2017 Kentucky Derby Post Parade (Part 2)

Leading off the second half of the field is the intriguing, lightly raced Battle of Midway.  He will be bucking history in his attempt to win the Kentucky Derby, trying to become only the second horse after Apollo in 1882 to do so without having raced at two.

The Jerry Hollendorfer trainee won his debut in January by open lengths in a six furlong maiden, followed by a sound defeat by Iliad in the San Vicente Stakes (G2).  He tried two turns next out in an optional claimer, winning by a neck over the nice colt Reach the World and Kentucky Oaks runner Vexatious.  This is a fast horse, no doubt, as evidenced by his early pace numbers in the Santa Anita Derby (G1).  Over a track that wasn't particularly fast that day, he clicked off a :22 3/5 and :46 2/5 pace before slowing dramatically.  Luckily for him, everyone seemed tired and crawling home.  He fought on gamely for a second place finish behind the winner, Gormley, defeating Derby also-eligible Royal Mo.  Visually, that race was the single most baffling of all of the Kentucky Derby preps, with a freakishly slow final time of 1:51.16 and its cavalry charge of a finish with five horses that seemed to want nothing to do with serious running in the final eighth of a mile.  The track seemed speed biased that day, as well, which may have helped him significantly. 

In terms of pedigree, Battle of Midway could swing one way or another: he could be a miler, or, less likely, a true router.  His sire, Smart Strike, surely gets his fair share of classic types, including his Hall of Fame son Curlin.  His dam's side, however, is a bit more suspect.  He is out of the very nice Rigoletta, a graded stakes winner who was injured in her second start at three and whose potential was untapped.  Her sire, Concerto, was a very nice two-turn horse, setting a stakes record in the Frederico Tesio Stakes at 9 furlongs and winning stakes events up to 10.  He did sire the brilliant Wood Memorial (G1) winner Bellamy Road, however his influence has tended more toward milers who, given the right circumstances, could carry their speed.  Rigoletta is out of a daughter of Montbrook named Almost Aprom Queen, a very fast horse who also sired champion sprinter Big Drama. Almost Aprom Queen is a half sister to the multiple stakes winning sprinters Sea of Green and Lady Gin. 

This colt has been working quickly out at Santa Anita since his last start, getting nice, long breezes and gallop outs in.  His gallops at Churchill haven't been the best I've seen, but they certainly haven't been the worst, either.  He has good energy and appears to be getting over the track well with his quick, snappy stride.  I just don't feel that he is suited for the Kentucky Derby, though he will likely be a big part of the pace scenario early on.

Calumet Farms has two horses who seem to have really blossomed at Churchill Downs: Hence and Sonneteer.  Though a maiden in ten starts to date, Sonneteer has been another of the best training horses underneath the Twin Spires in the days leading up to Derby Day.

Trained by Keith Desormeaux of Exaggerator and Texas Red fame, Sonneteer has been a deep closer in every one of his starts, sometimes running very fast late pace numbers that suggest he might appreciate longer distances.  His final race as a two-year-old in a one mile maiden, in which he finished a length and a quarter behind Royal Mo, was probably his best start as a juvenile, while this season he has finished a fast-closing second in the Rebel Stakes (G2) and a wide, but close, fourth in the Arkansas Derby (G1).  His late pace number in the latter was particularly good (109), but he has not run any standout final speed figures, either.  His numbers have been steadily improving this season and he could benefit should there be a pace meltdown.

Sonneteer is a son of Midnight Lute, who, like Speightstown, was a brilliant champion sprinter on the track that can sire horses who can go two turns, including Queen's Plate winner Midnight Aria and Los Alamitos Derby (G3) winner Gimme Da Lute.  Sonneteer is out of a daughter of the fast sprinter type Half Ours (who was also graded placed going two turns) and the grade one winning sprinter/miler Classy Mirage.  There is a tremendous amount of class in this female family, however it is mostly of the speedy type.  Fourth dam, Gray Mirage, is a half sister to the Hall of Fame filly Dark Mirage.  This is simply not a pedigree that I would expect to go 10 furlongs, unless he throws back to his grandsire Real Quiet and some fifth-generation influences.  

In training, Sonneteer has struck me as a bright, happy, and energetic colt.  He has inherited a lot of the look of his sire, Midnight Lute, and puts me in mind somewhat of Mylute, a closing fifth in the Kentucky Derby and third in the Preakness in 2013.  From what I can tell, he looks like a horse that has the stride and action to excel in the slop, as well, which is not something I can say for many of the other contenders besides Gunnevera and perhaps one or two others.  His final breeze on May 1 (4 furlongs in :47 flat) looked spectacular.  If you're going to bring a maiden to the first Saturday in May, you might as well bring one who looks like a potential superstar in the making.

Breaking from lucky no. 13 will be J Boys Echo.  Dale Romans brings this highly regarded colt into the race with two wins from six starts and some buzz on the backstretch at Churchill.

J Boys Echo is one of the handful of starters to have raced at Churchill, finishing second in his debut outing in October.  He blew away a maiden field at Keeneland next out, then followed that up with a couple of unlucky trips in the Delta Downs Jackpot (G3) and Withers Stakes (G3).  He avenged his Withers defeat handily in the Gotham Stakes (G3), also over the Aqueduct inner track, defeating Withers winner El Areeb by 11 lengths.  He once again was handed a rough trip in the loaded Blue Grass Stakes (G1), getting knocked around at the start and finishing well behind the winner, Irap.  It's difficult to get a real read on this horse from his races.  He's had some rough trips (which he could very well see again in the Derby) that could give him excuses for some of his losses, and he's never run a particularly bad race, but his one truly good run was over the quirky inner track at Aqueduct and may or may not be an aberration.  He certainly has a nice, sit-back-and-pounce running style, with enough early speed to not leave him too much to do in the lane that will serve him well on Saturday.

In his pedigree, J Boys Echo has a balance of speed and stamina.  He is by Mineshaft, a son of A.P. Indy who won four grade one races, including the 10 furlong Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) and Suburban Handicap (G1), and was named Horse of the Year in 2003.  His dam is the graded stakes winner Letgomyecho, who did her best running in sprints, by Kentucky Derby runner-up Menifee.  There is plenty of black type in his tail female family, though much of it is of the sprint or mile variety.  His dam does double up on the Argentinian Triple Crown winner Tatan, a direct ancestor of Menifee and second dam, Echo Echo Echo and a source of stamina. 

