The 2016 Kentucky Oaks Field (Part 3 of 3)

The post time favorite for this year's Kentucky Oaks will likely come from the far outside.  The three most accomplished fillies in the field will break from posts 11, 12, and 13, including the morning line favorite, Rachel's Valentina.

The only daughter of Rachel Alexandra, Rachel's Valentina will exit the paddock wearing the number 11 under John Velazquez.  The Todd Pletcher trainee garnered attention very early as the second and likely last foal from her great dam and did not disappoint, breaking her maiden at first asking at Saratoga and winning a grade one in only her second start.

Rachel's Valentina's pedigree is simply full of superlatives.  Her brilliant, classic-winning sire has already been mentioned previously as the sire of Lewis Bay, and her dam is one of the best race fillies we have seen in decades.  Interestingly enough, both of this filly's parents won the Preakness Stakes and were champion three-year-olds in their respective years.  Rachel Alexandra, by the excellent filly sire Medaglia d'Oro (seriously, he gets freaky good fillies; he also has Songbird, who I feel bears an uncanny resemblance to "Rachel"), is out of the stakes winning Roar mare Lotta Kim.  Up until this point, the female family appears to be consistently producing useful stakes types, but nothing truly on the grade one level like Rachel Alexandra and her daughter. 

Rachel's Valentina has done nothing wrong in her four race career, winning the grade one Spinaway in impressive fashion in only her second career start.  Her very first two-turn race was in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies at Keeneland, in which she finished second to the undefeated champion Songbird.  It would be five months before we would get see her race again.  Barbara Banke, owner of Stonestreet Stables, said she "was a little light going into the Breeders' Cup" and that they "wanted to make sure she was 150% before we put her back in training."  She was definitely up against it in her first start back.  The field was short but classy in this year's Ashland Stakes, also drawing the then undefeated Cathryn Sophia, highly regarded Carina Mia and stakes performers Weep No More and Banree.  She was a handful for Florent Geroux through much of the early stages of the race before settling down the backstretch in second.  Turning for home, it looked like the three-horse race everyone expected, with Cathryn Sophia, "Rachel Jr.", and Carina Mia head and head turning for home.  She battled very gamely between horses and looked a winner in the last 50 yards until Weep No More appeared out of the clouds.  Considering that it was her first start in five months, it was a very, very good race that she sorely needed.  We can certainly expect her to be fitter and readier for the Oaks than she was at Keeneland.

This filly has definitely been training more sharply since the Ashland.  Her half mile breeze on April 28th in company was excellent.  She drew clear of her workmate, who was getting scrubbed on pretty strongly, with little to no urging from her rider and galloped out smoothly and professionally well down the backstretch.  She seems to get over the Churchill track very well and has a gorgeous way of going, with a lot of forward reach and propulsion and extension in the rear. 

Rachel's Valentina is a very deserving morning line favorite.  She may not have run the fastest numbers of the fillies in the race, but she is probably the most consistently at the top since her career began.  The Oaks wasn't even the original plan with her, according to Banke, but she earned her way there.  She gets John Velazquez back, and Todd Pletcher's horses put up monstrous numbers second off the layoff.  There is no doubt she will be primed for a big effort on Friday, and it would not surprise me if she won the race that earned her mother a spot in the Preakness Stakes. 

Rachel's Valentina after the Ashland Stakes (photo by Erin Sanderson)

 

Also exiting the Ashland is Cathryn Sophia, trained by John Servis.  Prior to her run at Keeneland, she was undefeated in four starts, all one turn events.  She does have the most consistently high speed numbers of any filly in the field, even in her third place finish last out in her first start around two turns.

 

Cathryn Sophia is by the useful sire Street Boss, a multiple grade one winning son of Street Cry who, unlike many of his sire's get, excelled in sprints.  He seems to pass on that speedy trait to many of his foals, though his son Danza did win the 2014 Arkansas Derby and finish third in the Kentucky Derby.  Her dam's side doesn't lend itself well to the type of nine furlong stamina that Cathryn Sophia will need, either, despite her unraced dam, Sheave, being by Mineshaft.  It's hard to tell how Sheave's sire will affect Cathryn Sophia, since she is the mare's first foal.  Second dam, Belterra, by Unbridled, won the 8 1/2 furlong Golden Rod Stakes, but her only stakes-winning foal (also by a son of Street Cry, the Derby winner Street Sense) got her blacktype in a seven furlong race.  Third dam Cruising Haven got the multiple graded stakes winning sprinter Royal Haven by a son of the great stamina influence Graustark, though she is the second dam of the neat Russian classic winner Persey Bars.

 

Before the Ashland, Cathryn Sophia was perfect.  In her first two starts, she broke her maiden by 12 lengths then won the Gin Talking at Laurel by 16, earning her highest Brisnet figure of 102.  She stepped it up into graded company for the Forward Gal Stakes at Gulfstream in January, taking back off the pace for the first time in her career before exploding clear through the stretch to win by 5 1/2.  The scene in the Davona Dale was much the same, though she was a bit closer to a more moderate pace, where she stunned Lewis Bay by seven lengths.  In her most recent start, she was widest throughout while pressing the pace before making her run four-wide turning for home.  She got the lead briefly before fading just a touch and relinquishing second to Rachel's Valentina as Weep No More swept by both of them.

