The 2016 Kentucky Derby Post Parade (Part 2 of 2)

Here at the eleventh hour, this is mostly for fun.  And practice.  And I am certainly having fun.  Join me in meeting the second half of the Kentucky Derby field (plus one).

Breaking from post ten will be the Pleasantly Perfect gelding Whitmore, trained by the quietly savvy Ron Moquett.  This horse has the potential for improvement and is going to need a step forward to win the big dance.

The gelded son of Breeders' Cup Classic and Dubai World Cup winner Pleasantly Perfect is out of the unraced Scat Daddy daughter Melody's Cat.  She is out of the winning Tale of the Cat daughter Capture the Cat.  There isn't really a whole lot of blacktype in this particular female family, at least in the first few generations, but you can find Seattle Slew and Forty Niner daughters there, too. 

Whitmore is yet another late closer in this field and will no doubt be caught in a traffic jam at some point.  He's been putting in some very good runs down at Oaklawn Park, coming from out of the clouds to get a piece of it behind Cupid in the Rebel and Creator and Suddenbreakingnews in the Arkansas Derby.  He gets last year's Triple Crown jockey Victor Espinoza, who's won the last two Derbies in a row (on California Chrome and American Pharoah), so his rider definitely knows how to get to the wire first.  Whitmore himself has yet to break through in a stakes, but the mile and a quarter distance may be right up his alley.

Whitmore has been sharp in his morning works, getting five panels in 1:00 flat in his last work on April 29th in his first timed move at Churchill Downs.  There hasn't been a lot of buzz about this horse that I've heard, but it seems unlikely that Moquett would bring a three-year-old to the first Saturday in May that isn't ready to run a big one.  I'd rather take a wait and see approach on this one than put money on him.

Post eleven will be graced by Exaggerator, a horse who has been consistently in the shadow of Nyquist.  He's Keith Desormeaux's first Kentucky Derby starter and the only horse in the field to post four straight triple digit Brisnet speed figures. 

I love this horse's pedigree, of course.  He is by Curlin, winner of the Breeders' Cup Classic, Dubai World Cup and Preakness Stakes, and out of a stakes-placed daughter of the undefeated champion Seattle Slew son Vindication.  His dam, Dawn Raid, is out of the Bold Ruckus daughter Embur's Sunshine, also dam of Canadian champion Embur's Song.  His pedigree has a very nice balance of speed and stamina, and he's certainly run to it.

As a two-year-old, Exaggerator was brilliant enough to win the Saratoga Special, but fell short in the Breeders' Futurity behind Brody's Cause and in finishing fourth in the Breeders' Cup behind Nyquist, Swipe, and Brody's Cause.  He won the Delta Downs Jackpot in his last start as a two-year-old, then made his three-year-old debut behind Nyquist in the San Vicente.  He was third in the San Felipe to Danzing Candy but avenged that defeat in the absence of Nyquist over a very sloppy track in the Santa Anita Derby.  That race was his most visually impressive as he came from as many as 16 lengths off the pace to take command turning for home, exploding in the stretch to defeat Mor Spirit by 6 1/4. 

There is a lot to like about Exaggerator.  He's tough and well seasoned with nine starts under his belt and he's only twice been worse than third.  He's a grade one winner and is coming into the race in good shape.  He had a quick five furlong work at Santa Anita on the 23rd before shipping to Churchill Downs.  His last work was under the twin spires, a leisurely five panel move in 1:02 3/5.  He has tactical speed and can be anywhere he needs to be in the field, although it seems that his absolute best running is when he lays back and makes one big move.  Why isn't he one of my picks?  Well, I can't really say, but his last two graded stakes wins have come over an off track, and it doesn't look like he's going to get that in the Derby.  He's back against Nyquist and Brody's Cause, both of whom have soundly defeated him before.  He could easily prove my gut completely wrong.

Exaggerator in the post parade for the 2015 Breeders' Futurity (photo by Erin Sanderson)

 

Just beside Exaggerator in the starting gate will be a longshot by the name of Tom's Ready.  The dark colt comes out of the barn of Dallas Stewart, who has surprised us with Derby longshots hitting the board in the past (runners-up Golden Soul and Commanding Curve). 

 

Tom's Ready is a son of More Than Ready, a brilliant sprinter and miler whose foals tend to take after him in their distance preferences.  He gets a little stamina help from his dam's sire, Broad Brush, who got such classic types as Concern, Include, and Farda Amiga, and from his second dam's sire Deputy Minister, sire of Awesome Again, Touch Gold, Go For Wand, etc. 

 

This colt hasn't run numbers in the same class as some of the others, and he only has a maiden win to his credit.  He got beaten in the Street Sense last year by Mo Tom and finished eighth in the Kentucky Jockey Club.  This year, he finished second in the LeComte, again to Mo Tom, and came up flat in the Risen Star.  His runner-up finish in the Louisiana Derby was his best race to date, and he had his fair share of trouble early getting bumped at the break.  There is no doubt in my mind, however, that he would not have finished second had Mo Tom not gotten shut off deep in the stretch.  He was finishing nowhere near as strongly as that rival. 

 

Tom's Ready is coming into this race very similarly to how I remember Commanding Curve training.  His April 29th breeze was excellent, finishing five furlongs in :59 2/5.  He has been training much stronger at Churchill Downs since the Louisiana Derby than he did before it, and if anyone knows how to bring a longshot to hit the board in the big dance, it's Dallas Stewart.  Again, he's not one of my picks, but there's plenty to like.  Unfortunately, he's going to need an ideal trip, as he's yet another horse with little early speed.

 

The big favorite gets lucky number thirteen, the same post as his stablemate Land Over Sea got yesterday in the Kentucky Oaks.  In seven starts, Nyquist has never done anything wrong.  His record is flawless, and he has one of the top career best speed figures in the field.

 

The son of Uncle Mo is out of the winning Forestry mare Seeking Gabrielle.  She is out of the graded stakes winner Seeking Regina, a nicely producing daughter of Kentucky Derby winner Seeking the Gold.  Seeking Regina is also the second dam of Metropolitan Mile winner Sahara Sky.  Fourth dam Matriculation was a stakes winner at a mile and a half and by Belmont Stakes winner Arts And Letters, so both the stamina and the speed can be found in abundance in Nyquist's pedigree.

 

I could wax poetic for pages on what this horse has done in his racing career.  He has won when he was supposed, and even more impressively when he wasn't supposed to.  He was bumped hard at the start of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and farther back than he'd ever been before, all while six wide rounding the first turn.  He was three wide turning for home and still won.  He set a track record in the San Vicente in his first start this year, then came off a layoff in the Florida Derby to win wire to wire.  In that race, he not only defeated the previously unbeaten Mohaymen and fellow Derby starter Majesto, he also ran the fastest final eighth of any nine furlong prep race in the country, all while goofing off in the stretch.  This horse has serious ability and he proves his doubters wrong time and time again.

 

I got to see Nyquist in person a week after the Florida Derby and he did not look like a horse who had just passed one of the toughest tests of his career.  He looked ready to run again that weekend in the Blue Grass, actually.  There should be no concern about this horse having only two starts this year.  He has plenty of bottom from his five race campaign last season and his long breezes this year.  His final work for the Kentucky Derby was a one mile breeze in 1:41 and O'Neill is fond of long, fast gallops for fitness, as well.  He is looking excellent coming into the big race and is the deserving favorite.

 

With tactical speed, grit, toughness and sheer brilliance, Nyquist is one of my top picks for the Kentucky Derby.  These connections teamed up four years ago with I'll Have Another to win the first two legs of the Triple Crown, and there seems little reason to doubt that they could do it again this year.

 

Nyquist at Keeneland a week after the Florida Derby (photo by Erin Sanderson)

 

Mohaymen, the beaten favorite eight lengths behind Nyquist in the Florida Derby, comes back for another go from post position fourteen.  The handsome gray from Shadwell Stables and Kiaran McLaughlin will be looking for redemption in the Kentucky Derby, and he just might get it.

