group one winner Minardi, grade two winner and sire Tale of the Cat, and the dam of juvenile champion Johannesburg.  Other than Giant's Causeway, none of his immediate pedigree screams classic distances.

Untrapped is training well at Churchill Downs, with strong gallops and workmanlike breezes.  He has been a touch too aggressive in some of his gallops, and his connections are certainly hoping he won't be overly keyed up on race day.  He doesn't seem to get over the surface quite as effortlessly as his stablemate, Lookin At Lee, but all in all he has looked solid in the mornings.  Regardless, I would be fairly shocked if he pulled the upset off on Saturday.

The likely morning line favorite, Always Dreaming, will break from post 5.  He has plenty of tactical speed to put him into an advantageous position going into the first turn and a pedigree and way of going that make him seem as though he could run for days. 

The Todd Pletcher trainee took three tries to break his maiden soon after arriving with the Pletcher barn, and he's done nothing but win by open lengths since.  He took a massive jump up in class from an allowance optional claimer in March, which he won by four lengths with a monstrous late pace number, to the Florida Derby (G1), which he won by five, defeating State of Honor and the highly regarded Gunnevera, finishing just off the track record set by Arrogate.  The track was quick that day, but most of the dirt races were also won by closers, so it wasn't speed favoring.  His speed figures took an enormous jump forward from his last race, as well, going from a BrisNet number of 84 to a 102.  That might set him up for a bounce, or it could be that we're looking at a star in the making and we haven't seen the best out of him yet.

Always Dreaming is by Bodemeister, and few can forget that lightly-raced colt's attempt to take the Derby wire-to-wire, setting sizzling early fractions only to fall just short to the late drive of I'll Have Another.  He repeated that performance in the Preakness, also finishing second.  Always Dreaming is out of the stakes winning mare Above Perfection and is a half brother to the brilliant juvenile filly Hot Dixie Chick, winner of the 2009 Spinaway Stakes (G1).  Above Perfection is a daughter of the brilliantly fast In Excess, who could carry his speed on to ten furlongs to great effect.  His second dam is by Somethingfabulous, a Northern Dancer half brother to the great Secretariat, and out of a daughter of the talented handicap horse Terrang.  While his pedigree says eight to nine furlongs may be his limit, the way he strode out at the end of the Florida Derby and his gallop outs after his recent works say something different.

The one flaw in the plan, as it were, with this colt is how aggressive he has been in morning training.  Pletcher had to equip him with draw reins to offer more control and put a more experienced exercise rider on him to calm him down a bit during his gallops.  He is screaming for more to do, but the concern is that he will be so on the muscle come race day that he runs his race before he enters the gate, or suffers a meltdown in the early stages.  I did love the way he got down to business, lowering his head and striding out beautifully, in his last five furlong breeze, and he galloped out well into the backstretch with excellent energy. 

Always Dreaming is a horse who has the sky as his limit in potential.  With a  good trip, and assuming he doesn't cook himself early by being too keen, I can easily see this colt at least getting a piece of the prize, if not winning the whole thing.

The giant Mark Casse trainee, State of Honor, drew post 6.  Standing about 17hh, he is known as "Tiny" and "The Giraffe" around the barn and is the tallest horse in the field. 

State of Honor is one of the most experienced horses in the field with 10 starts.  It took him five tries to break his maiden, which he did on the Woodbine all weather, and he hasn't won in five starts since, though he has been second or third in all of them.  He just missed in the Mucho Macho Man at Gulfstream in January, ran a credible third behind McCraken and Tapwrit in the Sam F. Davis, then second behind Tapwrit again in the Tampa Bay Derby.  He seems to like being up close to the pace, as do many of the horses in here, and if he wants to be on the lead, he will have to work for it.  He improved from two to three, but has yet to take that big jump forward that one would hope for from a three-year-old entering the Derby.  It is possible that his light bulb moment will happen in the big race itself.

This Canadian-bred's pedigree leans toward the miler department, with his sire To Honor and Serve having done his best running at eight to nine furlongs, and his dam a daughter of the very fast Elusive Quality.  It is not impossible for Elusive Quality to get some classic types: his son Raven's Pass won the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) on the ProRide at Santa Anita, though most of his career was as a miler in Europe, and another son, Quality Road, was a big, rangy type that relished nine furlongs, though he never won a major race at ten.  Second dam Avie's Fancy won the Matchmaker Stakes (G2) at 9 1/2 furlongs and is the dam of Santa Catalina Stakes (G2) winner St. Averil.  Her sire, Lord Avie, was a Florida Derby winner and sire of the excellent turf stayer Cloudy's Knight, among others. 