 

Cathryn Sophia has always trained particularly well in the mornings, with bullets showing up next to her workouts seven times since November.  Her last work was particularly impressive.  She breezed five furlongs at Keeneland and did not in any way look as if she were clipping off a :59 3/5 pace.  She actually looks as if she's grown a bit since the Ashland, with a bit more muscle in her hind end than when I saw her in April.  She is a compact little filly with a quick, snappy stride that actually puts me in mind a bit of Xtra Heat.  As much of a fan as I am of Cathryn Sophia, I don't see her winning the Oaks.  Her pedigree, physicality, and race performance all point to her being a brilliant sprinter who can carry her speed up to a mile at the highest level.  She could still pick up a piece of it on grit alone, but I feel her best running going forward will be around only one turn and breaking from the outside as a speed horse will do her few favors.

 

Cathryn Sophia prior to the Ashland Stakes (photo by Erin Sanderson)

 

Breaking from post 13 is another filly who will definitely be one of the top choices for the big dance.  Land Over Sea, from the same connections as Derby favorite Nyquist, was racing in Southern California for much of her career and subsequently was defeated five times by champion Songbird.  As a two-year-old, she made five starts, winning only one - a maiden at a mile on the turf - but finishing second in the Chandelier and third in the Del Mar Debutante. 

 

Land Over Sea is by record-setting Wood Memorial winner Bellamy Road, who has seen only moderate success as a sire.  His highest earning foal to date is upset Wood winner Toby's Corner, who defeated Uncle Mo in a shocker in 2011.  Her Pulpit dam, Belle Watling, has also produced the grade two placed War Story and $200,000 earner Draw Two.  Second dam Polly Adler, by Housebuster, got stakes winner and producer Yoursmineours and is a half sister to 1987 Champion Two-Year-Old Filly Epitome (who produced $2 million E Dubai by Pulpit).  It's not the prettiest pedigree at first glance, but the quality is certainly there.

 

As a three-year-old, Land Over Sea has blossomed.  Following her seventh place finish in her final start at two in the Breeders' Cup, she ran second twice to Songbird in the Las Virgenes and Santa Ysabel in two good efforts, leaving fellow Oaks contender Mokat well behind her in the latter.  In her most recent race, the Fair Grounds Oaks, she settled several lengths off the pace while three wide through the first turn.  She made a big move turning for home and was into second by the time they straightened for the drive.  She looked to hang a little early in the stretch but came on late down that long run for home to win going away by 4 1/2 lengths.

 

Land Over Sea has been looking sharp since her win at Fair Grounds and was a handful in her last breeze at Keeneland on the 29th.  Her rider wasn't asking her for much speed and kept her well off the rail, but her time of 1:01.80 was solid and comparable to a lot of the O'Neill works that I'm familiar with.  She has definitely matured physically in the last couple of months and looks to be in good flesh heading into the Oaks.  She galloped very aggressively on Wednesday and seemed to get over the track well.  This filly has a big stride that carries her over the ground with seemingly little effort, and I highly doubt we've seen the best of what she can offer in the afternoons.

 

The outside post for this filly is a bit daunting, but if she can settle and drop back going into the first turn, she shouldn't be too wide.  She will have to navigate some traffic, which is something she hasn't done too much of in her previous races, but she is one of the toughest, most seasoned fillies in the field, and her experience should serve her well.  She is certainly one of my favorites for the Oaks and will be a short price at post time.

 

Land Over Sea on track at Keeneland on April 9th (photo by Erin Sanderson)

 

The last filly through the post parade will be Winchell Thoroughbreds' Taxable.  The lightly raced filly is the third shot in the Oaks for trainer Steve Asmussen but will definitely be a longshot. 

 

Taxable has a very commercially appealing pedigree.  She is by previously mentioned leading sire Tapit and out of a royally bred half sister to Kentucky Oaks winner Summerly.  Her dam, Jackpot Joanie, could not duplicate her sister's success on the track, but the Giant's Causeway filly did break her maiden at Churchill Downs.  Besides Summerly, second dam Here I Go, by Mr. Prospector, did not produce much.  Her third dam is Shufflin in Seattle, by Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew and out of Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies runner-up Darby Shuffle, also a half sister to multiple stakes winner Beat All, who finished third in the 1999 Epsom Derby.

 

This leggy chestnut filly broke her maiden in impressive fashion back in June of last year at Churchill Downs, airing by seven lengths in a six furlong sprint.  She must have had some issues as a two-year-old since she didn't race again until Mach of this year, winning an optional claimer with ease at Oaklawn.  Her late pace rating from Brisnet in that race was actually the highest of any horse in the field at 105.  (Only one other in the race has run a triple digit late pace figure around two turns, and that is Weep No More.)  Bumped up into graded stakes for her third and most recent start, Taxable settled further off the pace than ever in her career before edging into contention under her own power on the turn.  She made a big run at the winner, her stablemate Terra Promessa, but was very green through the stretch, drifting in and out and jumping to her off lead late.  Her speed figures have been nothing to write home about (her highest is an 89 from Brisnet), but she is definitely improving and it can't hurt to have Mike Smith in the irons on the big day.

