Leading off the second half of the field is the intriguing, lightly raced Battle of Midway. He will be bucking history in his attempt to win the Kentucky Derby, trying to become only the second horse after Apollo in 1882 to do so without having raced at two.
The Jerry Hollendorfer trainee won his debut in January by open lengths in a six furlong maiden, followed by a sound defeat by Iliad in the San Vicente Stakes (G2). He tried two turns next out in an optional claimer, winning by a neck over the nice colt Reach the World and Kentucky Oaks runner Vexatious. This is a fast horse, no doubt, as evidenced by his early pace numbers in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). Over a track that wasn't particularly fast that day, he clicked off a :22 3/5 and :46 2/5 pace before slowing dramatically. Luckily for him, everyone seemed tired and crawling home. He fought on gamely for a second place finish behind the winner, Gormley, defeating Derby also-eligible Royal Mo. Visually, that race was the single most baffling of all of the Kentucky Derby preps, with a freakishly slow final time of 1:51.16 and its cavalry charge of a finish with five horses that seemed to want nothing to do with serious running in the final eighth of a mile. The track seemed speed biased that day, as well, which may have helped him significantly.
In terms of pedigree, Battle of Midway could swing one way or another: he could be a miler, or, less likely, a true router. His sire, Smart Strike, surely gets his fair share of classic types, including his Hall of Fame son Curlin. His dam's side, however, is a bit more suspect. He is out of the very nice Rigoletta, a graded stakes winner who was injured in her second start at three and whose potential was untapped. Her sire, Concerto, was a very nice two-turn horse, setting a stakes record in the Frederico Tesio Stakes at 9 furlongs and winning stakes events up to 10. He did sire the brilliant Wood Memorial (G1) winner Bellamy Road, however his influence has tended more toward milers who, given the right circumstances, could carry their speed. Rigoletta is out of a daughter of Montbrook named Almost Aprom Queen, a very fast horse who also sired champion sprinter Big Drama. Almost Aprom Queen is a half sister to the multiple stakes winning sprinters Sea of Green and Lady Gin.
This colt has been working quickly out at Santa Anita since his last start, getting nice, long breezes and gallop outs in. His gallops at Churchill haven't been the best I've seen, but they certainly haven't been the worst, either. He has good energy and appears to be getting over the track well with his quick, snappy stride. I just don't feel that he is suited for the Kentucky Derby, though he will likely be a big part of the pace scenario early on.
Calumet Farms has two horses who seem to have really blossomed at Churchill Downs: Hence and Sonneteer. Though a maiden in ten starts to date, Sonneteer has been another of the best training horses underneath the Twin Spires in the days leading up to Derby Day.
Trained by Keith Desormeaux of Exaggerator and Texas Red fame, Sonneteer has been a deep closer in every one of his starts, sometimes running very fast late pace numbers that suggest he might appreciate longer distances. His final race as a two-year-old in a one mile maiden, in which he finished a length and a quarter behind Royal Mo, was probably his best start as a juvenile, while this season he has finished a fast-closing second in the Rebel Stakes (G2) and a wide, but close, fourth in the Arkansas Derby (G1). His late pace number in the latter was particularly good (109), but he has not run any standout final speed figures, either. His numbers have been steadily improving this season and he could benefit should there be a pace meltdown.
Sonneteer is a son of Midnight Lute, who, like Speightstown, was a brilliant champion sprinter on the track that can sire horses who can go two turns, including Queen's Plate winner Midnight Aria and Los Alamitos Derby (G3) winner Gimme Da Lute. Sonneteer is out of a daughter of the fast sprinter type Half Ours (who was also graded placed going two turns) and the grade one winning sprinter/miler Classy Mirage. There is a tremendous amount of class in this female family, however it is mostly of the speedy type. Fourth dam, Gray Mirage, is a half sister to the Hall of Fame filly Dark Mirage. This is simply not a pedigree that I would expect to go 10 furlongs, unless he throws back to his grandsire Real Quiet and some fifth-generation influences.
In training, Sonneteer has struck me as a bright, happy, and energetic colt. He has inherited a lot of the look of his sire, Midnight Lute, and puts me in mind somewhat of Mylute, a closing fifth in the Kentucky Derby and third in the Preakness in 2013. From what I can tell, he looks like a horse that has the stride and action to excel in the slop, as well, which is not something I can say for many of the other contenders besides Gunnevera and perhaps one or two others. His final breeze on May 1 (4 furlongs in :47 flat) looked spectacular. If you're going to bring a maiden to the first Saturday in May, you might as well bring one who looks like a potential superstar in the making.