J Boys Echo certainly puts one in mind of his sire, Mineshaft, and as any of Dale Romans's horses is looking in fine flesh and fit entering Saturday's race.  I don't enjoy watching this horse gallop, but when he levels out in his breezes and races, he has a long, low, powerful action that really gets the job done.  He was asked to gallop out around the turn and into the backstretch, then allowed to essentially pull himself up in his final breeze, and it took quite some time for him to slow down.  Honestly, the more I watch this horse, the more I like him and find excuses for his poor performances.  He still has a lot to prove, however, and I can't get past how awful his name sounds rolling off the tongue.

Last season, I picked a horse to win the Claiborne Breeders' Futurity (G1) and then the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), and he did both.  Classic Empire was well deserving of his championship last season and has already earned over $2 million before even entering the Kentucky Derby.

There are only a couple of blemishes on the Mark Casse trainee's record, and that is his third place finish in the Holy Bull Stakes (G2), won by Irish War Cry, which he exited with a foot abscess.  Last season, he was also my pick in the Hopeful Stakes (G1), however he displayed his flightiness at the start and dumped his rider within the first couple of strides.  Otherwise, he has done nothing but win.  He has two victories at Churchill Downs in his first two outs, one over a sloppy track and the other in the Bashford Manor Stakes (G3), wins in the Breeders' Futurity and Breeders' Cup, and is entering Saturday off a solid win in the Arkansas Derby.  Following his setback in February, missing training time, and refusing to work as scheduled, he still ran his second best career race in Arkansas in his first start at 9 furlongs.  He was in tight in the early stages and buried in traffic for much of the race.  Once he got rolling while very wide on the turn, it took only a few taps on the shoulder for him to mow down the gritty leader, Conquest Mo Money.  From the way Leparoux rode him, he knew he had the best horse and could have possibly won by more if he had wanted.  He left something in the tank for the real dance, however.

No one can sniff at the champ's pedigree.  He is by Pioneerof the Nile, sire of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah and a Kentucky Derby runner-up in his own right, as well as a son of Kentucky Derby runner-up and Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Empire Maker.  Classic Empire's dam is a maiden daughter of Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) winner Cat Thief, himself third in the Kentucky Derby.  His dam's side is filled with black type, as well as Miswaki and Princequillo influences, and his fifth dam is the great blue hen mare Alanesian.  Ten furlongs will be no problem for this horse, and even an off track should not bother him. 

This horse is definitely hot blooded, as he has shown this season in his training.  Prior to the Arkansas Derby, he flat refused to work when he was scheduled to breeze.  He has been nicknamed "Racing's Bad Boy" due to his training antics.  Hopefully all of that energy doesn't express itself in a detrimental fashion on Derby Day, because the champ is a live contender.  He has been galloping beautifully and we already know he likes Churchill Downs.  If he doesn't have a meltdown in the paddock or post parade, he is one to watch out for, especially with his tactical speed from an outside position.

My battle cry all year has been, "Release the McCraken!"  And I'm not about to pull my support from this horse following his first career defeat.  This horse is fast, versatile, and has a very savvy trainer in Ian Wilkes who knows how to get a horse peaking at just the right time and was assistant to Carl Nafzger, trainer of two Kentucky Derby winners (Street Sense in 2007 and Unbridled in 1990).

McCraken is already proven at Churchill Downs, having won all three of his first starts over the surface, including the Street Sense and the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2).  This season, he opened the year with a track record performance in the Sam F. Davis, defeating Tapwrit and State of Honor in handy fashion, then missed training time and a scheduled start in the Tampa Bay Derby (won by Tapwrit, in another new track record) due to what was called a minor ankle injury.  He probably needed the race in Irap's Blue Grass, in which he came up a bit empty in the lane, but still managed to finish third, ahead of several other Kentucky Derby starters.

McCraken's pedigree veritably shouts classic horse.  His sire, Ghostzapper, was brilliant at any distance they tried him at, winning major graded stakes from 6 1/2 to 10 furlongs, including a stakes record performance in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1).  To date, he has sired foals who can stay up to a mile and a half.  McCraken's dam, Ivory Empress, was stakes placed in sprints, but she is sired by Super Derby (G1) winner and Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) runner-up Seeking the Gold, one of the great sires of his time who got such horses as Dubai World Cup (G1) winner Dubai Millennium, international multiple group one winner Seeking the Pearl, and the beloved champion Heavenly Prize.  Ivory Empress is a half sister to Mea Domina, winner of the 2005 Gamely Breeders' Cup Handicap (G1).  Second dam, Madame Pandit, is a daughter of Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) winner Wild Again, and third dam, Tuesday Evening was sired by the stamina influence Nodouble.

Since the Blue Grass, McCraken has trained like a house on fire.  He has put together two stellar five furlong moves in a row at Churchill in the two weeks leading up to the race, and he looked like quite a handful to pull up in his last work.  He is all business in the mornings, and you have to love his professionalism.  He has a smooth stride and economy of action that strongly remind me of his sire, Ghostzapper, who could run on anything at any distance, and he even looks almost the same physically.  Everyone keep an eye on this colt, even from way out in post 15, because this may not be only my top pick for the Derby - there will be plenty of others backing him, as well.

McCraken will be breaking beside a familiar foe in Tapwrit, who holds the no. 16 post.  The handsome gray Pletcher trainee broke McCraken's track record in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) in his best career race and second start on the year, but was a disappointing fifth in the Blue Grass behind Irap, Practical Joke, McCraken and J Boys Echo.  He has shown promise and ability, however his form dropped off badly at Keeneland.  That could have been a symptom of the odd surface that day or his poor break, however he might be a little suspect following that performance.  He is also a stakes winner in the slop and can finish very strongly, so if he runs back to the form he was showing prior to the Blue Grass, he could be a threat.

Tapwrit is a son of champion sire Tapit, out of the Spinaway Stakes (G1) winner Appealing Zophie, herself a son of the fast Successful Appeal, and not just a sprinter.  She was also a graded winner around two turns.  His second dam, Zophie, is a daughter of Hawkster, a world record setter for 12 furlongs on the turf and broodmare sire of Preakness and Belmont winner Afleet Alex, among others.  Tapwrit's third dam is a daughter of Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew, out of a granddaughter of classic influence Prince John.  There is no reason to think that 10 furlongs is out of this horse's reach based on his pedigree, and with his running style and strong finishes, he should be in very good shape in that regard.