 

Without any videos of this filly training, I can't say for certain just how she looks coming into the race.  Her workout pattern in the last month has been similar to the rest of her short career, with her most recent breeze coming on May 2nd.  She went a half mile in :50 2/5 over a track labeled good in her final preparations. 

 

She's definitely going to be a big price at post time, but she doesn't have the worst shot of any filly I've ever seen in the Oaks.  Her connections must be hoping for her to be able to relax under Mike Smith and take back to get over to the inside before the first turn.  I doubt she's speedy enough to outrun fillies like Cathryn Sophia, Rachel's Valentina, and Paola Queen to get the rail on the front end.  The Kentucky Oaks is certainly a tall order for an improving though inexperienced filly, and my thoughts are that she isn't quite ready for this big of a stage.

 

On the also-eligible list is one of my favorite fillies from last year: Dothraki Queen.  The little bay filly comes from the barn of Kenny McPeek.  Following her first two starts, in which she broke her maiden by seven on the turf at Ellis Park and then gamely won the Pocahontas Stakes at Churchill Downs, she hasn't had the best of luck, but it is my belief that she is a classy filly deserving of a shot in the Oaks should someone scratch.

 



Her pedigree, in my opinion, is as pretty as a picture, but it seems as though it would point more toward turf.  (She defies it; her best speed figures have all come on the dirt.)  She is by Pure Prize, a graded stakes winning son of Storm Cat whose foals seem to favor turf a bit, though he has plenty of stakes winners on the dirt.  His best daughter was another of my favorites, the multiple grade one winner Pure Clan who captured the American Oaks and Flower Bowl Invitationals and finished second in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf and third in the Kentucky Oaks.  Dothraki Queen is out of the winning Saint Ballado (love!) mare Sharaiji Blossom, a half sister to one of Hong Kong's great milers, Electronic Unicorn, as well as Kentucky Oaks winner Blushing K.D. and Canadian champion Ambitious Cat.  Second dam Lilac Garden is a daughter of Roberto and third dam Balletomane is by Nijinsky and a half sister to record setting grade one winner Group Plan.

 

The last few races for Dothraki Queen have been a bit rough.  She was almost a pinball at the start of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies but closed well to finish third at 25-1, only a length and a quarter behind Rachel's Valentina.  She was extremely wide throughout the sloppy Golden Rod, won by Carina Mia.  Her only start this year came on the turf in the Appalachian Stakes, where she ran poorly behind Catch a Glimpse after again being bothered at the start and traveling wide. 

 

This is a very nice filly and I have faith in her moving forward.  If by some miracle she manages to draw into the race, I think she gets a good closing trip from the rear of the field with Gary Stevens in the irons. 

 

Dothraki Queen after her second place finish in the Alcibiades (photo by Erin Sanderson)

 

Ultimately, it seems that this year's Kentucky Oaks will come down to how fast they go early and how far some of these fillies actually want to run.  At least a reasonable pace could set this one up for Weep No More, who has shown us no hesitation making her way through traffic in the past and should easily get a rail trip as she drops back in the early going, or Land Over Sea, who can also rate very well and come home strong.  Rachel's Valentina will almost certainly be in the mix late with Cathryn Sophia doing her best to hang around until the wire.  I'm a little biased toward Go Maggie Go and Weep No More, so it makes it very difficult for me to see the downsides to both (tremendous inexperience and deep closing style, respectively).  My top picks are probably Rachel's Valentina and Land Over Sea, though with a potential fast pace, I very much like Weep No More to at least get a piece of it.  I would have to take Mokat and Go Maggie Go as my longshot picks.

 

No matter how much I analyze the past performances on paper and go back and watch the races, look at pedigrees, and see training videos, this field just leaves my head spinning.  It's a pretty evenly matched bunch, with a few up and comers that have loads of question marks and a top filly who I don't think can get two turns with the absolute best of them.  I know who I will be rooting for, but who will you be betting on?

The 2016 Kentucky Oaks Field (Part 2 of 3)

Welcome back for the second of three parts of a series profiling the 2016 Kentucky Oaks contenders.  Last time, we took a look at the fillies filling post positions one through five, ending with Dream Dance.  The second third of the field has some intriguing up and comers that will be big prices at post time.

Breaking from post six is Mokat, from the West Coast stable of Richard Baltas.  Her main claim to fame is running second behind the incomparable Songbird in the Santa Anita Oaks and third behind that rival and Land Over Sea in the Santa Ysabel earlier in the year. 

Mokat's pedigree leans a bit toward sprint and mile speed, yet her best race to date has come around two turns.  By the very hot sire Uncle Mo, who will be represented by several starters on Friday and Saturday, including Kentucky Derby favorite and undefeated champion Nyquist, she has the potential to be every bit as versatile as some of his other foals.  She is out of the unraced Flashy Frolic, a daughter of stakes winning Exclusive Native son Premiership.  Premiership earned over $200,000 in the 1980s, racing primarily in sprint races.  Flashy Frolic is a half sister to multiple graded stakes winner Smok'n Frolic, winner of stakes events from 5 to 9 furlongs while earning over $1.5 million.  The latter produced Hunter's Bay (by Ghostzapper), winner of multiple graded events in Canada up to 10 furlongs.  Third dam Cherokee Frolic won numerous stakes events, including the Test Stakes at Saratoga in 1981, and is the second dam of millionaire handicap horse Super Frolic.  This female family is definitely live and consistently churning out classy blacktype earners, making a filly like Mokat, who appears to be coming into her own, even more interesting. 