 

Another son of Tapit, Mohaymen sold for $2.2 million as a yearling to Shadwell.  He is out of the multiple graded stakes winner Justwhistledixie, a daughter of the multiple grade one winner Dixie Union.  The latter is often thought of as just a mile type sire, but his son Union Rags won the Belmont Stakes in 2012 and daughter Dixie Strike was third in the Queen's Plate against the boys and graded stakes placed at 10 furlongs.  Second dam General Jeanne is by Honour and Glory and also produced the fast sprinter Bakken.  Third dam Ahpo Hel is by the brilliant Mr. Leader, sire of Travers Stakes winner Wise Times and Santa Anita Handicap winner Ruhlmann, among others, and she is from the female family of the great Bold Irish, second dam of Ruffian.

 

Up until the Florida Derby, Mohaymen had been perfect in his career and largely unchallenged.  He soundly defeated highly regarded colts Zulu, Greenpointcrusader and Flexibility, among others at two and three, winning the Remsen and Nashua at two and the Holy Bull and Fountain of Youth this year.  I am of the firm belief that the Mohaymen we saw in the Florida Derby was not himself, and his workout patterns seem to indicate the same.

 

This fast colt has been training super aggressively in the mornings at Churchill Downs and he looks to be jumping out of his skin.  Hopefully he isn't too sharp for the Derby and trying to run away on the front end.  He has a ton of tactical speed and can lay anywhere in a great stalking position.  With his draw a bit to the outside, he might get a wide trip, but he should not encounter any traffic trouble.  I think Kiaran McLaughlin has a great shot to win his first Kentucky Derby with this colt.

 

Outwork will break from post 15 for the Derby.  The big, imposing son of Uncle Mo is hoping to do what his sire didn't get the chance to do for owner Mike Repole and trainer Todd Pletcher. 

 

The pedigree is certainly all there for Outwork.  His sire is represented by two other Derby starters, including the favored Nyquist, and he is out of the grade one placed Nonna Mia, a daughter of Belmont winner and Kentucky Derby runner-up Empire Maker who has sired such excellent horses as multiple champion Royal Delta, multiple grade one winner Grace Hall, Kentucky Derby runner-up Bodemeister, and Preakness winner and Triple Crown sire Pioneerof The Nile, among numerous others.  Nonna Mia is a half sister to once early Kentucky Derby favorite, Cairo Prince (also by Pioneerof The Nile), by the great Holy Bull.

 

This horse looks every bit as good as his pedigree and has only lost once in his four race career.  He got an early start, breaking his maiden in April at Keeneland last year, but was off with physical issues until this February, when he won a six furlong optional claimer at Tampa Bay by 4 1/4 lengths.  He was a solid second to Destin in the Tampa Bay Derby before winning a sloppy, rainy Wood Memorial.

 

There are doubts as to whether Outwork is actually fast enough to win the Kentucky Derby, but many clockers and handicappers seem to agree that he is blossoming at Churchill Downs and looks better than many of the other contenders.  He had a solid maintenance breeze on the 29th, going five in 1:01 flat, and his gallops have been smooth and effortless.

 

This horse has a lot of early speed, which might end up with him hung wide going into the first turn.  He has proven ability to battle back after being challenged, which is good to see in such a young, inexperienced horse, but his somewhat slower speed figures leave a little something to be desired.  You can't always bet the numbers though, and Outwork is certainly one to watch.

 

Chad Brown has a Derby starter breaking from post 16, and that is Shagaf.  He was a perfect three for three until a beaten favorite in the Wood Memorial, but his typically reserved trainer seems very confident in his chances.

 

By red hot sire Bernardini, Shagaf certainly looks like the hot-blooded type.  He is out of the stakes winning Unbridled's Song daughter Muhaawara.  Out of multiple grade one winner Habibti, Muhaawara is a half sister to Breeders' Cup Marathon winner Eldaafer.  Habibti is out of a daughter of Belmont, Travers, and Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Temperence Hill, so this horse at least has the pedigree to love ten furlongs.

 

Shagaf won the Gotham Stakes earlier in the year over the inner track as Aqueduct and went into the Wood Memorial as the favorite.  That race was his first attempt over a muddy track and he was also further back than he was used to, having to rally wide into the lane before coming up empty in the final eighth.  Chad Brown says "draw a line through it" though, and I am inclined to listen to him.

 

This horse looks to have put on weight since the Wood Memorial and has been breezing very well since arriving at Churchill Downs, with two nice half mile moves over the track.  Physically, he looks a little more like a mile type in my opinion, but so did Cathryn Sophia, and she proved me completely wrong yesterday.  Don't discount this horse, with his stellar pedigree, obvious talent, hot handed jockey and future Hall of Fame trainer. 

 

Out wide in the 17 post is the Bob Baffert trainee, Mor Spirit.  The big dark bay colt is an imposing figure and very distinctive on the track with his low carriage and massive stride.  The grade one winner was a bargain as a yearling when he was purchased for $85,000, only to be resold as a two-year-old to his current connections for $650,000.

 

Mor Spirit is a son of the very talented Wood Memorial winner Eskendereya, who was retired due to a soft tissue injury before he could start in the 2010 Kentucky Derby.  The son of Giant's Causeway out of a Seattle Slew mare was at one time haled as the next great three-year-old and the best chance we'd seen in years to win the Triple Crown.  Mor Spirit is out of the speedy stakes winner I'm a Dixie Girl, a daughter of previously mentioned Dixie Union.  Second dam I'm Out First was a multiple stakes winner and daughter of Allen's Prospect, whose get tended to be both speedy and tough.  Third dam Sequins is also the second dam of Breeders' Futurity (G1) and Robert B. Lewis (G2) winner Great Hunter.

 

Mor Spirit is one of the more consistent horses in the race.  In seven starts, he has won three and finished second four times, earning more than $650,000 to date.  He broke his maiden in his first two turn start, a mile maiden at Santa Anita Park, by 4 1/4 lengths.  He shipped to Kentucky to be second in the sloppy Kentucky Jockey Club, then came from behind to win the Los Alamitos Futurity.  This year, he won the Robert B. Lewis Stakes in very nice fashion before finishing second to a flying Danzing Candy in the San Felipe, defeating Exaggerator by three parts of a length.  He was again second in the Santa Anita Derby and just never seemed to get ahold of the track, but he kept grinding to finish 2 1/4 lengths ahead of the next horse, Uncle Lino.

 

This horse has been training extremely well since arriving at Churchill Downs, with two five furlong moves in :59 4/5.  He's a big, long-striding horse with some tactical speed, though he's going to need a clean trip to avoid getting shut off and having to rebreak.  He doesn't have a scintillating turn of foot, but he is a determined grinder who will come after you until the end.  I love this horse going ten furlongs at Churchill Downs and he will get three-time Kentucky Derby winning jockey Gary Stevens in the irons.

 

Mor Spirit as a two-year-old at Del Mar (photo by Erin Sanderson)

 

Breaking from post 18 will be the longshot Majesto.  He is Gustavo Delgado's first Kentucky Derby starter, but doesn't look as if he quite belongs with this bunch.

 

The bay ridgling is by dual Breeders' Cup Classic winner Tiznow and out of the unraced Unacloud, a daughter of the grade one winning handicapper Unaccounted For.  Second dam Clouds Ambre is by the speedy stakes winner and sire Two Punch and third dam Arctic Cloud was a multiple stakes winner up to a mile and a sixteenth. 

 

In six starts, Majesto has only won once in breaking his maiden at a mile and a sixteenth in February at Gulfstream Park.  In a bold move, his connections pointed him for the heavyweight dogfight that the Florida Derby was supposed to be.  The match race between Nyquist and Mohaymen never really developed, and Majesto closed very well to grab second, beaten 3 1/4 lengths by the west coast invader.  His performance there was certainly good, but he also got the ideal trip along the inside that none of the other top finishers could take advantage of.