Breaking from lucky no. 13 will be J Boys Echo. Dale Romans brings this highly regarded colt into the race with two wins from six starts and some buzz on the backstretch at Churchill.
J Boys Echo is one of the handful of starters to have raced at Churchill, finishing second in his debut outing in October. He blew away a maiden field at Keeneland next out, then followed that up with a couple of unlucky trips in the Delta Downs Jackpot (G3) and Withers Stakes (G3). He avenged his Withers defeat handily in the Gotham Stakes (G3), also over the Aqueduct inner track, defeating Withers winner El Areeb by 11 lengths. He once again was handed a rough trip in the loaded Blue Grass Stakes (G1), getting knocked around at the start and finishing well behind the winner, Irap. It's difficult to get a real read on this horse from his races. He's had some rough trips (which he could very well see again in the Derby) that could give him excuses for some of his losses, and he's never run a particularly bad race, but his one truly good run was over the quirky inner track at Aqueduct and may or may not be an aberration. He certainly has a nice, sit-back-and-pounce running style, with enough early speed to not leave him too much to do in the lane that will serve him well on Saturday.
In his pedigree, J Boys Echo has a balance of speed and stamina. He is by Mineshaft, a son of A.P. Indy who won four grade one races, including the 10 furlong Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) and Suburban Handicap (G1), and was named Horse of the Year in 2003. His dam is the graded stakes winner Letgomyecho, who did her best running in sprints, by Kentucky Derby runner-up Menifee. There is plenty of black type in his tail female family, though much of it is of the sprint or mile variety. His dam does double up on the Argentinian Triple Crown winner Tatan, a direct ancestor of Menifee and second dam, Echo Echo Echo and a source of stamina.
J Boys Echo certainly puts one in mind of his sire, Mineshaft, and as any of Dale Romans's horses is looking in fine flesh and fit entering Saturday's race. I don't enjoy watching this horse gallop, but when he levels out in his breezes and races, he has a long, low, powerful action that really gets the job done. He was asked to gallop out around the turn and into the backstretch, then allowed to essentially pull himself up in his final breeze, and it took quite some time for him to slow down. Honestly, the more I watch this horse, the more I like him and find excuses for his poor performances. He still has a lot to prove, however, and I can't get past how awful his name sounds rolling off the tongue.
Last season, I picked a horse to win the Claiborne Breeders' Futurity (G1) and then the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), and he did both. Classic Empire was well deserving of his championship last season and has already earned over $2 million before even entering the Kentucky Derby.
There are only a couple of blemishes on the Mark Casse trainee's record, and that is his third place finish in the Holy Bull Stakes (G2), won by Irish War Cry, which he exited with a foot abscess. Last season, he was also my pick in the Hopeful Stakes (G1), however he displayed his flightiness at the start and dumped his rider within the first couple of strides. Otherwise, he has done nothing but win. He has two victories at Churchill Downs in his first two outs, one over a sloppy track and the other in the Bashford Manor Stakes (G3), wins in the Breeders' Futurity and Breeders' Cup, and is entering Saturday off a solid win in the Arkansas Derby. Following his setback in February, missing training time, and refusing to work as scheduled, he still ran his second best career race in Arkansas in his first start at 9 furlongs. He was in tight in the early stages and buried in traffic for much of the race. Once he got rolling while very wide on the turn, it took only a few taps on the shoulder for him to mow down the gritty leader, Conquest Mo Money. From the way Leparoux rode him, he knew he had the best horse and could have possibly won by more if he had wanted. He left something in the tank for the real dance, however.
No one can sniff at the champ's pedigree. He is by Pioneerof the Nile, sire of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah and a Kentucky Derby runner-up in his own right, as well as a son of Kentucky Derby runner-up and Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Empire Maker. Classic Empire's dam is a maiden daughter of Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) winner Cat Thief, himself third in the Kentucky Derby. His dam's side is filled with black type, as well as Miswaki and Princequillo influences, and his fifth dam is the great blue hen mare Alanesian. Ten furlongs will be no problem for this horse, and even an off track should not bother him.