Mokat's road to the Oaks has been a little different from some of the others.  She broke her maiden at a mile on the turf by 5 1/2 lengths at Del Mar before running a solid second in the Jimmy Durante Stakes in November.  She faded to fourth after leading through strong fractions in an optional claimer in her three-year-old debut at a flat mile on the main track at Santa Anita, then again led and faded at a mile on the turf in February.  Her first main track stakes start was her strongest to date in the Santa Ysabel, where she dropped back to seventh and made one run to finish third, more than 7 lengths behind Songbird.  Without that champion filly, Mokat would have been the winner of the Santa Anita Oaks but she was no match for her.  She kicked on home very well, however, after once more laying several lengths off the pace and did her best running late.  It was a solid effort and she looks to move forward, despite her previous best Brisnet numbers being well below some of the others in the field. 

This filly has been training forwardly in the mornings, and she looks like she's matured very well this season.  She gets over the track at Churchill Downs almost effortlessly, despite not having a timed work over it.  In her last work on the 26th at Santa Anita, she fired a bullet in 1:13 4/5 for six panels. 

This is a filly moving forward, and while I don't think she will win the big race, she has a live shot to hit the board.  She has been improving in the afternoons and looking strong in the mornings and despite never finding the wire first in a stakes event, she is definitely one to take a look at. 

The other Uncle Mo filly in the race will break right beside Mokat from the seven.  Hailing from the illustrious barn of Todd Pletcher, Mo d'Amour exits New York with three wins, including a stakes victory, to her name.  She gets the services of Joel Rosario for the first time in her career, and that jockey and trainer combination has always been dangerous. 

 

Mokat at Del Mar as a two-year-old (photo by Erin Sanderson)

 

Also by Uncle Mo, Mo d'Amour has a female family full of European influences beyond the second generation.  Her dam is the unraced Scat Daddy mare, Neverthesame, who was actually a RNA at $47,000 in 2012 in foal with Mo d'Amour at Keeneland November.  Her sire, the late multiple grade one winner Scat Daddy, always seemed to get good young horses, including one of last year's Kentucky Derby horses, El Kabeir.  Second dam Salut D'Amour is an Irish-bred stakes winning sprinter by Danehill Dancer and out of a daughter of Sadler's Wells.  Her dam line contains primarily sprint and mile influences, yet her best speed figures have come around two turns. 

Mo d'Amour has won twice in four starts this year with two third place finishes.  She got her stakes qualifications in the Busher at Aqueduct on the inner track, also earning her best late pace number in winning by two lengths.  In that race, she got an ideal trip along the rail, tracking a modest pace just inside of the favorite, Katniss the Victor.  She looked to hang a little as the top three made their moves rounding the turn, but she picked it up while swinging to the outside and ground her way to victory, finishing very well late.  In her most recent start, she was demolished for the second time in her career by Lewis Bay in the muddy Gazelle Stakes.  (She had previously run into that one in the Demoiselle, where she finished an uninspiring seventh.)  Battling for the lead early outside the pacesetter, Mo d'Amour was caught between horses turning for home as Lewis Bay ranged up to the outside.  She found herself flat-footed through the stretch and was absolutely no match for the winner or Royal Obsession, who finished second. 

This looks like a bit of dainty filly from the photos I've seen, and she even seems to tiptoe as she hits the ground in the videos I've seen of her training.  She had a very good breeze on the 28th, going four panels in :48.20, 7th fastest of 22 at the distance.  

Mo d'Amour comes from the same connections that brought us Princess of Sylmar a few years ago and has followed a similar road: winning the Busher and finishing on the board in the Gazelle.  That memorable filly won the Oaks at 38-1.  According to an article on the Bloodhorse, the decision was made to send Mo d'Amour to the Oaks after a couple of strong workouts following the Gazelle.  Pletcher usually doesn't bring three-year-olds to Churchill Downs that don't have some serious potential, but this filly doesn't look to be in anywhere near the same league as Princess of Sylmar, who won four of six, including two stakes races, going into the Oaks.  Of course, hindsight is twenty-twenty, and back then we had no idea how good the Princess actually was.  Anything could happen, but I would personally look elsewhere. 

Another of Lewis Bay's defeated rivals, and Steve Asmussen's second of three Oaks hopefuls, is Royal Obsession.  The big, gray daughter of Tapit has shown potential since she was a weanling, when she sold for $550,000 at the Keeneland November sale.  As a yearling, she went for $1 million at Fasig Tipton in August, then sold again just last November for $1.5 million to Stonestreet Stables. 

Royal Obsession has a blue-blooded pedigree.  Her sire, Tapit, is one of the premier stallions in North America and has been the leading sire of the last two years, commanding a stud fee of $300,000.  He gets very good fillies, including champions Untapable and Stardom Bound, and grade one winners Tapitsfly, Joyful Victory, Careless Jewel, and Zazu.  Her dam, Rote, is a winning daughter of Tiznow out of the Storm Cat mare Song to Remember.  Song to Remember also produced the grade one winner Magnificent Song, as well as Mindful Music, dam of Venezuelan champion The Mindfulangel.  Third dam, Wedding Reception, is a daughter of Round Table and out of a half sister to Mr. Leader. 