 

Majesto has been training well going into the Derby, but he just doesn't have the look of a Derby winner.  He has a big, ground-covering stride, but I almost think it's too big to be translated into speed and athleticism, which may be necessary to avoid a wide trip from this post position.  For me, he's a toss.

 

Post nineteen (my lucky number) will hold Brody's Cause, a big, strong colt who is a multiple grade one winner for the barn of Dale Romans.  Romans seems extremely confident in this horse going into the first Saturday in May and says he will have no excuses today.

 

"Brody" is a son of the great Giant's Causeway and actually has one of the best classic dosage profiles of anyone in the race.  His dam is the multiple stakes placed Sweet Breanna.  Her sire, Sahm, was a Mr. Prospector graded stakes winner on the turf and the only son of Irish Derby winning filly Salsabil.  Second dam is the talented Sweet Roberta, a graded stakes winning daughter of three-time champion and Epsom Derby winner Roberto, who sired the great turf horse Sunshine Forever and perennial leading sire Dynaformer.  Brody's third dam, Candy Bowl, is a half sister to sire Cure the Blues and by record-setting multiple grade one winner Majestic Light.  He is from the female family of the memorable Imperatrice, second dam of Secretariat.

 

Brody's Cause made his first start at a mile on the turf and was beaten 25 lengths, but once he switched to dirt, he only has one bad race.  Dale Romans says that his multiple grade one winner had legitimate excuses for the Tampa Bay Derby and to cross that one out.  He came back with a powerful win in the Blue Grass, in which he closed from more than 10 lengths off the pace and navigated a fourteen horse field to win going away.  He played around a bit in the stretch with no one to push him and jumped to the wrong lead, but it was also Luis Saez's first time riding him.  Saez should have a better feel for him this time out and be able to drop him back into the clear.  His speed figures are a concern, but he seems like the type of horse that we haven't seen the bottom of yet.

 

Brody has also been training very well at Churchill Downs.  He's been very on the muscle and getting over the track smoothly, including in his April 30th breeze in 1:00 1/5, fourth fastest of 57 at the distance that day.  That work was unaccompanied and very professional, although he did change leads approaching the wire as he did in the Blue Grass before galloping out strongly around the turn.

 

Brody's Cause has been one of my favorites since I picked him in the post parade for the Breeders' Futurity, and he looks like a colt made to go the ten furlongs.  He's going to come running, but we'll see if he's actually fast enough to get there.  I'd still use him in a trifecta, superfecta or across the board bet.

 

Brody's Cause winning the 2016 Blue Grass Stakes (photo by Erin Sanderson)

 

The final horse in the Derby gate will be Danzing Candy, the first Derby starter for trainer Cliff Sise, Jr.  The graded stakes winner has blazing speed, but his ability to get ten furlongs first from the far outside is a point of debate.

 

He is a son of Twirling Candy, the record-setting sprinter who also placed second in the Pacific Classic and third in the Hollywood Gold Cup.  His dam Talkin And Singing is a daughter of Songandaprayer, probably most famous for setting the most torrid pace in Kentucky Derby history in 2001.  Talkin And Singing is a half sister to Breeders' Cup Turf winner Better Talk Now, both produced from the Baldski daughter Bendita. 

 

Danzing Candy broke his maiden the day after Christmas at Santa Anita, winning at seven furlongs by 3 1/4 lengths in his first start under Mike Smith.  He clicked off two more wins, both gate to wire, including the San Felipe over Mor Spirit and Exaggerator.  In the Santa Anita Derby, he was sent from the gate after not breaking the sharpest and just never relaxed thereafter.  It's been theorized that the mud hitting him in the belly could have been the culprit, or he just didn't feel like rating.  Either way, he set blazing fractions and faded to be beaten by 13 lengths by Exaggerator.

 

This colt hasn't had a timed work over the Churchill Downs strip, but he has been training sharply, his last breeze on the 30th five furlongs in :59 4/5.  I've seen absolutely zero video of him since he arrived at Churchill, but it would seem silly for a horse with his kind of talent to be there if he wasn't fit (of course, we've seen sillier).  I think he is at an extreme disadvantage from the far outside post and if he wants a ground saving trip, Smith will have to use him to clear the entire field.

 

Personally, this race has me entirely baffled.  There are eight or nine that I like and think have a big shot to win, and I can make a good case for just about all of them.  I'd be playing combinations of Nyquist, Mohaymen, Mor Spirit, Brody's Cause, Destin, Suddenbreakingnews, Gun Runner and perhaps Mo Tom or Lani for kicks.  I'm tempted to toss Trojan Nation into a ten cent Nyquist/Mor Spirit/all superfecta box to see what happens.

The 2016 Kentucky Derby Post Parade (Part 1 of 2)

This will hardly be as detailed as my Oaks rundown, since I haven't had any motivation, but who can resist doing something special for the Kentucky Derby for long?  I have to admit that, no matter how much I look at it, this field leaves my head spinning, and I keep returning to the five colts I adored last season: Nyquist, Mohaymen, Brody's Cause, Mor Spirit and Trojan Nation.  I can make a strong case for several others, including Creator, Gun Runner, and Exaggerator.  But why don't we start at the top and see where we end up? 

Leading the post parade will be the maiden Trojan Nation.  He's bucking history in a big way.  No horse has won the Kentucky Derby to break their maiden since 1933 when Broker's Tip did it in a shocker.  And don't forget that it's been 30 years since a horse breaking from the rail has won the Derby.

I spotted this guy back in August at Del Mar after he'd just come off the track and I was blown away by his physicality.  He's a big, long-striding colt with a giant walk and an overall classy look to him.  Once I saw that pedigree, I was hooked.  He's by the classic sire Street Cry, who got 2007 Derby winner Street Sense and numerous other excellent runners, and out of the champion race mare Storm Song, by classic winner Summer Squall.   

A maiden is a maiden, but this one is grade one placed and probably the richest three-year-old maiden in the country.  He's shown a variety of running styles to his various on the board finishes, but his best races have been come-from-behind finishes.  Last out in the Wood Memorial, he was as many as 17 lengths off the lead before roaring up the rail to nearly catch Outwork for the win.  He was in very tight quarters but still finished well, so at least he isn't afraid to move through traffic.  

Trojan Nation (I call him "TJ") doesn't seem to know he lost.  According to his trainer, Paddy Gallagher, he has been a different horse since leaving New York.  He's certainly been training aggressively and looks like he has been a handful in the mornings.  His last breeze on the 28th at Santa Anita was a bullet 1:12 3/5 for 6 furlongs. 

As much as I adore this colt, I don't think he's going to make modern day history.  His far inside post position and late running style will do him absolutely no favors in this big of a field.  I don't doubt that he will be passing horses in the stretch, but it will probably be too little too late.  He might be one to use in a superfecta box, however. 

 

Trojan Nation at Del Mar as an unraced two-year-old (photo by Erin Sanderson)

Donnie Von Hemel's trainee Suddenbreakingnews will head to the gate next.  This horse has improved almost every race since he was disqualified from the win in his very first race at Remington Park on the turf.  He has been exceptionally consistent, winning or finishing second in all but one of his eight career starts.

Really, the more I look at Suddenbreakingnews, the more I like him.  This gritty gelding has only one bad race where he admittedly did not get the best trip in the Rebel Stakes.  He was very impressive circling the field in the Southwest Stakes to win powering away from Whitmore, then ended up widest of all in the Arkansas Derby and finished better than anyone in the race. 

He certainly has the pedigree of a ten furlong horse.  His sire, Mineshaft, was a four-time grade one winner including the 1 1/4 mile Jockey Club Gold Cup and Suburban Handicap.  His dam, Uchitel, is by Preakness and Belmont hero Afleet Alex and out of Party Cited, winner of the 11 furlong Yerba Buena Handicap, by dual Arc de Triomphe winner Alleged.  To add to the appeal of a true classic pedigree, this horse has been training exceptionally well since the Arkansas Derby.  His five panel move on April 29th was impressive: smooth, professional, and fast in :59 3/5. 