In the mornings, Tapwrit has been looking solid.  His last breeze in company with stablemate Patch (five panels in 1:00 1/5) was very good, even though he may have looked a touch unfocused at times.  When it came down to the stretch and gallop out, however, he moved in on Patch and stuck right with him with ease.  He covers a lot of ground in his gallops and is another with a long, low way of going that I like (though that may not be ideal for the sloppy mess that the Derby is likely to be).  If all signals are good with this horse, and he manages to return to form, he may be a threat to pick up a piece of it.

We're starting to get out into no man's land with post no. 17 and Irish War Cry, but if anyone can win from this far out, it might be the statuesque chestnut Graham Motion trainee.

Irish War Cry burst onto the Triple Crown scene in February with a powerful wire-to-wire victory over Gunnevera and Classic Empire in the Holy Bull Stakes (G2).  That race would seemingly set him up for another top notch performance in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2), however, he would press the pace early and tire badly, finishing a soundly beaten seventh, 21 lengths behind Gunnevera.  Graham Motion himself called the race a "real headscratcher," with the previously unbeaten colt having no excuse besides perhaps running back too quickly.  In his next start, the Wood Memorial (G1), he would have an extra week of rest and win easily by 3 1/2 lengths over Batallion Runner and Cloud Computing, running back to his Holy Bull form.

Based on pedigree, Irish War Cry shouldn't have a bit of trouble staying the mile and a quarter.  He is a son of the Hall of Fame Curlin, winner of the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), Dubai World Cup (G1), etc. and sire of Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Palace Malice, Preakness Stakes (G1) winner Exaggerator, Travers Stakes (G1) winner Keen Ice, and champion filly Stellar Wind, among others.  He is out of Irish Sovereign, a daughter of the good Danzig sire Polish Numbers and Beau Genius dam Irish Genius.  His third dam, Irish Trip, was a British-bred daughter of Arc winner Saint Crespin and granddaughter of Irish Derby winner Tambourine.

The New Jersey champion has been training well at Churchill Downs, though he doesn't look quite as comfortable in his gallops as some others.  He's been doing long breezes over at Fair Hill and is looking a lot like another Graham Motion Derby horse, Animal Kingdom, who memorably won the race in 2011.  I am a fan of this horse, though I don't like what I see from him at Churchill as much as some others.  I think he could still be a threat, and Motion will have him primed for a big effort, assuming he doesn't throw in a clunker like he did two starts back.

Another horse who has been looking extremely good at Churchill, but is hung out wide, is the no. 18, Gormley.  He has largely been forgotten in the pre-race chatter, despite being the winner of the Santa Anita Derby (G1) last time out.

At two, Gormley won his first two, including an impressive victory in the Frontrunner (G1) before being soundly beaten by Classic Empire in the Breeders' Cup.  This year, he won a hard fought victory in the Sham Stakes (G3) over American Anthem, then was off for two months before being thrashed by Mastery in the San Felipe (G2).  The Santa Anita Derby, as mentioned previously, was boggling in terms of its slow final time and crawling finish.  Gormley looked like he closed well, but the late pace numbers really tell the story: no one was closing well at all.  The one mile Sham may have been as far as he wanted to go, based on his race performances and early vs late pace numbers.

Gormley is a son of Malibu Moon, himself by A.P. Indy, who already has a Kentucky Derby winner in 2013 victor Orb.  His dam is the stakes-winning turf filly Race to Urga, a daughter of multiple group stakes winner and turf influence Bernstein.  The turf trend continues down his female line, with plenty of stamina thrown in, with Kingmambo, Strawberry Road, and Vaguely Noble.  Second dam, Miss Mambo, was a stakes winner on the turf and a granddaughter of the great Arlington Million winning filly Estrapade.  There is plenty of class and black type in Gormley's extended female family, and plenty of stamina as well, but thus far he hasn't run to that stamina.

The John Shirreffs trainee looks as good as anyone on the track in the mornings right now.  He cruises along with his neck bowed, galloping well off the rail and demanding to do more.  He has a beautiful stride, though it may be more suited for turf as his dam's side of the family would suggest, and doesn't appear uncomfortable with the Churchill surface.  Shirreffs has been giving him long works out at Santa Anita prior to shipping east, and he should be plenty fit.  However, I do believe he is going to have trouble from the far outside post with so many horses inside of him who are going to want a similar early position. 

In post no. 19 is Practical Joke, Chad Brown's only starter this year in Churchill's main event.  This seemingly talented colt has been largely overlooked and will likely go off at a big price, especially from his far outside post position.

Practical Joke was undefeated in his first three starts at two, breaking his maiden by five at Saratoga before reeling off victories in the Hopeful and Champagne Stakes (both G1) before finishing almost eight lengths behind Classic Empire in the Juvenile.  He is one of several horses in the field making his third start off a layoff and eligible to improve.  He ran a better race last out in the Blue Grass Stakes (G2) behind Irap than he did finishing second to Gunnevera in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and could move forward even more from that effort.  He has a stalk-and-pounce running style that is usually very beneficial in the Kentucky Derby, however that strategy will be difficult to use to its full effectiveness from nearly the far outside.

Thus far, Practical Joke has not won beyond a mile, and his genetics may be to blame.  He is a son of the fast CashCall Futurity (G1) winner Into Mischief, whose foals tend to excel up to a mile and can sometimes stretch their speed to nine panels, but out of a daughter of classic sire Distorted Humor.  His second dam, Gilded Halo (Gilded Time), is bred along the same lines as multiple graded stakes winning handicap horse Moment of Hope, a son of Timeless Moment (Gilded Time's sire) and out of Careless Moment (Gilded Halo's second dam).  The majority of this pedigree is full of milers who could stretch their speed up to nine furlongs on a good day, except for his third dam's sire, Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Sunny's Halo.

Chad Brown does have this horse looking amazing in the mornings.  He is strong and alert in his gallops, ears pricked and fairly gliding over the ground, and he looks as though he always wants to do a little more.  He has breezed in company on April 28 in blinkers and will likely race with those for the first time in the Derby.  (On a side note, the last horse I recall to run with first-time blinkers in the Derby was a colt named Palace Malice, who set a radioactive early pace and faded badly.)  That work with blinkers looked as solid as they come, he was nice and focused in the stretch and galloped out powerfully.  If it weren't for the terrible post position, I would have this horse at the top of my list of under-the-radar types.

Wrapping up the field will be the lightly raced, one-eyed wonder, Patch.  The handsome bay colt had his left eye removed as a two-year-old, but took it all in stride.