Royal Obsession won her first two starts before making her stakes debut in the Rachel Alexandra at Fair Grounds, won by Venus Valentine.  She ran with that one early on and actually made her move before Venus Valentine, rolling up on the far outside before hanging through the middle of the stretch.  She finished on well to get fourth, beaten only 1 3/4 lengths for the win.  She earned her best speed figure in the Gazelle, running a length and a half behind a geared down Lewis Bay.  She was rank early after getting bumped near the start and raced in behind horses down the back straight.  She swung out turning for home but was simply outrun by Lewis Bay. 

Royal Obsession has been training solidly at Churchill Downs since her run in the Gazelle Stakes.  Her breeze on April 25th was very good, going five in 1:00 flat, second fastest of 34 that day.  She had another easy half mile breeze on May 2nd in :50 2/5 in her final preparation for the race.  Having not seen any video of her training, I can only assume that she is training well approaching the race and looking to improve in the Oaks, based on comments by her connections in video and print. 

This is a big, strong filly, as many Tapits are, and she appears to need a little time to get rolling, which will probably not serve her well on Oaks day.  There are quite a few fillies with a similar running style that will likely cause some traffic turning for home, and if Florent Geroux can't give this one a good, clean trip that doesn't carry her very wide, she probably has no shot.  Anything can happen, though, and she has certainly moved forward in each of her starts, so she could be a reasonable longshot to keep an eye on tomorrow. 

Another longshot will follow Royal Obsession in the post parade: Paola Queen.  The Flatter daughter comes from the barn of Gustavo Delgado, and has raced almost solely at Gulfstream Park throughout her career.  She owns just one win in a maiden in five starts. 

Paola Queen has a more blue collar pedigree than most of the fillies in the race.  She is by the A.P. Indy son Flatter who has only recently risen in the ranks of Kentucky stallions, with horses such as $3.5 million earner Flat Out and one of last year's  early Derby favorites, Upstart, making noise on the track in the last few years.  Her dam is the multiple stakes winning sprinter Kadira, a daughter of the somewhat successful sire Kafwain.  Second dam, Raw Gold by Rahy, was a multiple graded stakes winner in the mid 1990s and a half sister to grade one winner Point Ashley. 

The dark bay filly broke her maiden sprinting on Valentine's Day, setting the pace and turning back a strong challenge late to win by a length.  She made her very next start in the Gulfstream Park Oaks where she faced fellow Oaks starter Go Maggie Go.  It takes a pretty nice horse to go straight from a maiden sprint into a two turn graded event and have any kind of success, and that is exactly what the top two finishers in that race did.  Paola Queen jumped out to an early lead through pretty quick fractions over a tiring track before being passed by both Go Maggie Go and Off the Tracks.  She persevered gamely through the stretch and actually re-rallied a bit to take back second by a half length over the favorite and 6 lengths clear of fourth.   

This is another filly that has not put up very impressive numbers, but she looks to be training well and performed admirably in her step into graded stakes company.  Her six furlong breeze on the 28th in 1:13 3/5 was smooth and professional, and she looks like a completely different filly (at least in these videos) than she was in the Gulfstream Park Oaks.  She improved in leaps and bounds from her maiden win, in my opinion, and is drawn inside of most of the serious speed.  She loses Javier Castellano to Rachel's Valentina, but gets Emisael Jaramillo, one of Florida's top jockeys who is winning on 20% of his mounts this year.  Paola Queen will definitely be part of the early pace, but it's up in the air as to whether she will be around in the end.  She is gritty and hard trying, and that inherent trait could keep her going further than another filly with identical physical traits.  I would expect her to be around at the end only if the pace isn't too fast.

The final horse in the second third of the post parade is Venus Valentine, yet another granddaughter of A.P. Indy from the barn of Tom Amoss.  She broke through in graded company in February after three straight off the board finishes (all three on a different surface) as a 74-1 longshot in the Rachel Alexandra at Fair Grounds.   

Venus Valentine is a daughter of Flatter's full brother, Congrats, sire of multiple grade one winner Turbulent Descent and one of the early Oaks favorites Polar River.  She is out of the multiple stakes winning sprinter Valentine Fever, a daughter of Stormin Fever.  Valentine Fever is the most accomplished foal from her winning Gilded Time dam, Betshe Hath a Way.  If you look back far enough, Venus Valentine's fifth dam is Quillopoly, the granddam of No Class, one of the greatest blue hens of the later 20th century.   

The dark chestnut Congrats filly broke her maiden at first asking at Ellis Park before finishing fourth in the Arlington Washington Lassie and then fifth and fourth in a pair of allowance optional claimers.  After exiting that last effort at a mile on the turf, she headed for the Rachel Alexandra.  Breaking flat footed and getting bumped from post three, she dropped as much as 14 lengths off a reasonably swift pace.  She didn't even enter the screen until they turned for home, then charged up the rail for a shocking win.  Garnering more respect in the Fair Grounds Oaks, she went off at 13-1.  Once again she broke last, but only managed to pace tiring rivals to finish fifth.  The pace was a bit slower in the Fair Grounds Oaks, and they came home significantly faster; the final 5/16 in the Fair Grounds Oaks was run in :32.04, as opposed to the :33.33 of the Rachel Alexandra. 