Morning line odds of 20-1 just don't seem fair for Suddenbreakingnews.  He's consistent, tough, and has been preparing for the big race as well as anyone.  His inside post position probably won't help him, though, and will more than likely force him into another situation where he has to drop way out of it and circle the field.  The long Churchill Downs stretch and extra furlong could help him get there.  This is definitely one to watch.

The handsome gray Creator will exit the three post for new Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen.  The first of three sons of Tapit in the field, the big colt took a few starts to get his running legs under him.  He broke his maiden in his sixth try, going from last to first in the blink of an eye around the turn and roaring home more than seven lengths clear. 

By now, I believe we all know the merits of Tapit as a sire in terms of class, speed, and all around awesome.  Creator's dam is an unusual one, though.  A two-time Peruvian champion, Morena was also multiple graded stakes placed here in the United States.  She is by Privately Held, an excellent stamina influence in Peru by Private Account, and out of a daughter of Belmont winner Summing.

In six starts on the dirt, Creator has never been worse than second, and his win in the Arkansas Derby was downright powerful.  He came home the final eighth of a mile in :12 3/5, a sight faster than many of the others have accomplished at nine furlongs, and his late pace number of 101 was very good.  He's been training pretty leisurely since then, but after popping his highest career speed figure, he doesn't need any more incentive to bounce.

This is another horse with a lot of class that will probably be hurt by his post position.  He has next to no early speed and will find himself well behind and likely in the clear, but making his way through a 20 horse field is a much different animal than he's faced before.  If anyone can pull off circling this big field on Saturday, it could be the big-striding gray Creator.

Breaking from post four is Mo Tom, who just may be this year's Dollar Bill.  The poor colt just can't seem to stay out of trouble.  Even in his win in the LeComte Stakes in January, he hit the gate at the start, then had his hind end nearly taken out from under him going into the first turn. 

The first of Uncle Mo's representatives in this year's Derby, Mo Tom is out of the Rubiano mare Caroni, also the dam of Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies runner-up Beautician.  Caroni is a half sister to the multiple graded stakes winning sprinter Kashatreya.  Second dam Deuce Carrotte, by Caro, is a half sister to multiple graded stakes winner Lady At Peace.  There's a healthy mix of speed and stamina in Mo Tom's pedigree, and his race performances indicate he can run to the stamina side of it as well as he can the speed.

He broke his maiden at first asking at six furlongs, then took the one mile Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs in his third race before finishing a solid third in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes behind Airoforce and Mor Spirit.  His previously mentioned run in the LeComte was excellent and he came home with a late pace figure of 103, one of the best in the Derby field.  Since then, he's been a hard luck case, having to check hard mid-rally in both the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby, both won by Gun Runner.  He was absolutely flying in the Risen Star before bouncing off the rail and re-rallied to finish better than anyone.  It was almost a perfect replay in the Louisiana Derby for Mo Tom, who was full of run until his rider steered him to the rail and got shut off once more.

This is a very nice horse who has not been training poorly at all, but he does look a bit light coming into the Derby.  He still looks a bit narrow bodied and lanky, as if he has some maturing left to do.  There is no doubt he is a talented horse, but whether he is ready for this race is the question.  And whether he can make it through a bigger field than he's ever seen before without running into trouble.  Corey Lanerie is going to have to give him a much better ride than he has in the last two to win this one.

Gun Runner leads the Kentucky Derby points standings with 151 after winning the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby.  The handsome chestnut has moved forward in each of his five career starts, at least numbers wise, and doesn't show any signs of slowing down.  Another from the barn of Steve Asmussen, this horse is coming off quite a layoff since the Louisiana Derby and would be bucking history if he won the roses on Saturday.  The only horse to win the Kentucky Derby after taking the Fair Grounds prize was Grindstone in 1996.  Recent winners of the race have not fared so well at Churchill Downs, however (last year's winner International Star never made the starting gate, and the 2014 winner Vicar's In Trouble was 19th). 

The son of record setting Pacific Classic winner Candy Ride has plenty going for him, though.  He is out of the talented graded stakes winner Quiet Giant, a half sister to Horse of the Year Saint Liam by top sire Giant's Causeway.  That pedigree is all class and so is this colt's race record.  He's won four out of five, with only one poor effort in the slop at Churchill Downs, where he finished fourth last fall in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes.  Never fear: he broke his maiden under the twin spires at first asking going a mile in October, so I don't think he dislikes the track and it won't be muddy on Derby Day.

Gun Runner has excellent tactical speed and is able to put himself in a good position early on, which will serve him well in the cavalry charge to the first turn.  The horses drawn inside of him are, for the most part, stone cold closers, so finding the rail and saving ground should be no problem for him.  He was perfectly comfortable running covered up along the rail in the Louisiana Derby before powering home 4 1/2 lengths to the good.  Even with a clean trip, I doubt Mo Tom could have caught him that day.

This colt could be eligible for a bounce after five straight races in which he ran a bigger speed figure than he did the previous start, but he has been training very forwardly.  His breeze in company on April 25th was particularly impressive, as he strode away from his workmate with ease and finished in 1:12 1/5 for the six furlongs.  All the ingredients are here: proven class, tactical speed, experience, and stamina.  With a savvy rider like Florent Geroux in the saddle, this horse should get a clean trip and could be very dangerous.

Gun Runner at Keeneland as a two-year-old (photo by Erin Sanderson)

 

My Man Sam will exit post six.  The Chad Brown trainee is light in the graded stakes experience department and has only started over the main track anywhere once.  Prior to his second place finish in the Blue Grass, all three of his starts had come over the inner track at Aqueduct.

 

By the versatile Tapit son Trappe Shot, who finished second in the Haskell Invitational and was also a graded stakes winning sprinter, My Man Sam is out of the graded stakes placed Arch daughter Lauren Byrd.  The latter is a half sister to multiple graded stakes winning turf runner Hudson Steele, both out of the stakes placed Smart Strike mare Strike the Sky.  There's plenty of classic stamina to be found in this colt's pedigree, and two turn races have never seemed to faze him.

 

In his second start and three-year-old debut, My Man Sam flew home 8 lengths in front of a maiden field at Aqueduct, moving forward tremendously around two turns from his sprint debut.  He was a solid second behind Matt King Coal next out in an optional claimer before invading Kentucky for the Blue Grass.  He was far back early and a bit rank, and it took him a while to really get going, but after fanning eight-wide on the turn he finished strongly to get second in his graded stakes debut. 

 

There's nothing to argue about in regards to this colt's appearance in the mornings.  His works have been steady and his gallops strong and smooth, though his rider may want to invest in a face mask (he does tend to have a habit of flipping his head in the air when he wants to do more).  Chad Brown has been on fire the last few weeks and he wouldn't bring a horse into the Derby without having him in tip top shape.  There's plenty to like about My Man Sam, though he isn't one of my top picks.

 

My Man Sam the day before the Blue Grass Stakes (photo by Erin Sanderson)

 

Post number seven will be filled by Oscar Nominated from the barn of Mike Maker.  The 50-1 morning line odds are probably well deserved, as this horse has run nowhere near the kinds of numbers other contenders have put up. 

 

This good-looking chestnut colt is by turf superstar Kitten's Joy and out of the Theatrical daughter Devine Actress.  His pedigree screams turf at first glance, but his dam did get her stakes win on the dirt.  His second dam, by Mr. Prospector, is also a half sister to record-setting Arlington Washington Futurity winner Sorcerer's Stone, so there's some dirt ability to be found there.

 

Oscar Nominated himself has only once run on anything other than turf, and that was in his last start, the Spiral Stakes.  He earned his career best speed figure in a gutsy win over Azar, but that was well below many of the others in this field.  The Spiral has coughed up some very good horses, including two Derby winners, in recent years: Street Sense, who finished fourth behind Derby runner-up Hard Spun in 2007 and 2011 Derby winner Animal Kingdom.  The latter was also making his first start on dirt in the Run for the Roses and had a primarily turf pedigree, so it has happened before.