The big horse has a lot of the look of his brilliantly fast sire (and even a bit of Quality Road) about him, and he has been getting over the track extremely well.  His gallops have looked excellent: he is smooth, alert, and responsive.  I like all of the things I am seeing from this horse, but he is still a longshot for a reason.  He's going to need to take a big step forward to win, besides finding the ability to last ten furlongs.

Poor Girvin.  Our no. 7 horse has done little wrong all year until the last couple of weeks, when he came up with a nasty quarter crack in his right front that forced him to miss some training time.

The Joe Sharp trainee is the only horse in the field to have won two straight major preps for the Derby, and despite being lightly raced has been highly regarded.  He is undefeated in three starts on the dirt, his only loss having come over the Fair Grounds turf in his first start of the year.  His win in the Louisiana Derby (G2) was one of the best final preps in the country.  He ran three to four wide throughout while several lengths off the pace, struck the lead and drew clear.  It was nearly a mirror of his Risen Star (G2) win, except in that one, he raced on the rail and came through horses to get to the front and draw off late, running a sizzling late speed number in the process.

Add to the missed training time and questions about his soundness the fact that Girvin's pedigree doesn't really even whisper a mile and a quarter, and you might have a problem supporting this horse.  His sire, Tale of Ekati, was best at a mile, and seems to get similar types in his foals, while his dam has already produced Cocked and Loaded, a horse that did win at 1 1/16 miles, but otherwise did his best running in sprints.  She is by Malibu Moon, sire of Kentucky Derby winner Orb, but her dam is by Yes It's True and out of Yes It's True's dam's half sister, giving her two crosses of the beloved sprinter Monique Rene.

Joe Sharp has done an incredible job of keeping Girvin in shape and he looks as good as he could possibly look physically going into Saturday.  He has trained solely at Keeneland up until yesterday, when he got his first gallop over the main track at Churchill.  He did need some help pulling up (though I'm not sure if that isn't his typical modus operandi), but did not look as comfortable on the Churchill dirt as I would have liked.  His bullet five furlong breeze at Keeneland that had his connections heaving a collective sigh of relief did look very good, but it could be possible that he is not ready to race on that foot for ten furlongs or he may simply not like Churchill.  Or, of course, I could be entirely off base in thinking that his gallop on Thursday was not particularly impressive and he could run back to the form that has him undefeated on the dirt despite all the checkmarks against him.

The real wise-guy horse come Saturday could be Calumet Farms' homebred Hence, breaking from post 8.  He has been generating a lot of buzz among handicappers, despite his long layoff since the Sunland Derby.

It took four tries for Hence to break his maiden and he didn't do it until January of this year.  He followed that up with a seventh place finish, well beaten by One Liner, in the Southwest Stakes (G3) in his first try in graded company.  He shipped to Sunland in March, however, and thrived, running by far the biggest race of his career.  He was far back off a rapid first half before closing five-wide and drawing away like a good horse should in the closing stages, finishing in 1:48 flat, one of the fastest final preps of any of the field.  His final eighth in :12 2/5 was nothing to sneeze at, either. 

Hence is a son of the very fast Street Boss, a son of Street Cry that was mostly a sprinter, but is now getting some very good two-turn horses, including Arkansas Derby (G1) winner and Kentucky Derby third-place finisher Danza and Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner Cathryn Sophia.  He is bred along similar lines as the latter: whereas Cathryn Sophia is out of a daughter of Mineshaft (who is by A.P. Indy and out of a Mr. Prospector mare), he is out of a daughter of A.P. Indy and a Mr. Prospector mare.  His second dam, Ballerina Princess, produced Pico Teneriffe, a multiple graded stakes winner in her own right who was also Canada's 2009 Broodmare of the Year after producing Canadian Horse of the Year Marchfield, also a son of A.P. Indy.  Ballerina Princess is also a full sister to the dam of grade one winning handicap horse Latin American.  There is no reason to think that Hence shouldn't stay the distance based on his pedigree, and judging by the way he ran at Sunland, his performance lends its own credentials.

Since the Sunland Park Derby, it appears to me (from a distance and through the lenses of video and still cameras) that Hence has filled out and matured quite a bit.  He is a fantastic looking red chestnut that has become one of my favorite horses to watch gallop over the last few days.  He has a big, smooth stride with little wasted motion.  His breezes have been nothing less than stellar, in my opinion, and he is easily in the top four or five in the field in terms of how he's been training at Churchill Downs.  I would keep him high on my list of horses to bet.