Venus Valentine has been training nicely in the mornings and seems as though she's come out of her last race with no ill effects.  She had a very fast breeze on April 20th, going six panels in a bullet 1:11 4/5.  Her final work was a bit slower: four furlongs in :49 2/5.  Her works at Churchill Downs are actually stronger than what she showed down at the Fair Grounds.   

This filly is deservedly a longshot, with slow speed figures and an inconsistent race record.  She could move forward, however, with the addition of blinkers that will, hopefully for her connections, probably sharpen her up in the early stages.  It's always a gamble shaking up a horse's equipment right before a big race, but with her complete lack of early speed, she looks like the type that could use blinkers.  A strong pace in the Oaks will move her up at the wire, but there are plenty of classy speed and stalker types that she will have to get by. 

Needless to say, the winner of the lilies is probably not coming out of this middle third of the field.  There are a couple of intriguing longshots that could pick up a piece, especially Mokat and Royal Obsession.  The gritty little Paola Queen could make a bid for hitting the super, as well, if only on heart.

The 2016 Kentucky Oaks Field (Part 1 of 3)

This year's Kentucky Oaks draws another full field, with one of my favorite fillies from last year on the also-eligible list (darn).  There are quite a few very high quality girls in the race, even lacking Songbird, and it seems that we can look forward to an exciting race on Friday.  If you're interested in such things, it'll be a great betting race, with tons of value across the board.  (Personally, I avoid betting.  I can pick them all day while at the track until I actually put money on them.)

The first of the fourteen to load into the gate will be Terra Promessa.  From the barn of Steven Asmussen, the bay filly is owned and was bred by Stonestreet Stables.  These are the same connections who campaigned her illustrious sire, Curlin, to multiple Horse of the Year titles.  Unlike her sire, though, she is not entering the first weekend in May with an undefeated record, but she has come close.  Her only stumbling block was her first start at Keeneland in October, where she hopped at the break and never quite settled before finishing third.  Her second race, this time at Churchill Downs and around two turns, was a victorious one, where she  tracked a slow pace and swung wide to draw clear as the even money favorite. 

Despite being by a classic-winning Horse of the Year, Terra Promessa may be slightly limited in distance.  Her siblings have all been sprinters, even by sires such as Awesome Again and Eskendereya.  She is by far the most accomplished of those siblings, as well.  Her half sister by Eskendereya, Mio Me, has only managed to be stakes placed (in a sprint on the turf) thus far. 

In her stakes bow, the Curlin filly thoroughly trounced her more highly regarded stablemate, Nickname, in the slop to win the Honeybee Stakes at Oaklawn Park.  She settled between horses just off the rail before moving three wide under her own power turning for home.  Briefly alongside Nickname, she drew off through the stretch under mild urging.  She earned her highest BRIS speed rating in that race, an 88, which is listed on their website as a "typical open claiming $10,000 winner."  Yikes.  Her closing pace rating was particularly slow there, as well.  You can't argue that she keeps winning, but her speed figures and closing fractions leave a little something to be desired.

She was very rank in her last race while in behind horses and only settled when she was allowed to pull her rider alongside the pacesetter.  As usual, she took the lead at the head of the stretch, but did not draw away as her stablemate, Taxable, roared up outside of her.  Both fillies seemed to run out of gas a bit in the last sixteenth, but Terra Promessa, the heavy favorite, held on narrowly to the wire.   

I haven't seen any videos of her training at Churchill Downs, but her workout pattern since the Fantasy has remained very similar to her previous works: leisurely four and five furlong breezes.  She's had three works over the surface, her most recent being an easy four panels in :50.80 on Monday. 

Terra Promessa is 10-1 on the morning line, and once bettors start looking closely at her past performances and speed figures, I would expect those odds to creep up a bit despite her record.  She's never been nine furlongs, and personally I think her wins around two turns are on class alone, not two turn stamina.  She's up against a solid group in the Oaks and probably won't be helped by her inside post.  Were I betting, I would look elsewhere. 

Right beside Terra Promessa will be the gorgeous Weep No More, winner of this year's Ashland Stakes at Keeneland, for which I was present.  On the day prior to the race, she caught my eye on the track, though I was unfamiliar with her.  Had I known exactly who I was looking at, I probably would have put money down and cashed in on her long odds. 

With four starts under her belt, the lovely chestnut daughter of Mineshaft is undefeated in three starts this season.  Like Terra Promessa, her only loss came in her debut race, a seven furlong maiden at Churchill Downs in which she finished eighth at 45-1.  After witnessing her racing style, her poor finish was probably due more to the lack of distance than any disliking for the Churchill Downs track.  She is a deep closer with a tremendous turn of foot (just watch the Ashland replay and look at her monstrous late pace figure of 104 from BRISnet) that has relished two turns since her sophomore debut at Tampa in January.   