This horse is definitely hot blooded, as he has shown this season in his training. Prior to the Arkansas Derby, he flat refused to work when he was scheduled to breeze. He has been nicknamed "Racing's Bad Boy" due to his training antics. Hopefully all of that energy doesn't express itself in a detrimental fashion on Derby Day, because the champ is a live contender. He has been galloping beautifully and we already know he likes Churchill Downs. If he doesn't have a meltdown in the paddock or post parade, he is one to watch out for, especially with his tactical speed from an outside position.
My battle cry all year has been, "Release the McCraken!" And I'm not about to pull my support from this horse following his first career defeat. This horse is fast, versatile, and has a very savvy trainer in Ian Wilkes who knows how to get a horse peaking at just the right time and was assistant to Carl Nafzger, trainer of two Kentucky Derby winners (Street Sense in 2007 and Unbridled in 1990).
McCraken is already proven at Churchill Downs, having won all three of his first starts over the surface, including the Street Sense and the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2). This season, he opened the year with a track record performance in the Sam F. Davis, defeating Tapwrit and State of Honor in handy fashion, then missed training time and a scheduled start in the Tampa Bay Derby (won by Tapwrit, in another new track record) due to what was called a minor ankle injury. He probably needed the race in Irap's Blue Grass, in which he came up a bit empty in the lane, but still managed to finish third, ahead of several other Kentucky Derby starters.
McCraken's pedigree veritably shouts classic horse. His sire, Ghostzapper, was brilliant at any distance they tried him at, winning major graded stakes from 6 1/2 to 10 furlongs, including a stakes record performance in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1). To date, he has sired foals who can stay up to a mile and a half. McCraken's dam, Ivory Empress, was stakes placed in sprints, but she is sired by Super Derby (G1) winner and Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) runner-up Seeking the Gold, one of the great sires of his time who got such horses as Dubai World Cup (G1) winner Dubai Millennium, international multiple group one winner Seeking the Pearl, and the beloved champion Heavenly Prize. Ivory Empress is a half sister to Mea Domina, winner of the 2005 Gamely Breeders' Cup Handicap (G1). Second dam, Madame Pandit, is a daughter of Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) winner Wild Again, and third dam, Tuesday Evening was sired by the stamina influence Nodouble.
Since the Blue Grass, McCraken has trained like a house on fire. He has put together two stellar five furlong moves in a row at Churchill in the two weeks leading up to the race, and he looked like quite a handful to pull up in his last work. He is all business in the mornings, and you have to love his professionalism. He has a smooth stride and economy of action that strongly remind me of his sire, Ghostzapper, who could run on anything at any distance, and he even looks almost the same physically. Everyone keep an eye on this colt, even from way out in post 15, because this may not be only my top pick for the Derby - there will be plenty of others backing him, as well.
McCraken will be breaking beside a familiar foe in Tapwrit, who holds the no. 16 post. The handsome gray Pletcher trainee broke McCraken's track record in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) in his best career race and second start on the year, but was a disappointing fifth in the Blue Grass behind Irap, Practical Joke, McCraken and J Boys Echo. He has shown promise and ability, however his form dropped off badly at Keeneland. That could have been a symptom of the odd surface that day or his poor break, however he might be a little suspect following that performance. He is also a stakes winner in the slop and can finish very strongly, so if he runs back to the form he was showing prior to the Blue Grass, he could be a threat.
Tapwrit is a son of champion sire Tapit, out of the Spinaway Stakes (G1) winner Appealing Zophie, herself a son of the fast Successful Appeal, and not just a sprinter. She was also a graded winner around two turns. His second dam, Zophie, is a daughter of Hawkster, a world record setter for 12 furlongs on the turf and broodmare sire of Preakness and Belmont winner Afleet Alex, among others. Tapwrit's third dam is a daughter of Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew, out of a granddaughter of classic influence Prince John. There is no reason to think that 10 furlongs is out of this horse's reach based on his pedigree, and with his running style and strong finishes, he should be in very good shape in that regard.
In the mornings, Tapwrit has been looking solid. His last breeze in company with stablemate Patch (five panels in 1:00 1/5) was very good, even though he may have looked a touch unfocused at times. When it came down to the stretch and gallop out, however, he moved in on Patch and stuck right with him with ease. He covers a lot of ground in his gallops and is another with a long, low way of going that I like (though that may not be ideal for the sloppy mess that the Derby is likely to be). If all signals are good with this horse, and he manages to return to form, he may be a threat to pick up a piece of it.
We're starting to get out into no man's land with post no. 17 and Irish War Cry, but if anyone can win from this far out, it might be the statuesque chestnut Graham Motion trainee.