 

This colt didn't look like he was working in 1:00 4/5 in his April 29th breeze and he galloped out as strongly as any I've seen all week.  His stride doesn't look particularly big and extended, but he certainly gets over the ground quickly.  He looked at home on the dirt, but he's going to have to take a major step up to be competitive against this field.  If he can take those steps forward, he could threaten the top contenders with his tactical speed and good post position, but if I were betting, I'd rather put my money somewhere else.

 

One of the most intriguing horses in the field simply due to his quirky personality and morning antics, Lani will break from post eight under leading Japanese jockey Yutaka Take.  Both foreign horses and winners of the UAE Derby have fared poorly in the Run for the Roses in the past, but Lani looks like the type who could turn those fortunes around.

 

The big gray burst onto the Derby scene with a grinding victory in the UAE Derby back in March over the star filly Polar River.  He shipped to the United States much earlier than any of his predecessors to get acclimated to the environment at Churchill Downs.  That was certainly a forward-thinking move on the part of his connections, but it hasn't stopped Lani from giving them fits in his preparations.

 

This colt has been nothing if not temperamental since his arrival at Churchill Downs.  In his first breeze stateside, he refused to run and barely went fast enough to earn a timed workout, getting five furlongs in 1:06 flat.  A week later, he didn't get into gear until nearly halfway through what was supposed to be another five furlong breeze, instead earning a three furlong time of :37 2/5.  Continuing his unusual (at least for us Americans) training schedule of long stints on the track in the mornings, Lani had his final breeze on Tuesday: a much more aggressive five furlongs in 1:01 flat, third fastest on the day.  His final eighth was a strong one in :12 2/5.

 

Lani may be as good as any of the others in the field if he decides to run.  In the UAE Derby, he fell flat on his face at the start and was far back early on before making a big middle move into contention down the back straight.  He won by just under a length in a solid final time. 

 

Another Tapit son, Lani's dam's side is all classic types.  His dam, Heavenly Romance, is a Japanese bred, grade one winning daughter of Sunday Silence out of the unraced Sadler's Wells daughter First Act.  The latter is a half sister to Irish St. Leger winning filly Dark Lomond, out of the Ribot daughter Arkadina.  Fourth dam Natashka won the Alabama Stakes at 10 furlongs and was the 1981 Broodmare of the Year.

 

I would be tempted to put money on Lani just for fun, but he also has a big shot in the race if he can stay out of trouble.  He's a big horse that would not be doing himself any favors if he had to hit the brakes; it would just take too long for him to re-rally.  He's one to keep in mind at the betting windows.

 

Right beside Lani will be another grey, Destin.  The Todd Pletcher trainee has followed an extremely unorthodox path to the starting gate, leaving some scratching their heads.  The eight week layoff is a huge concern, but if any trainer can have a horse ready to run in the Kentucky Derby off such a break, it's probably Pletcher.

 

The son of Giant's Causeway has a blue-blooded pedigree and looked good enough even as a yearling to sell for $400,000 at Keeneland in September 2014.  Out of the grade one winner Dream of Summer, he is a full brother to another talented gray colt, Creative Cause.  The latter was a grade one winner at two and a grade two winner at three, and finished fifth in the Derby and third in the Preakness. 

 

It's hard to argue with those kind of pedigree connections in a horse who set a track record in his last start, defeating two other major Kentucky Derby contenders in the process.  He made his stakes debut in January, finishing fourth behind Mo Tom and Tom's Ready in the LeComte at Fair Grounds.  It was his first two-turn race and he certainly moved forward in the Sam F. Davis a month later, roaring home by 2 1/4 lengths and earning his career high speed figure.  After getting bumped at the break and racing three-wide for much of the early going in the Tampa Bay Derby, Destin moved to the leader, Wood winner Outwork, turning for home as Brody's Cause sputtered far back.  Destin and Outwork slugged it out through the stretch, but it was Destin who got the better of his rival late, setting the track mark for a mile and a sixteenth.

 

Destin is another big-striding colt, and he's been smooth and professional in the mornings.  His April 29th work in company was very solid.  Rounding the turn, his ears were flicking back and forth, but coming down the stretch he got down to business and worked well around the turn into the backstretch.  He got an official time of 1:01 and was caught galloping out seven furlongs in 1:27 flat.

 

There were no physical issues that caused Destin's long layoff, at least nothing published.  The plan, according to Pletcher, was to run him fresh in the Kentucky Derby, and he does have the foundation of three starts this year, with some others having only run twice.  This is yet another talented colt with a bright future, and he gets a good post and excellent jockey in Javier Castellano to go with his tactical speed.  Destin could have a big shot to get to the wire first on Saturday.

 

That's almost the entire first half of the field, and this writer needs to get to sleep.  It is currently 4:30 am on Kentucky Derby morning.  I hope everyone's ready for a big day.  On a completely Derby-unrelated side note, go Shakhimat (in the American Turf)!

The 2016 Kentucky Oaks Field (Part 3 of 3)

The post time favorite for this year's Kentucky Oaks will likely come from the far outside.  The three most accomplished fillies in the field will break from posts 11, 12, and 13, including the morning line favorite, Rachel's Valentina.

The only daughter of Rachel Alexandra, Rachel's Valentina will exit the paddock wearing the number 11 under John Velazquez.  The Todd Pletcher trainee garnered attention very early as the second and likely last foal from her great dam and did not disappoint, breaking her maiden at first asking at Saratoga and winning a grade one in only her second start.

Rachel's Valentina's pedigree is simply full of superlatives.  Her brilliant, classic-winning sire has already been mentioned previously as the sire of Lewis Bay, and her dam is one of the best race fillies we have seen in decades.  Interestingly enough, both of this filly's parents won the Preakness Stakes and were champion three-year-olds in their respective years.  Rachel Alexandra, by the excellent filly sire Medaglia d'Oro (seriously, he gets freaky good fillies; he also has Songbird, who I feel bears an uncanny resemblance to "Rachel"), is out of the stakes winning Roar mare Lotta Kim.  Up until this point, the female family appears to be consistently producing useful stakes types, but nothing truly on the grade one level like Rachel Alexandra and her daughter. 

Rachel's Valentina has done nothing wrong in her four race career, winning the grade one Spinaway in impressive fashion in only her second career start.  Her very first two-turn race was in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies at Keeneland, in which she finished second to the undefeated champion Songbird.  It would be five months before we would get see her race again.  Barbara Banke, owner of Stonestreet Stables, said she "was a little light going into the Breeders' Cup" and that they "wanted to make sure she was 150% before we put her back in training."  She was definitely up against it in her first start back.  The field was short but classy in this year's Ashland Stakes, also drawing the then undefeated Cathryn Sophia, highly regarded Carina Mia and stakes performers Weep No More and Banree.  She was a handful for Florent Geroux through much of the early stages of the race before settling down the backstretch in second.  Turning for home, it looked like the three-horse race everyone expected, with Cathryn Sophia, "Rachel Jr.", and Carina Mia head and head turning for home.  She battled very gamely between horses and looked a winner in the last 50 yards until Weep No More appeared out of the clouds.  Considering that it was her first start in five months, it was a very, very good race that she sorely needed.  We can certainly expect her to be fitter and readier for the Oaks than she was at Keeneland.

This filly has definitely been training more sharply since the Ashland.  Her half mile breeze on April 28th in company was excellent.  She drew clear of her workmate, who was getting scrubbed on pretty strongly, with little to no urging from her rider and galloped out smoothly and professionally well down the backstretch.  She seems to get over the Churchill track very well and has a gorgeous way of going, with a lot of forward reach and propulsion and extension in the rear. 

Rachel's Valentina is a very deserving morning line favorite.  She may not have run the fastest numbers of the fillies in the race, but she is probably the most consistently at the top since her career began.  The Oaks wasn't even the original plan with her, according to Banke, but she earned her way there.  She gets John Velazquez back, and Todd Pletcher's horses put up monstrous numbers second off the layoff.  There is no doubt she will be primed for a big effort on Friday, and it would not surprise me if she won the race that earned her mother a spot in the Preakness Stakes. 