As a two-year-old last year, she sold for $120,000 at the OBS March sale.  I would have expected a filly with her pedigree to bring a little more, but I may be biased toward Mineshaft fillies who are granddaughters of Flute.  Her sire has been very nice, with some good horses to his credit, including the 2015 Breeders' Cup Classic runner-up Effinex and three-time grade one winner and Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic runner-up It's Tricky.  Weep No More is inbred to Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew (3S x 3D) through her grandsire A.P. Indy and second dam, the Oaks winner Flute.  She is also inbred to Secretariat (4S x 4D) through his royal daughters Weekend Surprise and Terlingua (dams of A.P. Indy and Storm Cat).  Her dam, Crosswinds, raced only once and finished seventh on the synthetic at Turfway.  She was sold as a broodmare prospect in 2009 for $140,000.  She is a young mare, with only one other foal to race who is a maiden in 3 starts this season, though with two second place finishes.  Crosswinds's half sister, Filimbi, is a grade two winner on the turf (and a fan favorite due to her slightly crazy nature). 

From her training videos, Weep No More looks as if she has physically matured a bit since her run in the Ashland and she gets over the track well.  Her stride is efficient with plenty of propulsion from behind.  Her April 23 work at Churchill wasn't particularly encouraging, however, as she jumped to the wrong lead for several strides before switching back and finishing short of her workmate.  Rusty Arnold, a perennial top trainer at Keeneland, said of her April 30 work that she was preparing for the Oaks similarly to how she trained prior to the Ashland. 

Weep No More was well behind the pace in her stakes debut in the Suncoast at Tampa Bay and made a flying move rounding the turn for home, bulling her way through traffic and weaving to the outside of the leader to win going away.  Her Ashland run was similar, though the field was much smaller and she was much, much farther out of it early.  In the opening stages, she looked as though she was out for a morning gallop instead of a race as she dropped nearly 15 lengths out of it down the backstretch.  She was still almost 7 lengths off the lead at the head of the shortened stretch at Keeneland, then roared home in the final sixteenth to win by a neck.  She handed Cathryn Sophia her first career defeat and also took down the highly regarded Rachel's Valentina and Carina Mia.  Seeing it in person was nothing short of scintillating, and if she can duplicate the effort (hopefully closer to the pace) and get through traffic as she did in the Suncoast, she is a major threat for the Oaks. 

Weep No More wins the 2016 Central Bank Ashland Stakes (Photo by Erin Sanderson)

 

Lewis Bay, one of the top fillies in the race, drew the third post position.  Trained by Chad Brown, she has never been worse than second in five starts.  She was second in her Belmont sprint debut before winning her final two starts at two by open lengths, including a victory in the 9 furlong Demoiselle Stakes.   

The petite bay filly is a half sister to full brother graded stakes winners Misconnect and Winslow Homer, who both showed ability from 7 to 9 furlongs.  She is by the very hot sire Bernardini, a multiple classic winning son of A.P. Indy who has seen plenty of success both here and abroad.  Lewis Bay's pedigree also shows us the Rasmussen Factor: she is inbred 3S x 3D to the great Weekend Surprise through that mare's classic winning and producing sons A.P. Indy and Summer Squall.    

As a two-year-old, Lewis Bay was visually impressive in her Demoiselle win, swinging five or six wide turning for home and mowing down the leaders.  She ran down the stretch straight as an arrow until switching to her left lead in the final yards.  She only earned an 87 from BRISnet for the win, but she has since improved by quite a bit. 

In her three year old debut in February at Gulfstream, Lewis Bay ran into a rolling Cathryn Sophia.  She was no match for that one, finishing seven lengths behind in second.  Interestingly enough, that was still her fastest late pace number since she exited sprint races in her third start.  It was her most recent race in the Gazelle, however, that makes one want to take a closer look at her.  She was a good bit closer to the pace than in her loss in the Davona Dale and three-wide the entire way.  She ranged up alongside the pacesetters turning for home with her ears flicking, then drove home powerfully, leading at one point by five lengths before being geared down for the finish.  She did switch her leads back and forth once she got to the front, but she still came home her final eighth significantly faster than the boys in the Wood Memorial later in the day and finished just over three tenths of a second faster.  Her speed figure of 99 is the best last-race number any of this field has run, and an 11 point improvement from her previous best.  She soundly beat fellow Oaks starters Royal Obsession and Mo d'Amour. 

Since the Gazelle, she has been looking her usual strong self.  Her work on April 23 was solid, despite a slow time for the four furlongs (50.20).  She did still jump leads crossing the wire, but it doesn't seem much of a concern for her trainer, and she was under a stout hold while outside of her workmate.  This filly is all business when the going gets tough, and doesn't seem to switch her leads unless she's not being pushed, such as during the stretch run of the Gazelle.  She has created plenty of buzz in the mornings at Churchill Downs with the way she has been training.   

One of the classiest in the field, with the pedigree to match, Lewis Bay is deserving of second or third choice at post time.  She is undefeated around two turns, but a bit slower than the others except on that muddy track at Aqueduct.  There are still plenty of question marks, but Chad Brown is confident in his charge, and that has to say something.  This is definitely one to keep an eye on. 