Besides Battle of Midway, he is the only other horse in the field to have not raced at two, and winning the Derby with that kind of weight on his shoulders would be quite a feat.  In fact, he's only run three times in his career and has only one graded stakes attempt on his resume.  He broke his maiden in his first try going two turns in his second start in February, winning at a mile at Gulfstream with a solid BrisNet speed figure.  He followed that up with a very good second to Girvin in the Louisiana Derby (G2).  He had a bit of a rough start, but was running on very well late to be well clear of Local Hero and Lookin At Lee.  The Kentucky Derby, it should be noted, will be the first time he's had the same jockey as he had in his previous start, as Tyler Gaffalione retains the mount.

This lovable underdog has been training well at Churchill Downs, with a solid breeze in company with Tapwrit, and looks to be in fine flesh.  He did not appear to appreciate the track drying out from some rain on May 1, however, and looked a bit awkward that day.  I wouldn't quite give him an A+ grade for his morning work, but he has looked good enough to think that he might handle the track reasonably well if it's not too slick.

Patch has a world of potential based on his limited race record and his pedigree.  He is by Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Union Rags, one of last season's top freshman sires, second only to Dialed In.  He is out of Windyindy, a royally bred daughter of the great A.P. Indy (has anyone else noticed how much A.P. Indy blood is in this Derby field?) out of Unbridled Wind, a stakes-winning full sister to five-time grade one winner and champion Banshee Breeze.  When it comes to this horse, he gives me such a warm, fuzzy feeling inside that it's difficult for me to objectively judge how well he may run in the Derby.  He's hung on the far outside with every other starter to his blind side, he has only had three starts and never raced at two, and is making on his second graded stakes attempt with a brilliant but inexperienced jockey who has never ridden in the Derby.  All of those signs say he's a toss, but if for nothing but pure sentiment's sake, I still like him.

What conclusions did I draw from my extensive (but unfortunately oft-interrupted) study of this year's Kentucky Derby starters?  As it has been most of the year, McCraken tops my list (well, Mastery did until he was injured in March).  Of the others, Classic Empire has never disappointed my faith in him without a good excuse, nor has Gunnevera.  I would say that, especially based on post position draws, those three lead my picks with Hence, Always Dreaming and Irish War Cry competing for the last two spots in my top five.  I would probably give the edge to Hence and Always Dreaming based on how well they have been training and their more advantageous post positions, though Irish War Cry is an extremely nice horse and perfectly capable of running a huge race. 

As usual, there will no doubt be some other, mostly forgotten, horse who comes in and messes up my top five (I have picked the top five to eight horses for the last several years, save one horse that always ruins the whole mess).  I can honestly say that that "spoiler" will more than likely come from the group of Irap, Tapwrit, Sonneteer (What?! Yes, I said it), J Boys Echo, and Lookin At Lee.  To be perfectly honest, this field is as wide open as it can possibly be, with Mother Nature's final wrench of all day rain thrown in for good measure.  Good luck figuring this one out, folks.

2017 Kentucky Derby Post Parade (Part 1)

Now that all the preps have been run, all the training completed, and post positions drawn, there is little left but to run the race.  The 2017 Road to the Kentucky Derby paints one of the most muddled pictures in recent memory, rife with inconsistency and injury.  The ups and downs of this year's Derby trail have been dramatic and downright baffling, from Classic Empire's physical setbacks and zany antics to the injury of the brilliant Mastery to a maiden named Irap blowing the Blue Grass Stakes wide open.  As if the racing gods have not thrown enough monkey wrenches into the mix, they've added one more: the forecast of three straight days of rain leading up to the big race.  There's little left to do but to make your picks and hope for the best, but if you're anything like me, your mind is still caught up in the whirlwind of all the crazy happenings of this season.

The post position draw didn't particularly help matters, as some of my long time favorites drew very wide and my "hunch horses" bookend the field in the 1 and 20 gates.  Some nice value horses did manage to get into favorable post positions, and Always Dreaming, the brilliant but inexperienced Florida Derby winner, could wind up in the best early position of all of them from post 5, assuming he doesn't come away from the gate with the same tightly wound aggression he has been displaying in his gallops and works.

Breaking from post no. 1 will be Lookin At Lee, a neat colt named for the head of the four-man partnership that owns him.  That partnership, L and N Racing, bought Lookin At Lee for $70,000 at Keeneland as a yearling a scant few months after starting their very first horse in a race and now find themselves in the Kentucky Derby.  I haven't seen video of this horse since April 24, but he looked to be getting over the Churchill surface effortlessly in his April 23 gallop.  He's never been much of a workhorse, so won't wow you with his breeze times, and it's not Asmussen's style to work them particularly fast, but I do like his way of going: long, low, and striding out beautifully in his gallop outs.

This is one horse that the inside post more than likely won't bother, either.  He drops so far out of it early on that he will have very little traffic to contend with rounding the clubhouse turn.  The trick here is to keep him from giving up too much ground in the opening stages of the race, hoping that he doesn't give himself too much to do in the stretch as he has in most of his previous races.  His last run in the Arkansas Derby, beaten only a length and a half by juvenile champion Classic Empire, was sneaky good.  He dove in toward the rail in the middle of the stretch, losing some momentum, then drifted back out under a hard left handed whip, but he was traveling every bit as well as, if not better than, Classic Empire in the final sixteenth. 

If any longshot horse has the pedigree for this race, it's Lookin At Lee.  His sire, Lookin At Lucky, probably should have won the Derby, but had a nightmare trip (also from the inside post).  He came back to win the Preakness and Haskell following a sixth place finish at Churchill, en route to his second Eclipse award.  His dam's side is loaded with black type and some nice two-turn influences, as well, including Langfuhr, 1987 Arkansas Derby winner and heavy Kentucky Derby favorite Demons Begone, and Belmont Stakes winning Horse of the Year Conquistador Cielo.

Lookin At Lee has plenty of upside: he will be getting the services of the savvy Corey Lanerie for the first time in his career in the Derby, he has been improving steadily all season as the distances get longer and has run monster late pace figures in his last two, and a solid ten furlong pedigree.  Of course, he also has plenty of question marks, as well.  His running style is not necessarily conducive to winning the Derby, although we've seen deep closers win on wet tracks in the last couple of decades, and he will be breaking from the dreaded inside post that has cursed many a talented horse, including his sire.  His speed figures don't quite match the best in the field, though it is my feeling that we haven't seen his best running yet.  This horse is one of my hunch horses and has been for the last month, so he's one I'll be keeping an eye on.

The overseas invader Thunder Snow did not draw well, either, and will be breaking from the second post position.  Historically, horses coming over after winning the UAE Derby (G2) have not done well on the first Saturday in May, but this colt just may be the most talented of the ones that I've seen in recent years.  Despite his obvious talent and class, I still feel as though this particular horse is much more suited to turf than he is to dirt. 