Rachel's Valentina after the Ashland Stakes (photo by Erin Sanderson)

 

Also exiting the Ashland is Cathryn Sophia, trained by John Servis.  Prior to her run at Keeneland, she was undefeated in four starts, all one turn events.  She does have the most consistently high speed numbers of any filly in the field, even in her third place finish last out in her first start around two turns.

 

Cathryn Sophia is by the useful sire Street Boss, a multiple grade one winning son of Street Cry who, unlike many of his sire's get, excelled in sprints.  He seems to pass on that speedy trait to many of his foals, though his son Danza did win the 2014 Arkansas Derby and finish third in the Kentucky Derby.  Her dam's side doesn't lend itself well to the type of nine furlong stamina that Cathryn Sophia will need, either, despite her unraced dam, Sheave, being by Mineshaft.  It's hard to tell how Sheave's sire will affect Cathryn Sophia, since she is the mare's first foal.  Second dam, Belterra, by Unbridled, won the 8 1/2 furlong Golden Rod Stakes, but her only stakes-winning foal (also by a son of Street Cry, the Derby winner Street Sense) got her blacktype in a seven furlong race.  Third dam Cruising Haven got the multiple graded stakes winning sprinter Royal Haven by a son of the great stamina influence Graustark, though she is the second dam of the neat Russian classic winner Persey Bars.

 

Before the Ashland, Cathryn Sophia was perfect.  In her first two starts, she broke her maiden by 12 lengths then won the Gin Talking at Laurel by 16, earning her highest Brisnet figure of 102.  She stepped it up into graded company for the Forward Gal Stakes at Gulfstream in January, taking back off the pace for the first time in her career before exploding clear through the stretch to win by 5 1/2.  The scene in the Davona Dale was much the same, though she was a bit closer to a more moderate pace, where she stunned Lewis Bay by seven lengths.  In her most recent start, she was widest throughout while pressing the pace before making her run four-wide turning for home.  She got the lead briefly before fading just a touch and relinquishing second to Rachel's Valentina as Weep No More swept by both of them.

 

Cathryn Sophia has always trained particularly well in the mornings, with bullets showing up next to her workouts seven times since November.  Her last work was particularly impressive.  She breezed five furlongs at Keeneland and did not in any way look as if she were clipping off a :59 3/5 pace.  She actually looks as if she's grown a bit since the Ashland, with a bit more muscle in her hind end than when I saw her in April.  She is a compact little filly with a quick, snappy stride that actually puts me in mind a bit of Xtra Heat.  As much of a fan as I am of Cathryn Sophia, I don't see her winning the Oaks.  Her pedigree, physicality, and race performance all point to her being a brilliant sprinter who can carry her speed up to a mile at the highest level.  She could still pick up a piece of it on grit alone, but I feel her best running going forward will be around only one turn and breaking from the outside as a speed horse will do her few favors.

 

Cathryn Sophia prior to the Ashland Stakes (photo by Erin Sanderson)

 

Breaking from post 13 is another filly who will definitely be one of the top choices for the big dance.  Land Over Sea, from the same connections as Derby favorite Nyquist, was racing in Southern California for much of her career and subsequently was defeated five times by champion Songbird.  As a two-year-old, she made five starts, winning only one - a maiden at a mile on the turf - but finishing second in the Chandelier and third in the Del Mar Debutante. 

 

Land Over Sea is by record-setting Wood Memorial winner Bellamy Road, who has seen only moderate success as a sire.  His highest earning foal to date is upset Wood winner Toby's Corner, who defeated Uncle Mo in a shocker in 2011.  Her Pulpit dam, Belle Watling, has also produced the grade two placed War Story and $200,000 earner Draw Two.  Second dam Polly Adler, by Housebuster, got stakes winner and producer Yoursmineours and is a half sister to 1987 Champion Two-Year-Old Filly Epitome (who produced $2 million E Dubai by Pulpit).  It's not the prettiest pedigree at first glance, but the quality is certainly there.

 

As a three-year-old, Land Over Sea has blossomed.  Following her seventh place finish in her final start at two in the Breeders' Cup, she ran second twice to Songbird in the Las Virgenes and Santa Ysabel in two good efforts, leaving fellow Oaks contender Mokat well behind her in the latter.  In her most recent race, the Fair Grounds Oaks, she settled several lengths off the pace while three wide through the first turn.  She made a big move turning for home and was into second by the time they straightened for the drive.  She looked to hang a little early in the stretch but came on late down that long run for home to win going away by 4 1/2 lengths.

 

Land Over Sea has been looking sharp since her win at Fair Grounds and was a handful in her last breeze at Keeneland on the 29th.  Her rider wasn't asking her for much speed and kept her well off the rail, but her time of 1:01.80 was solid and comparable to a lot of the O'Neill works that I'm familiar with.  She has definitely matured physically in the last couple of months and looks to be in good flesh heading into the Oaks.  She galloped very aggressively on Wednesday and seemed to get over the track well.  This filly has a big stride that carries her over the ground with seemingly little effort, and I highly doubt we've seen the best of what she can offer in the afternoons.

 

The outside post for this filly is a bit daunting, but if she can settle and drop back going into the first turn, she shouldn't be too wide.  She will have to navigate some traffic, which is something she hasn't done too much of in her previous races, but she is one of the toughest, most seasoned fillies in the field, and her experience should serve her well.  She is certainly one of my favorites for the Oaks and will be a short price at post time.

 

Land Over Sea on track at Keeneland on April 9th (photo by Erin Sanderson)

 

The last filly through the post parade will be Winchell Thoroughbreds' Taxable.  The lightly raced filly is the third shot in the Oaks for trainer Steve Asmussen but will definitely be a longshot. 

 

Taxable has a very commercially appealing pedigree.  She is by previously mentioned leading sire Tapit and out of a royally bred half sister to Kentucky Oaks winner Summerly.  Her dam, Jackpot Joanie, could not duplicate her sister's success on the track, but the Giant's Causeway filly did break her maiden at Churchill Downs.  Besides Summerly, second dam Here I Go, by Mr. Prospector, did not produce much.  Her third dam is Shufflin in Seattle, by Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew and out of Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies runner-up Darby Shuffle, also a half sister to multiple stakes winner Beat All, who finished third in the 1999 Epsom Derby.

 

This leggy chestnut filly broke her maiden in impressive fashion back in June of last year at Churchill Downs, airing by seven lengths in a six furlong sprint.  She must have had some issues as a two-year-old since she didn't race again until Mach of this year, winning an optional claimer with ease at Oaklawn.  Her late pace rating from Brisnet in that race was actually the highest of any horse in the field at 105.  (Only one other in the race has run a triple digit late pace figure around two turns, and that is Weep No More.)  Bumped up into graded stakes for her third and most recent start, Taxable settled further off the pace than ever in her career before edging into contention under her own power on the turn.  She made a big run at the winner, her stablemate Terra Promessa, but was very green through the stretch, drifting in and out and jumping to her off lead late.  Her speed figures have been nothing to write home about (her highest is an 89 from Brisnet), but she is definitely improving and it can't hurt to have Mike Smith in the irons on the big day.

 

Without any videos of this filly training, I can't say for certain just how she looks coming into the race.  Her workout pattern in the last month has been similar to the rest of her short career, with her most recent breeze coming on May 2nd.  She went a half mile in :50 2/5 over a track labeled good in her final preparations. 

 

She's definitely going to be a big price at post time, but she doesn't have the worst shot of any filly I've ever seen in the Oaks.  Her connections must be hoping for her to be able to relax under Mike Smith and take back to get over to the inside before the first turn.  I doubt she's speedy enough to outrun fillies like Cathryn Sophia, Rachel's Valentina, and Paola Queen to get the rail on the front end.  The Kentucky Oaks is certainly a tall order for an improving though inexperienced filly, and my thoughts are that she isn't quite ready for this big of a stage.