Dale Romans has live horses in both the Derby and the Oaks, with Brody's Cause going on Saturday and Go Maggie Go set to break from the four post on Friday.  Another of my personal favorites, Go Maggie Go burst onto the scene with a shocking win in the Gulfstream Park Oaks in just her second career start. 

Anyone who knows me well enough knows that I adore Ghostzapper and thus his foals, and Go Maggie Go is no different.  Unfortunately, Ghostzapper hasn't set the world on fire as a sire, but he does tend to get some good ones at seemingly random distances and surfaces, from handicap types like Moreno to turf milers like Za Approval to dirt sprinters such as Judy the Beauty and top synthetic horses like Canada's Shaman Ghost.  Go Maggie Go is out of the Tale of the Cat mare Magibel, who also produced the late graded stakes winner Wallyanna who took the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame Stakes at Saratoga in 2014.  Another of my Keeneland spots, Wallyanna was another that I had a soft spot for, so Go Maggie Go was an automatic attention getter for me, despite her female family being littered with speed influences.  She's outrun her pedigree in impressive fashion so far, so there seems to be little reason for concern about an extra sixteenth of a mile from her last start. 

It really says something when a typically more conservative trainer such as Dale Romans takes a filly straight from a sprint debut to a two turn graded stakes.  Go Maggie Go has clearly shown him plenty of ability.  In the Gulfstream Park Oaks, she pressed a strong pace over a sloppy track before seizing command from the pacesetter Paola Queen entering the turn for home.  She shrugged off a challenge from heavy favorite Off the Tracks and stayed well clear to the wire as Paola Queen re-rallied. 

Unfortunately, I have yet to find a video of any of her works, but did catch a gallop from April 27 at Churchill Downs.  Physically, she looks like a very solid, mature filly compared to some of the others, and her way of going is very smooth and easy.  The video cut off as she was accelerating a bit down the backstretch, but I did not envy her rider, who looked to be water skiing by that point.  Her workouts have been solid, with her last breeze before the race a leisurely move in 1:03.60 on the 29^th.  According to a quote by her trainer, that was exactly what he wanted: slow and easy.   

We've seen so little of Go Maggie Go on the track that it's difficult to tell just what she will do.  She isn't a need the lead type, as seen in her sprint debut, and may have been particularly sharp coming off of that six furlong race against fillies who had run a bit longer in the Gulfstream Park Oaks.  She has the ability to be near the lead and still finish strongly, which is definitely a plus if the pace is slow.  Her tactical speed should serve her well, and Luis Saez really knows his way to the wire first.  She has a lot of the look of her sire about her, and if that's not a reason for me to like a horse, I don't know what is.  Should she continue to move forward from her previous two starts, she is definitely one to watch out for as a betting value, as well.  Her morning line odds are 12/1 and may creep up before post time, with a lot of the money going to higher profile, more seasoned fillies. 

The most seasoned filly in the race will break from post five.  Dream Dance, trained by Neil Howard, has shown flashes of class in her nine-race career, but has yet to put out an effort anywhere near the level of some of the others.  Her highest Brisnet figure is a 90, and that came in her third place finish (disqualified to 9th after testing positive for an overage of bute) in the Golden Rod Stakes last November at Churchill Downs. 

Dream Dance is by the fan favorite Preakness and Belmont winner Afleet Alex, also the sire of Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Texas Red and multiple grade one winner Iotapa, among others.  Her dam is the winning Vindication mare This Cat Can Dance, out of multiple graded stakes winning sprinter Katz Me If You Can.  Her third dam, Cuddles, was a grade one winner and granddaughter of Square Angel, who pops up in the tail female lines of quite a few top runners, including 1990 Kentucky Oaks winner Seaside Attraction (dam of champion two-year-old filly Golden Attraction and the grade one winner Cape Town, sire of 2003 Oaks winner Bird Town), Canadian champion Key to the Moon, English group one winner Music Show, Travers and Woodward winner Alpha, and the great "Horse of the World" Fantastic Light, among others.   

With all of her racing experience, Dream Dance has only two wins to her credit, her most recent victory coming in an allowance N1X (non-winners of a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter or non-winners of two races).  She was floated out a bit through the stretch by the pacesetter, but closed well four-wide.  The final fractions were nothing particularly impressive (last quarter in 26.14 and final sixteenth in 6.87).  Prior to that effort, she made her first start of the year in the Fair Grounds Oaks.  She dropped well off the pace and running in seventh and skimming the rail.  About midstretch, she moved through a tight hole between horses and ran on very strongly for second, galloping out with the winner, Land Over Sea. 

This filly has been training very aggressively leading up to the race.  She worked five panels in :59 3/5 on the 29th, eighth fastest of 53 at the distance.  She's a good-looking filly who looks to be on the improve and her gallops have been strong, as well as her works.   

Despite her winning her last start and training strongly for the race, Dream Dance is going to be a big longshot.  Her numbers have not been impressive and she has yet to break through in a stakes race.  She is a solid late running type who could get a small piece of the purse, but she will have to take a big step up to be really competitive against this bunch.

Of the first five fillies that will be going postward on Friday evening, two in particular stand out: Weep No More and Lewis Bay.  They couldn't be more different in appearance or running style, but they have both been impressive on their way to the Run for the Lilies.  It would be little surprise if either of them were on top at the wire.