There was only one race this year (the Santa Anita Derby) that boggled the mind more than the Blue Grass Stakes (G2), won by the no. 9 horse, Irap.  Despite a minor setback and missing some training, the unbeaten Mccraken was the favorite, with the maiden Irap mostly disregarded.  When the race seemingly fell apart at the head of the stretch, it was Irap who picked up the pieces.

Despite being a maiden entering the Blue Grass, Irap already had quite a resume of graded stakes performances.  After failing to break his maiden in two starts on the turf, he was second in Mastery's Los Alamitos Futurity (G1).  After another maiden event over a sloppy track on New Year's Eve, in which he finished fourth, he reeled off two solid second place finishes to Royal Mo and Conquest Mo Money in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) and Mine That Bird Derby.  His win the Blue Grass made Hence's victory in the Sunland Park Derby (G3) look particularly good, as Irap finished fourth in that race.  The opening fractions in the Blue Grass were soft and the final eighth rather pedestrian, however, but that may be excusable since most of the dirt races that day were fairly slow.

Irap is a half brother to champion sprinter Speightstown, out of the stakes-winning Storm Cat daughter Silken Cat.  While Speightstown was a sprinter himself, there is probably some stamina to find in his pedigree, as he is getting versatile horses all over the spectrum, from brilliant sprinters like the late Rock Fall to Belmont Derby Invitational (G1) winner Force the Pass and Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) winner Haynesfield. Irap is also by two-time Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) winner Tiznow, sire of such horses as Dubai World Cup (G1) winner Well Armed, Travers Stakes (G1) winner Colonel John, and Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Da Tara.  Following a career best effort in his second start at 9 furlongs, along with plenty of classic types (or classic-siring types) in his immediate pedigree, there's no reason to think Irap shouldn't get the distance.

From a training standpoint, Doug O'Neill is following the same formula that won him last year's Kentucky Derby with his charge, Nyquist.  Unlike with Nyquist, he is largely flying under the radar this season, but has reunited with Reddam Racing and jockey Mario Gutierrez to bring another one into the Run for the Roses.  He may be one of the fittest horses in the race with those long, mile breezes and two-minute licks, and has looked eager and consistent in his gallops at Churchill.  He is another horse that has been training very, very well since his last prep, and with two Derby wins in the last five years, you know Doug O'Neill knows how to get his charge ready to fire for the race.  Do not discount this gritty longshot, especially from a nice middle post.

The first half of the field is rounded out by the experienced, consistent Gunnevera.  This colt has been on the board in 7 of his 9 starts, winning four of those, and is consistently flying late. 

Gunnevera was fast enough at two to win the Saratoga Special (G2) in his fourth start, defeating highly regarded two-year-olds Recruiting Ready and Tip Tap Tapizar.  After a disappointing run in Classic Empire's Breeders' Futurity (G1) at Keeneland, in which he was very wide, he blew the Delta Downs Jackpot (G3) wide open, winning by nearly six.  This season, he's finished second to Irish War Cry in the Holy Bull (G2), thrashed Practical Joke and Three Rules in the Fountain of Youth (G2) by more than five lengths, and finished a rapidly closing third in Always Dreaming's Florida Derby (G1).  The latter was probably a better race than it looked, as he lost a ton of ground early when Castellano took him back and ducked to the rail from a far outside post, and was closing his last five furlongs in a sizzling :58 4/5.  The winner was so far gone by that point that he had no chance of catching up, but he will have a more advantageous post this time around and likely a better pace scenario up front. 

Few horses in the field have a pedigree as well suited to classic distances as Gunnevera.  A son of Florida Derby (G1) winner Dialed In, himself a son of four-time grade one winner and Horse of the Year Mineshaft and out of a daughter of champion filly Eliza, Gunnevera has a female family littered with classic winners.  His dam, Unbridled Rage, died a few days after his birth, leaving him an orphan, but she probably bestowed a genetic gift of brilliance and stamina.  Sired by Kentucky Derby winner Unbridled, she was out of a daughter of Graustark, with further influences of classic winning The Minstrel and Epsom Derby winner Dante.

Some handicappers have said that this leggy, lightly built colt has not trained well since the Florida Derby.  His last breeze at Churchill Downs was pedestrian, however, it was exactly what his trainer, a legend in his native Venezuela, wanted.  Gunnevera seems to be a very relaxed, tractable sort, and hasn't been one to have crazy antics in the mornings.  I wouldn't mind exercise riding him, either: he doesn't seem to pull too much, settling in to a nice pace that his rider sets.  He gets over this track with his usual efficiency and has been showing his trainer everything he wants to see.  There is no reason, in my mind, to think that he won't be flying down the lane, especially if he gets a good trip and pace scenario.