 

On the also-eligible list is one of my favorite fillies from last year: Dothraki Queen.  The little bay filly comes from the barn of Kenny McPeek.  Following her first two starts, in which she broke her maiden by seven on the turf at Ellis Park and then gamely won the Pocahontas Stakes at Churchill Downs, she hasn't had the best of luck, but it is my belief that she is a classy filly deserving of a shot in the Oaks should someone scratch.

 



Her pedigree, in my opinion, is as pretty as a picture, but it seems as though it would point more toward turf.  (She defies it; her best speed figures have all come on the dirt.)  She is by Pure Prize, a graded stakes winning son of Storm Cat whose foals seem to favor turf a bit, though he has plenty of stakes winners on the dirt.  His best daughter was another of my favorites, the multiple grade one winner Pure Clan who captured the American Oaks and Flower Bowl Invitationals and finished second in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf and third in the Kentucky Oaks.  Dothraki Queen is out of the winning Saint Ballado (love!) mare Sharaiji Blossom, a half sister to one of Hong Kong's great milers, Electronic Unicorn, as well as Kentucky Oaks winner Blushing K.D. and Canadian champion Ambitious Cat.  Second dam Lilac Garden is a daughter of Roberto and third dam Balletomane is by Nijinsky and a half sister to record setting grade one winner Group Plan.

 

The last few races for Dothraki Queen have been a bit rough.  She was almost a pinball at the start of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies but closed well to finish third at 25-1, only a length and a quarter behind Rachel's Valentina.  She was extremely wide throughout the sloppy Golden Rod, won by Carina Mia.  Her only start this year came on the turf in the Appalachian Stakes, where she ran poorly behind Catch a Glimpse after again being bothered at the start and traveling wide. 

 

This is a very nice filly and I have faith in her moving forward.  If by some miracle she manages to draw into the race, I think she gets a good closing trip from the rear of the field with Gary Stevens in the irons. 

 

Dothraki Queen after her second place finish in the Alcibiades (photo by Erin Sanderson)

 

Ultimately, it seems that this year's Kentucky Oaks will come down to how fast they go early and how far some of these fillies actually want to run.  At least a reasonable pace could set this one up for Weep No More, who has shown us no hesitation making her way through traffic in the past and should easily get a rail trip as she drops back in the early going, or Land Over Sea, who can also rate very well and come home strong.  Rachel's Valentina will almost certainly be in the mix late with Cathryn Sophia doing her best to hang around until the wire.  I'm a little biased toward Go Maggie Go and Weep No More, so it makes it very difficult for me to see the downsides to both (tremendous inexperience and deep closing style, respectively).  My top picks are probably Rachel's Valentina and Land Over Sea, though with a potential fast pace, I very much like Weep No More to at least get a piece of it.  I would have to take Mokat and Go Maggie Go as my longshot picks.

 

No matter how much I analyze the past performances on paper and go back and watch the races, look at pedigrees, and see training videos, this field just leaves my head spinning.  It's a pretty evenly matched bunch, with a few up and comers that have loads of question marks and a top filly who I don't think can get two turns with the absolute best of them.  I know who I will be rooting for, but who will you be betting on?

The 2016 Kentucky Oaks Field (Part 2 of 3)

Welcome back for the second of three parts of a series profiling the 2016 Kentucky Oaks contenders.  Last time, we took a look at the fillies filling post positions one through five, ending with Dream Dance.  The second third of the field has some intriguing up and comers that will be big prices at post time.

Breaking from post six is Mokat, from the West Coast stable of Richard Baltas.  Her main claim to fame is running second behind the incomparable Songbird in the Santa Anita Oaks and third behind that rival and Land Over Sea in the Santa Ysabel earlier in the year. 

Mokat's pedigree leans a bit toward sprint and mile speed, yet her best race to date has come around two turns.  By the very hot sire Uncle Mo, who will be represented by several starters on Friday and Saturday, including Kentucky Derby favorite and undefeated champion Nyquist, she has the potential to be every bit as versatile as some of his other foals.  She is out of the unraced Flashy Frolic, a daughter of stakes winning Exclusive Native son Premiership.  Premiership earned over $200,000 in the 1980s, racing primarily in sprint races.  Flashy Frolic is a half sister to multiple graded stakes winner Smok'n Frolic, winner of stakes events from 5 to 9 furlongs while earning over $1.5 million.  The latter produced Hunter's Bay (by Ghostzapper), winner of multiple graded events in Canada up to 10 furlongs.  Third dam Cherokee Frolic won numerous stakes events, including the Test Stakes at Saratoga in 1981, and is the second dam of millionaire handicap horse Super Frolic.  This female family is definitely live and consistently churning out classy blacktype earners, making a filly like Mokat, who appears to be coming into her own, even more interesting. 

Mokat's road to the Oaks has been a little different from some of the others.  She broke her maiden at a mile on the turf by 5 1/2 lengths at Del Mar before running a solid second in the Jimmy Durante Stakes in November.  She faded to fourth after leading through strong fractions in an optional claimer in her three-year-old debut at a flat mile on the main track at Santa Anita, then again led and faded at a mile on the turf in February.  Her first main track stakes start was her strongest to date in the Santa Ysabel, where she dropped back to seventh and made one run to finish third, more than 7 lengths behind Songbird.  Without that champion filly, Mokat would have been the winner of the Santa Anita Oaks but she was no match for her.  She kicked on home very well, however, after once more laying several lengths off the pace and did her best running late.  It was a solid effort and she looks to move forward, despite her previous best Brisnet numbers being well below some of the others in the field. 

This filly has been training forwardly in the mornings, and she looks like she's matured very well this season.  She gets over the track at Churchill Downs almost effortlessly, despite not having a timed work over it.  In her last work on the 26th at Santa Anita, she fired a bullet in 1:13 4/5 for six panels. 

This is a filly moving forward, and while I don't think she will win the big race, she has a live shot to hit the board.  She has been improving in the afternoons and looking strong in the mornings and despite never finding the wire first in a stakes event, she is definitely one to take a look at. 

The other Uncle Mo filly in the race will break right beside Mokat from the seven.  Hailing from the illustrious barn of Todd Pletcher, Mo d'Amour exits New York with three wins, including a stakes victory, to her name.  She gets the services of Joel Rosario for the first time in her career, and that jockey and trainer combination has always been dangerous. 

 

Mokat at Del Mar as a two-year-old (photo by Erin Sanderson)

 

Also by Uncle Mo, Mo d'Amour has a female family full of European influences beyond the second generation.  Her dam is the unraced Scat Daddy mare, Neverthesame, who was actually a RNA at $47,000 in 2012 in foal with Mo d'Amour at Keeneland November.  Her sire, the late multiple grade one winner Scat Daddy, always seemed to get good young horses, including one of last year's Kentucky Derby horses, El Kabeir.  Second dam Salut D'Amour is an Irish-bred stakes winning sprinter by Danehill Dancer and out of a daughter of Sadler's Wells.  Her dam line contains primarily sprint and mile influences, yet her best speed figures have come around two turns. 

Mo d'Amour has won twice in four starts this year with two third place finishes.  She got her stakes qualifications in the Busher at Aqueduct on the inner track, also earning her best late pace number in winning by two lengths.  In that race, she got an ideal trip along the rail, tracking a modest pace just inside of the favorite, Katniss the Victor.  She looked to hang a little as the top three made their moves rounding the turn, but she picked it up while swinging to the outside and ground her way to victory, finishing very well late.  In her most recent start, she was demolished for the second time in her career by Lewis Bay in the muddy Gazelle Stakes.  (She had previously run into that one in the Demoiselle, where she finished an uninspiring seventh.)  Battling for the lead early outside the pacesetter, Mo d'Amour was caught between horses turning for home as Lewis Bay ranged up to the outside.  She found herself flat-footed through the stretch and was absolutely no match for the winner or Royal Obsession, who finished second. 

This looks like a bit of dainty filly from the photos I've seen, and she even seems to tiptoe as she hits the ground in the videos I've seen of her training.  She had a very good breeze on the 28th, going four panels in :48.20, 7th fastest of 22 at the distance.  