In his last two starts in Dubai, Thunder Snow has come home rather slowly and on wrong leads.  His win in the UAE Derby, while very game and defeating several other very talented three-year-olds, was not a pretty one.  The final three-sixteenths were pedestrian despite both colts on the front end being under a heavy drive.  Thunder Snow himself was green, and had something of the look of a drunken partygoer at one point, as he jumped to the outside, then back in, switching leads as he did so.  He managed a narrow victory on sheer class and guts.

With a pedigree like this Irish-bred's, one must always question the ability to race at a high class over the dirt.  By the multiple group one-winning Australian sprinter/miler Helmet and out of the winning Dubai Destination daughter Eastern Joy, he is bred to the hilt for turf racing.  He is a half brother to the ill-fated May Hill Stakes (G2) and UAE Oaks (G3) winner Ihtimal, as well as two other stakes winners, and his dam is a half sister to Prix de Diane (G1) winner West Wind.  Third dam, Morning Devotion, produced the Oaks (G1) and Irish Derby (G1) winning filly Balanchine and Jockey Club Stakes (G2) winner and Derby (G1) third-place finisher Romanov.  While there is plenty of stamina in his more extended tail female family, his more recent close relatives are much more suited to sprint and mile distances (he doesn't get much help from his sire, either), and there is a complete lack of dirt form.

Thunder Snow is truly a splendid-looking colt and seems to have taken all of the excitement at Churchill Downs well in stride.  However, he has the action of a true turf horse and that, coupled with his pedigree, make me believe that he is not going to be racing at his best on the dirt on Saturday.  While he might be right at home in the Guineas, he certainly does not seem suited to the Kentucky Derby.  His inside post position likely will not help him, either, especially since he is a horse who likes to stalk and pounce and seems to do have done his best running from the outside.

The 3 spot belongs to the handsome gray, Fast and Accurate.  The son of Hansen last won the Spiral Stakes at a hefty price, thrusting himself into the Kentucky Derby picture when he had previously been mostly unheard of.

The Mike Maker trainee has certainly been training well at Churchill Downs, firing a :59 3/5 bullet over the training track on April 15, followed up by another five furlong move in 1:00 1/5, also on the training course.  His final move before the Derby came on April 30, when he worked in company in 1:01 1/5.  He was under a firm hold early and looked nice and relaxed.  Everything about the work was as it should have been: smooth and easy.  He was allowed to stride out late in the work, then galloped out well ahead of his workmate with impressive energy.  He has a lovely way of going and seems to have taken well to the main track, despite his worst career performance being his only race on conventional dirt.

This colt has certainly blossomed in recent months, going from winning a maiden claimer in December at Turfway Park to a listed stake on the turf at Gulfstream to winning the Spiral and entering the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby.  He is, however, a speedy type, and will be joined on the front end by several others, while also having to use his speed to get good position from the inside early.  His speed figures are significantly lower than the top end of this field, though if Maker has any say, he will be ready to give his best effort on Derby day. 

The top side of his pedigree calls into question his distance capabilities as well: his sire, Hansen, was at his limit at nine furlongs, and his foals' average winning distance is about 6 1/2 furlongs.  His dam's side could go either way.  His dam is a half sister to talented sprinter Bwana Charlie, but that also means she is a half sister to his brother, Super Derby-winning My Pal Charlie.  Both by Indian Charlie, they were likely at their limit at nine furlongs.  Their other half sibling, Bwana Bull, by Holy Bull, was a quality three-year-old and more consistent two-turn horse, though his best races were at 1 1/16 miles.  Overall, if one puts any stock in dosage anymore, he does have a DI of 1.86, which would be considered a strong number for a horse going ten furlongs.

Generally, this horse is a longshot who is not helped one bit by his post position, with all of the other speed breaking outside of him.  He will have to contend with traffic, and it is not my belief that even a decent trip and his best career effort are enough to win on Saturday.

Untrapped will be breaking from post position 4 for trainer Steve Asmussen, but I feel that there isn't a lot of upside here.  He doesn't appear to be improving with each start as some others have, and is coming off his worst race of the year, finishing sixth in Classic Empire's Arkansas Derby (G1).

With speedier horses on either side of him, this second flight type of runner will probably at least get his favored position and, with luck, a tracking trip that won't leave him boxed in late.  He is capable of putting in a strong late run, as he did in the Risen Star (G2) behind Girvin, but he hasn't displayed much of that in his last two starts, running evenly in Malagacy's Rebel and backing up late in the Arkansas Derby.  One thing he does have in his favor is a win at Churchill Downs, where he broke his maiden in his second start in November.

It could be that Untrapped takes after his sire, Trappe Shot, and prefers the shorter distances.  While Trappe Shot did win the Long Branch and place in the Haskell around two turns at three, he got his graded victory and did his best career running at four in sprint races.  Untrapped's dam is by the great classic horse Giant's Causeway and out of a half sister group one winner Minardi, grade two winner and sire Tale of the Cat, and the dam of juvenile champion Johannesburg.  Other than Giant's Causeway, none of his immediate pedigree screams classic distances.

Untrapped is training well at Churchill Downs, with strong gallops and workmanlike breezes.  He has been a touch too aggressive in some of his gallops, and his connections are certainly hoping he won't be overly keyed up on race day.  He doesn't seem to get over the surface quite as effortlessly as his stablemate, Lookin At Lee, but all in all he has looked solid in the mornings.  Regardless, I would be fairly shocked if he pulled the upset off on Saturday.

The likely morning line favorite, Always Dreaming, will break from post 5.  He has plenty of tactical speed to put him into an advantageous position going into the first turn and a pedigree and way of going that make him seem as though he could run for days. 

The Todd Pletcher trainee took three tries to break his maiden soon after arriving with the Pletcher barn, and he's done nothing but win by open lengths since.  He took a massive jump up in class from an allowance optional claimer in March, which he won by four lengths with a monstrous late pace number, to the Florida Derby (G1), which he won by five, defeating State of Honor and the highly regarded Gunnevera, finishing just off the track record set by Arrogate.  The track was quick that day, but most of the dirt races were also won by closers, so it wasn't speed favoring.  His speed figures took an enormous jump forward from his last race, as well, going from a BrisNet number of 84 to a 102.  That might set him up for a bounce, or it could be that we're looking at a star in the making and we haven't seen the best out of him yet.