Irish War Cry burst onto the Triple Crown scene in February with a powerful wire-to-wire victory over Gunnevera and Classic Empire in the Holy Bull Stakes (G2). That race would seemingly set him up for another top notch performance in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2), however, he would press the pace early and tire badly, finishing a soundly beaten seventh, 21 lengths behind Gunnevera. Graham Motion himself called the race a "real headscratcher," with the previously unbeaten colt having no excuse besides perhaps running back too quickly. In his next start, the Wood Memorial (G1), he would have an extra week of rest and win easily by 3 1/2 lengths over Batallion Runner and Cloud Computing, running back to his Holy Bull form.
Based on pedigree, Irish War Cry shouldn't have a bit of trouble staying the mile and a quarter. He is a son of the Hall of Fame Curlin, winner of the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), Dubai World Cup (G1), etc. and sire of Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Palace Malice, Preakness Stakes (G1) winner Exaggerator, Travers Stakes (G1) winner Keen Ice, and champion filly Stellar Wind, among others. He is out of Irish Sovereign, a daughter of the good Danzig sire Polish Numbers and Beau Genius dam Irish Genius. His third dam, Irish Trip, was a British-bred daughter of Arc winner Saint Crespin and granddaughter of Irish Derby winner Tambourine.
The New Jersey champion has been training well at Churchill Downs, though he doesn't look quite as comfortable in his gallops as some others. He's been doing long breezes over at Fair Hill and is looking a lot like another Graham Motion Derby horse, Animal Kingdom, who memorably won the race in 2011. I am a fan of this horse, though I don't like what I see from him at Churchill as much as some others. I think he could still be a threat, and Motion will have him primed for a big effort, assuming he doesn't throw in a clunker like he did two starts back.
Another horse who has been looking extremely good at Churchill, but is hung out wide, is the no. 18, Gormley. He has largely been forgotten in the pre-race chatter, despite being the winner of the Santa Anita Derby (G1) last time out.
At two, Gormley won his first two, including an impressive victory in the Frontrunner (G1) before being soundly beaten by Classic Empire in the Breeders' Cup. This year, he won a hard fought victory in the Sham Stakes (G3) over American Anthem, then was off for two months before being thrashed by Mastery in the San Felipe (G2). The Santa Anita Derby, as mentioned previously, was boggling in terms of its slow final time and crawling finish. Gormley looked like he closed well, but the late pace numbers really tell the story: no one was closing well at all. The one mile Sham may have been as far as he wanted to go, based on his race performances and early vs late pace numbers.
Gormley is a son of Malibu Moon, himself by A.P. Indy, who already has a Kentucky Derby winner in 2013 victor Orb. His dam is the stakes-winning turf filly Race to Urga, a daughter of multiple group stakes winner and turf influence Bernstein. The turf trend continues down his female line, with plenty of stamina thrown in, with Kingmambo, Strawberry Road, and Vaguely Noble. Second dam, Miss Mambo, was a stakes winner on the turf and a granddaughter of the great Arlington Million winning filly Estrapade. There is plenty of class and black type in Gormley's extended female family, and plenty of stamina as well, but thus far he hasn't run to that stamina.
The John Shirreffs trainee looks as good as anyone on the track in the mornings right now. He cruises along with his neck bowed, galloping well off the rail and demanding to do more. He has a beautiful stride, though it may be more suited for turf as his dam's side of the family would suggest, and doesn't appear uncomfortable with the Churchill surface. Shirreffs has been giving him long works out at Santa Anita prior to shipping east, and he should be plenty fit. However, I do believe he is going to have trouble from the far outside post with so many horses inside of him who are going to want a similar early position.
In post no. 19 is Practical Joke, Chad Brown's only starter this year in Churchill's main event. This seemingly talented colt has been largely overlooked and will likely go off at a big price, especially from his far outside post position.
Practical Joke was undefeated in his first three starts at two, breaking his maiden by five at Saratoga before reeling off victories in the Hopeful and Champagne Stakes (both G1) before finishing almost eight lengths behind Classic Empire in the Juvenile. He is one of several horses in the field making his third start off a layoff and eligible to improve. He ran a better race last out in the Blue Grass Stakes (G2) behind Irap than he did finishing second to Gunnevera in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and could move forward even more from that effort. He has a stalk-and-pounce running style that is usually very beneficial in the Kentucky Derby, however that strategy will be difficult to use to its full effectiveness from nearly the far outside.