Mo d'Amour comes from the same connections that brought us Princess of Sylmar a few years ago and has followed a similar road: winning the Busher and finishing on the board in the Gazelle.  That memorable filly won the Oaks at 38-1.  According to an article on the Bloodhorse, the decision was made to send Mo d'Amour to the Oaks after a couple of strong workouts following the Gazelle.  Pletcher usually doesn't bring three-year-olds to Churchill Downs that don't have some serious potential, but this filly doesn't look to be in anywhere near the same league as Princess of Sylmar, who won four of six, including two stakes races, going into the Oaks.  Of course, hindsight is twenty-twenty, and back then we had no idea how good the Princess actually was.  Anything could happen, but I would personally look elsewhere. 

Another of Lewis Bay's defeated rivals, and Steve Asmussen's second of three Oaks hopefuls, is Royal Obsession.  The big, gray daughter of Tapit has shown potential since she was a weanling, when she sold for $550,000 at the Keeneland November sale.  As a yearling, she went for $1 million at Fasig Tipton in August, then sold again just last November for $1.5 million to Stonestreet Stables. 

Royal Obsession has a blue-blooded pedigree.  Her sire, Tapit, is one of the premier stallions in North America and has been the leading sire of the last two years, commanding a stud fee of $300,000.  He gets very good fillies, including champions Untapable and Stardom Bound, and grade one winners Tapitsfly, Joyful Victory, Careless Jewel, and Zazu.  Her dam, Rote, is a winning daughter of Tiznow out of the Storm Cat mare Song to Remember.  Song to Remember also produced the grade one winner Magnificent Song, as well as Mindful Music, dam of Venezuelan champion The Mindfulangel.  Third dam, Wedding Reception, is a daughter of Round Table and out of a half sister to Mr. Leader. 

Royal Obsession won her first two starts before making her stakes debut in the Rachel Alexandra at Fair Grounds, won by Venus Valentine.  She ran with that one early on and actually made her move before Venus Valentine, rolling up on the far outside before hanging through the middle of the stretch.  She finished on well to get fourth, beaten only 1 3/4 lengths for the win.  She earned her best speed figure in the Gazelle, running a length and a half behind a geared down Lewis Bay.  She was rank early after getting bumped near the start and raced in behind horses down the back straight.  She swung out turning for home but was simply outrun by Lewis Bay. 

Royal Obsession has been training solidly at Churchill Downs since her run in the Gazelle Stakes.  Her breeze on April 25th was very good, going five in 1:00 flat, second fastest of 34 that day.  She had another easy half mile breeze on May 2nd in :50 2/5 in her final preparation for the race.  Having not seen any video of her training, I can only assume that she is training well approaching the race and looking to improve in the Oaks, based on comments by her connections in video and print. 

This is a big, strong filly, as many Tapits are, and she appears to need a little time to get rolling, which will probably not serve her well on Oaks day.  There are quite a few fillies with a similar running style that will likely cause some traffic turning for home, and if Florent Geroux can't give this one a good, clean trip that doesn't carry her very wide, she probably has no shot.  Anything can happen, though, and she has certainly moved forward in each of her starts, so she could be a reasonable longshot to keep an eye on tomorrow. 

Another longshot will follow Royal Obsession in the post parade: Paola Queen.  The Flatter daughter comes from the barn of Gustavo Delgado, and has raced almost solely at Gulfstream Park throughout her career.  She owns just one win in a maiden in five starts. 

Paola Queen has a more blue collar pedigree than most of the fillies in the race.  She is by the A.P. Indy son Flatter who has only recently risen in the ranks of Kentucky stallions, with horses such as $3.5 million earner Flat Out and one of last year's  early Derby favorites, Upstart, making noise on the track in the last few years.  Her dam is the multiple stakes winning sprinter Kadira, a daughter of the somewhat successful sire Kafwain.  Second dam, Raw Gold by Rahy, was a multiple graded stakes winner in the mid 1990s and a half sister to grade one winner Point Ashley. 

The dark bay filly broke her maiden sprinting on Valentine's Day, setting the pace and turning back a strong challenge late to win by a length.  She made her very next start in the Gulfstream Park Oaks where she faced fellow Oaks starter Go Maggie Go.  It takes a pretty nice horse to go straight from a maiden sprint into a two turn graded event and have any kind of success, and that is exactly what the top two finishers in that race did.  Paola Queen jumped out to an early lead through pretty quick fractions over a tiring track before being passed by both Go Maggie Go and Off the Tracks.  She persevered gamely through the stretch and actually re-rallied a bit to take back second by a half length over the favorite and 6 lengths clear of fourth.   

This is another filly that has not put up very impressive numbers, but she looks to be training well and performed admirably in her step into graded stakes company.  Her six furlong breeze on the 28th in 1:13 3/5 was smooth and professional, and she looks like a completely different filly (at least in these videos) than she was in the Gulfstream Park Oaks.  She improved in leaps and bounds from her maiden win, in my opinion, and is drawn inside of most of the serious speed.  She loses Javier Castellano to Rachel's Valentina, but gets Emisael Jaramillo, one of Florida's top jockeys who is winning on 20% of his mounts this year.  Paola Queen will definitely be part of the early pace, but it's up in the air as to whether she will be around in the end.  She is gritty and hard trying, and that inherent trait could keep her going further than another filly with identical physical traits.  I would expect her to be around at the end only if the pace isn't too fast.

The final horse in the second third of the post parade is Venus Valentine, yet another granddaughter of A.P. Indy from the barn of Tom Amoss.  She broke through in graded company in February after three straight off the board finishes (all three on a different surface) as a 74-1 longshot in the Rachel Alexandra at Fair Grounds.   

Venus Valentine is a daughter of Flatter's full brother, Congrats, sire of multiple grade one winner Turbulent Descent and one of the early Oaks favorites Polar River.  She is out of the multiple stakes winning sprinter Valentine Fever, a daughter of Stormin Fever.  Valentine Fever is the most accomplished foal from her winning Gilded Time dam, Betshe Hath a Way.  If you look back far enough, Venus Valentine's fifth dam is Quillopoly, the granddam of No Class, one of the greatest blue hens of the later 20th century.   

The dark chestnut Congrats filly broke her maiden at first asking at Ellis Park before finishing fourth in the Arlington Washington Lassie and then fifth and fourth in a pair of allowance optional claimers.  After exiting that last effort at a mile on the turf, she headed for the Rachel Alexandra.  Breaking flat footed and getting bumped from post three, she dropped as much as 14 lengths off a reasonably swift pace.  She didn't even enter the screen until they turned for home, then charged up the rail for a shocking win.  Garnering more respect in the Fair Grounds Oaks, she went off at 13-1.  Once again she broke last, but only managed to pace tiring rivals to finish fifth.  The pace was a bit slower in the Fair Grounds Oaks, and they came home significantly faster; the final 5/16 in the Fair Grounds Oaks was run in :32.04, as opposed to the :33.33 of the Rachel Alexandra. 

Venus Valentine has been training nicely in the mornings and seems as though she's come out of her last race with no ill effects.  She had a very fast breeze on April 20th, going six panels in a bullet 1:11 4/5.  Her final work was a bit slower: four furlongs in :49 2/5.  Her works at Churchill Downs are actually stronger than what she showed down at the Fair Grounds.   

This filly is deservedly a longshot, with slow speed figures and an inconsistent race record.  She could move forward, however, with the addition of blinkers that will, hopefully for her connections, probably sharpen her up in the early stages.  It's always a gamble shaking up a horse's equipment right before a big race, but with her complete lack of early speed, she looks like the type that could use blinkers.  A strong pace in the Oaks will move her up at the wire, but there are plenty of classy speed and stalker types that she will have to get by. 

Needless to say, the winner of the lilies is probably not coming out of this middle third of the field.  There are a couple of intriguing longshots that could pick up a piece, especially Mokat and Royal Obsession.  The gritty little Paola Queen could make a bid for hitting the super, as well, if only on heart.