Always Dreaming is by Bodemeister, and few can forget that lightly-raced colt's attempt to take the Derby wire-to-wire, setting sizzling early fractions only to fall just short to the late drive of I'll Have Another.  He repeated that performance in the Preakness, also finishing second.  Always Dreaming is out of the stakes winning mare Above Perfection and is a half brother to the brilliant juvenile filly Hot Dixie Chick, winner of the 2009 Spinaway Stakes (G1).  Above Perfection is a daughter of the brilliantly fast In Excess, who could carry his speed on to ten furlongs to great effect.  His second dam is by Somethingfabulous, a Northern Dancer half brother to the great Secretariat, and out of a daughter of the talented handicap horse Terrang.  While his pedigree says eight to nine furlongs may be his limit, the way he strode out at the end of the Florida Derby and his gallop outs after his recent works say something different.

The one flaw in the plan, as it were, with this colt is how aggressive he has been in morning training.  Pletcher had to equip him with draw reins to offer more control and put a more experienced exercise rider on him to calm him down a bit during his gallops.  He is screaming for more to do, but the concern is that he will be so on the muscle come race day that he runs his race before he enters the gate, or suffers a meltdown in the early stages.  I did love the way he got down to business, lowering his head and striding out beautifully, in his last five furlong breeze, and he galloped out well into the backstretch with excellent energy. 

Always Dreaming is a horse who has the sky as his limit in potential.  With a  good trip, and assuming he doesn't cook himself early by being too keen, I can easily see this colt at least getting a piece of the prize, if not winning the whole thing.

The giant Mark Casse trainee, State of Honor, drew post 6.  Standing about 17hh, he is known as "Tiny" and "The Giraffe" around the barn and is the tallest horse in the field. 

State of Honor is one of the most experienced horses in the field with 10 starts.  It took him five tries to break his maiden, which he did on the Woodbine all weather, and he hasn't won in five starts since, though he has been second or third in all of them.  He just missed in the Mucho Macho Man at Gulfstream in January, ran a credible third behind McCraken and Tapwrit in the Sam F. Davis, then second behind Tapwrit again in the Tampa Bay Derby.  He seems to like being up close to the pace, as do many of the horses in here, and if he wants to be on the lead, he will have to work for it.  He improved from two to three, but has yet to take that big jump forward that one would hope for from a three-year-old entering the Derby.  It is possible that his light bulb moment will happen in the big race itself.

This Canadian-bred's pedigree leans toward the miler department, with his sire To Honor and Serve having done his best running at eight to nine furlongs, and his dam a daughter of the very fast Elusive Quality.  It is not impossible for Elusive Quality to get some classic types: his son Raven's Pass won the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) on the ProRide at Santa Anita, though most of his career was as a miler in Europe, and another son, Quality Road, was a big, rangy type that relished nine furlongs, though he never won a major race at ten.  Second dam Avie's Fancy won the Matchmaker Stakes (G2) at 9 1/2 furlongs and is the dam of Santa Catalina Stakes (G2) winner St. Averil.  Her sire, Lord Avie, was a Florida Derby winner and sire of the excellent turf stayer Cloudy's Knight, among others. 

The big horse has a lot of the look of his brilliantly fast sire (and even a bit of Quality Road) about him, and he has been getting over the track extremely well.  His gallops have looked excellent: he is smooth, alert, and responsive.  I like all of the things I am seeing from this horse, but he is still a longshot for a reason.  He's going to need to take a big step forward to win, besides finding the ability to last ten furlongs.

Poor Girvin.  Our no. 7 horse has done little wrong all year until the last couple of weeks, when he came up with a nasty quarter crack in his right front that forced him to miss some training time.

The Joe Sharp trainee is the only horse in the field to have won two straight major preps for the Derby, and despite being lightly raced has been highly regarded.  He is undefeated in three starts on the dirt, his only loss having come over the Fair Grounds turf in his first start of the year.  His win in the Louisiana Derby (G2) was one of the best final preps in the country.  He ran three to four wide throughout while several lengths off the pace, struck the lead and drew clear.  It was nearly a mirror of his Risen Star (G2) win, except in that one, he raced on the rail and came through horses to get to the front and draw off late, running a sizzling late speed number in the process.

Add to the missed training time and questions about his soundness the fact that Girvin's pedigree doesn't really even whisper a mile and a quarter, and you might have a problem supporting this horse.  His sire, Tale of Ekati, was best at a mile, and seems to get similar types in his foals, while his dam has already produced Cocked and Loaded, a horse that did win at 1 1/16 miles, but otherwise did his best running in sprints.  She is by Malibu Moon, sire of Kentucky Derby winner Orb, but her dam is by Yes It's True and out of Yes It's True's dam's half sister, giving her two crosses of the beloved sprinter Monique Rene.

Joe Sharp has done an incredible job of keeping Girvin in shape and he looks as good as he could possibly look physically going into Saturday.  He has trained solely at Keeneland up until yesterday, when he got his first gallop over the main track at Churchill.  He did need some help pulling up (though I'm not sure if that isn't his typical modus operandi), but did not look as comfortable on the Churchill dirt as I would have liked.  His bullet five furlong breeze at Keeneland that had his connections heaving a collective sigh of relief did look very good, but it could be possible that he is not ready to race on that foot for ten furlongs or he may simply not like Churchill.  Or, of course, I could be entirely off base in thinking that his gallop on Thursday was not particularly impressive and he could run back to the form that has him undefeated on the dirt despite all the checkmarks against him.

The real wise-guy horse come Saturday could be Calumet Farms' homebred Hence, breaking from post 8.  He has been generating a lot of buzz among handicappers, despite his long layoff since the Sunland Derby.

It took four tries for Hence to break his maiden and he didn't do it until January of this year.  He followed that up with a seventh place finish, well beaten by One Liner, in the Southwest Stakes (G3) in his first try in graded company.  He shipped to Sunland in March, however, and thrived, running by far the biggest race of his career.  He was far back off a rapid first half before closing five-wide and drawing away like a good horse should in the closing stages, finishing in 1:48 flat, one of the fastest final preps of any of the field.  His final eighth in :12 2/5 was nothing to sneeze at, either. 