Thus far, Practical Joke has not won beyond a mile, and his genetics may be to blame. He is a son of the fast CashCall Futurity (G1) winner Into Mischief, whose foals tend to excel up to a mile and can sometimes stretch their speed to nine panels, but out of a daughter of classic sire Distorted Humor. His second dam, Gilded Halo (Gilded Time), is bred along the same lines as multiple graded stakes winning handicap horse Moment of Hope, a son of Timeless Moment (Gilded Time's sire) and out of Careless Moment (Gilded Halo's second dam). The majority of this pedigree is full of milers who could stretch their speed up to nine furlongs on a good day, except for his third dam's sire, Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Sunny's Halo.
Chad Brown does have this horse looking amazing in the mornings. He is strong and alert in his gallops, ears pricked and fairly gliding over the ground, and he looks as though he always wants to do a little more. He has breezed in company on April 28 in blinkers and will likely race with those for the first time in the Derby. (On a side note, the last horse I recall to run with first-time blinkers in the Derby was a colt named Palace Malice, who set a radioactive early pace and faded badly.) That work with blinkers looked as solid as they come, he was nice and focused in the stretch and galloped out powerfully. If it weren't for the terrible post position, I would have this horse at the top of my list of under-the-radar types.
Wrapping up the field will be the lightly raced, one-eyed wonder, Patch. The handsome bay colt had his left eye removed as a two-year-old, but took it all in stride.
Besides Battle of Midway, he is the only other horse in the field to have not raced at two, and winning the Derby with that kind of weight on his shoulders would be quite a feat. In fact, he's only run three times in his career and has only one graded stakes attempt on his resume. He broke his maiden in his first try going two turns in his second start in February, winning at a mile at Gulfstream with a solid BrisNet speed figure. He followed that up with a very good second to Girvin in the Louisiana Derby (G2). He had a bit of a rough start, but was running on very well late to be well clear of Local Hero and Lookin At Lee. The Kentucky Derby, it should be noted, will be the first time he's had the same jockey as he had in his previous start, as Tyler Gaffalione retains the mount.
This lovable underdog has been training well at Churchill Downs, with a solid breeze in company with Tapwrit, and looks to be in fine flesh. He did not appear to appreciate the track drying out from some rain on May 1, however, and looked a bit awkward that day. I wouldn't quite give him an A+ grade for his morning work, but he has looked good enough to think that he might handle the track reasonably well if it's not too slick.
Patch has a world of potential based on his limited race record and his pedigree. He is by Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Union Rags, one of last season's top freshman sires, second only to Dialed In. He is out of Windyindy, a royally bred daughter of the great A.P. Indy (has anyone else noticed how much A.P. Indy blood is in this Derby field?) out of Unbridled Wind, a stakes-winning full sister to five-time grade one winner and champion Banshee Breeze. When it comes to this horse, he gives me such a warm, fuzzy feeling inside that it's difficult for me to objectively judge how well he may run in the Derby. He's hung on the far outside with every other starter to his blind side, he has only had three starts and never raced at two, and is making on his second graded stakes attempt with a brilliant but inexperienced jockey who has never ridden in the Derby. All of those signs say he's a toss, but if for nothing but pure sentiment's sake, I still like him.
What conclusions did I draw from my extensive (but unfortunately oft-interrupted) study of this year's Kentucky Derby starters? As it has been most of the year, McCraken tops my list (well, Mastery did until he was injured in March). Of the others, Classic Empire has never disappointed my faith in him without a good excuse, nor has Gunnevera. I would say that, especially based on post position draws, those three lead my picks with Hence, Always Dreaming and Irish War Cry competing for the last two spots in my top five. I would probably give the edge to Hence and Always Dreaming based on how well they have been training and their more advantageous post positions, though Irish War Cry is an extremely nice horse and perfectly capable of running a huge race.
As usual, there will no doubt be some other, mostly forgotten, horse who comes in and messes up my top five (I have picked the top five to eight horses for the last several years, save one horse that always ruins the whole mess). I can honestly say that that "spoiler" will more than likely come from the group of Irap, Tapwrit, Sonneteer (What?! Yes, I said it), J Boys Echo, and Lookin At Lee. To be perfectly honest, this field is as wide open as it can possibly be, with Mother Nature's final wrench of all day rain thrown in for good measure. Good luck figuring this one out, folks.
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