Hence is a son of the very fast Street Boss, a son of Street Cry that was mostly a sprinter, but is now getting some very good two-turn horses, including Arkansas Derby (G1) winner and Kentucky Derby third-place finisher Danza and Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner Cathryn Sophia.  He is bred along similar lines as the latter: whereas Cathryn Sophia is out of a daughter of Mineshaft (who is by A.P. Indy and out of a Mr. Prospector mare), he is out of a daughter of A.P. Indy and a Mr. Prospector mare.  His second dam, Ballerina Princess, produced Pico Teneriffe, a multiple graded stakes winner in her own right who was also Canada's 2009 Broodmare of the Year after producing Canadian Horse of the Year Marchfield, also a son of A.P. Indy.  Ballerina Princess is also a full sister to the dam of grade one winning handicap horse Latin American.  There is no reason to think that Hence shouldn't stay the distance based on his pedigree, and judging by the way he ran at Sunland, his performance lends its own credentials.

Since the Sunland Park Derby, it appears to me (from a distance and through the lenses of video and still cameras) that Hence has filled out and matured quite a bit.  He is a fantastic looking red chestnut that has become one of my favorite horses to watch gallop over the last few days.  He has a big, smooth stride with little wasted motion.  His breezes have been nothing less than stellar, in my opinion, and he is easily in the top four or five in the field in terms of how he's been training at Churchill Downs.  I would keep him high on my list of horses to bet.

There was only one race this year (the Santa Anita Derby) that boggled the mind more than the Blue Grass Stakes (G2), won by the no. 9 horse, Irap.  Despite a minor setback and missing some training, the unbeaten Mccraken was the favorite, with the maiden Irap mostly disregarded.  When the race seemingly fell apart at the head of the stretch, it was Irap who picked up the pieces.

Despite being a maiden entering the Blue Grass, Irap already had quite a resume of graded stakes performances.  After failing to break his maiden in two starts on the turf, he was second in Mastery's Los Alamitos Futurity (G1).  After another maiden event over a sloppy track on New Year's Eve, in which he finished fourth, he reeled off two solid second place finishes to Royal Mo and Conquest Mo Money in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) and Mine That Bird Derby.  His win the Blue Grass made Hence's victory in the Sunland Park Derby (G3) look particularly good, as Irap finished fourth in that race.  The opening fractions in the Blue Grass were soft and the final eighth rather pedestrian, however, but that may be excusable since most of the dirt races that day were fairly slow.

Irap is a half brother to champion sprinter Speightstown, out of the stakes-winning Storm Cat daughter Silken Cat.  While Speightstown was a sprinter himself, there is probably some stamina to find in his pedigree, as he is getting versatile horses all over the spectrum, from brilliant sprinters like the late Rock Fall to Belmont Derby Invitational (G1) winner Force the Pass and Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) winner Haynesfield. Irap is also by two-time Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) winner Tiznow, sire of such horses as Dubai World Cup (G1) winner Well Armed, Travers Stakes (G1) winner Colonel John, and Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Da Tara.  Following a career best effort in his second start at 9 furlongs, along with plenty of classic types (or classic-siring types) in his immediate pedigree, there's no reason to think Irap shouldn't get the distance.

From a training standpoint, Doug O'Neill is following the same formula that won him last year's Kentucky Derby with his charge, Nyquist.  Unlike with Nyquist, he is largely flying under the radar this season, but has reunited with Reddam Racing and jockey Mario Gutierrez to bring another one into the Run for the Roses.  He may be one of the fittest horses in the race with those long, mile breezes and two-minute licks, and has looked eager and consistent in his gallops at Churchill.  He is another horse that has been training very, very well since his last prep, and with two Derby wins in the last five years, you know Doug O'Neill knows how to get his charge ready to fire for the race.  Do not discount this gritty longshot, especially from a nice middle post.

The first half of the field is rounded out by the experienced, consistent Gunnevera.  This colt has been on the board in 7 of his 9 starts, winning four of those, and is consistently flying late. 

Gunnevera was fast enough at two to win the Saratoga Special (G2) in his fourth start, defeating highly regarded two-year-olds Recruiting Ready and Tip Tap Tapizar.  After a disappointing run in Classic Empire's Breeders' Futurity (G1) at Keeneland, in which he was very wide, he blew the Delta Downs Jackpot (G3) wide open, winning by nearly six.  This season, he's finished second to Irish War Cry in the Holy Bull (G2), thrashed Practical Joke and Three Rules in the Fountain of Youth (G2) by more than five lengths, and finished a rapidly closing third in Always Dreaming's Florida Derby (G1).  The latter was probably a better race than it looked, as he lost a ton of ground early when Castellano took him back and ducked to the rail from a far outside post, and was closing his last five furlongs in a sizzling :58 4/5.  The winner was so far gone by that point that he had no chance of catching up, but he will have a more advantageous post this time around and likely a better pace scenario up front. 

Few horses in the field have a pedigree as well suited to classic distances as Gunnevera.  A son of Florida Derby (G1) winner Dialed In, himself a son of four-time grade one winner and Horse of the Year Mineshaft and out of a daughter of champion filly Eliza, Gunnevera has a female family littered with classic winners.  His dam, Unbridled Rage, died a few days after his birth, leaving him an orphan, but she probably bestowed a genetic gift of brilliance and stamina.  Sired by Kentucky Derby winner Unbridled, she was out of a daughter of Graustark, with further influences of classic winning The Minstrel and Epsom Derby winner Dante.

Some handicappers have said that this leggy, lightly built colt has not trained well since the Florida Derby.  His last breeze at Churchill Downs was pedestrian, however, it was exactly what his trainer, a legend in his native Venezuela, wanted.  Gunnevera seems to be a very relaxed, tractable sort, and hasn't been one to have crazy antics in the mornings.  I wouldn't mind exercise riding him, either: he doesn't seem to pull too much, settling in to a nice pace that his rider sets.  He gets over this track with his usual efficiency and has been showing his trainer everything he wants to see.  There is no reason, in my mind, to think that he won't be flying down the lane, especially if he gets a good trip and pace scenario.

The 2016 Kentucky Derby Post Parade (Part 2 of 2)

Here at the eleventh hour, this is mostly for fun.  And practice.  And I am certainly having fun.  Join me in meeting the second half of the Kentucky Derby field (plus one).

Breaking from post ten will be the Pleasantly Perfect gelding Whitmore, trained by the quietly savvy Ron Moquett.  This horse has the potential for improvement and is going to need a step forward to win the big dance.

The gelded son of Breeders' Cup Classic and Dubai World Cup winner Pleasantly Perfect is out of the unraced Scat Daddy daughter Melody's Cat.  She is out of the winning Tale of the Cat daughter Capture the Cat.  There isn't really a whole lot of blacktype in this particular female family, at least in the first few generations, but you can find Seattle Slew and Forty Niner daughters there, too. 

Whitmore is yet another late closer in this field and will no doubt be caught in a traffic jam at some point.  He's been putting in some very good runs down at Oaklawn Park, coming from out of the clouds to get a piece of it behind Cupid in the Rebel and Creator and Suddenbreakingnews in the Arkansas Derby.  He gets last year's Triple Crown jockey Victor Espinoza, who's won the last two Derbies in a row (on California Chrome and American Pharoah), so his rider definitely knows how to get to the wire first.  Whitmore himself has yet to break through in a stakes, but the mile and a quarter distance may be right up his alley.

Whitmore has been sharp in his morning works, getting five panels in 1:00 flat in his last work on April 29th in his first timed move at Churchill Downs.  There hasn't been a lot of buzz about this horse that I've heard, but it seems unlikely that Moquett would bring a three-year-old to the first Saturday in May that isn't ready to run a big one.  I'd rather take a wait and see approach on this one than put money on him.

Post eleven will be graced by Exaggerator, a horse who has been consistently in the shadow of Nyquist.  He's Keith Desormeaux's first Kentucky Derby starter and the only horse in the field to post four straight triple digit Brisnet speed figures. 

I love this horse's pedigree, of course.  He is by Curlin, winner of the Breeders' Cup Classic, Dubai World Cup and Preakness Stakes, and out of a stakes-placed daughter of the undefeated champion Seattle Slew son Vindication.  His dam, Dawn Raid, is out of the Bold Ruckus daughter Embur's Sunshine, also dam of Canadian champion Embur's Song.  His pedigree has a very nice balance of speed and stamina, and he's certainly run to it.

As a two-year-old, Exaggerator was brilliant enough to win the Saratoga Special, but fell short in the Breeders' Futurity behind Brody's Cause and in finishing fourth in the Breeders' Cup behind Nyquist, Swipe, and Brody's Cause.  He won the Delta Downs Jackpot in his last start as a two-year-old, then made his three-year-old debut behind Nyquist in the San Vicente.  He was third in the San Felipe to Danzing Candy but avenged that defeat in the absence of Nyquist over a very sloppy track in the Santa Anita Derby.  That race was his most visually impressive as he came from as many as 16 lengths off the pace to take command turning for home, exploding in the stretch to defeat Mor Spirit by 6 1/4. 

There is a lot to like about Exaggerator.  He's tough and well seasoned with nine starts under his belt and he's only twice been worse than third.  He's a grade one winner and is coming into the race in good shape.  He had a quick five furlong work at Santa Anita on the 23rd before shipping to Churchill Downs.  His last work was under the twin spires, a leisurely five panel move in 1:02 3/5.  He has tactical speed and can be anywhere he needs to be in the field, although it seems that his absolute best running is when he lays back and makes one big move.  Why isn't he one of my picks?  Well, I can't really say, but his last two graded stakes wins have come over an off track, and it doesn't look like he's going to get that in the Derby.  He's back against Nyquist and Brody's Cause, both of whom have soundly defeated him before.  He could easily prove my gut completely wrong.

Exaggerator in the post parade for the 2015 Breeders' Futurity (photo by Erin Sanderson)

 

Just beside Exaggerator in the starting gate will be a longshot by the name of Tom's Ready.  The dark colt comes out of the barn of Dallas Stewart, who has surprised us with Derby longshots hitting the board in the past (runners-up Golden Soul and Commanding Curve). 

 

Tom's Ready is a son of More Than Ready, a brilliant sprinter and miler whose foals tend to take after him in their distance preferences.  He gets a little stamina help from his dam's sire, Broad Brush, who got such classic types as Concern, Include, and Farda Amiga, and from his second dam's sire Deputy Minister, sire of Awesome Again, Touch Gold, Go For Wand, etc. 

 

This colt hasn't run numbers in the same class as some of the others, and he only has a maiden win to his credit.  He got beaten in the Street Sense last year by Mo Tom and finished eighth in the Kentucky Jockey Club.  This year, he finished second in the LeComte, again to Mo Tom, and came up flat in the Risen Star.  His runner-up finish in the Louisiana Derby was his best race to date, and he had his fair share of trouble early getting bumped at the break.  There is no doubt in my mind, however, that he would not have finished second had Mo Tom not gotten shut off deep in the stretch.  He was finishing nowhere near as strongly as that rival. 

 

Tom's Ready is coming into this race very similarly to how I remember Commanding Curve training.  His April 29th breeze was excellent, finishing five furlongs in :59 2/5.  He has been training much stronger at Churchill Downs since the Louisiana Derby than he did before it, and if anyone knows how to bring a longshot to hit the board in the big dance, it's Dallas Stewart.  Again, he's not one of my picks, but there's plenty to like.  Unfortunately, he's going to need an ideal trip, as he's yet another horse with little early speed.

 

The big favorite gets lucky number thirteen, the same post as his stablemate Land Over Sea got yesterday in the Kentucky Oaks.  In seven starts, Nyquist has never done anything wrong.  His record is flawless, and he has one of the top career best speed figures in the field.

 

The son of Uncle Mo is out of the winning Forestry mare Seeking Gabrielle.  She is out of the graded stakes winner Seeking Regina, a nicely producing daughter of Kentucky Derby winner Seeking the Gold.  Seeking Regina is also the second dam of Metropolitan Mile winner Sahara Sky.  Fourth dam Matriculation was a stakes winner at a mile and a half and by Belmont Stakes winner Arts And Letters, so both the stamina and the speed can be found in abundance in Nyquist's pedigree.

 

I could wax poetic for pages on what this horse has done in his racing career.  He has won when he was supposed, and even more impressively when he wasn't supposed to.  He was bumped hard at the start of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and farther back than he'd ever been before, all while six wide rounding the first turn.  He was three wide turning for home and still won.  He set a track record in the San Vicente in his first start this year, then came off a layoff in the Florida Derby to win wire to wire.  In that race, he not only defeated the previously unbeaten Mohaymen and fellow Derby starter Majesto, he also ran the fastest final eighth of any nine furlong prep race in the country, all while goofing off in the stretch.  This horse has serious ability and he proves his doubters wrong time and time again.

 

I got to see Nyquist in person a week after the Florida Derby and he did not look like a horse who had just passed one of the toughest tests of his career.  He looked ready to run again that weekend in the Blue Grass, actually.  There should be no concern about this horse having only two starts this year.  He has plenty of bottom from his five race campaign last season and his long breezes this year.  His final work for the Kentucky Derby was a one mile breeze in 1:41 and O'Neill is fond of long, fast gallops for fitness, as well.  He is looking excellent coming into the big race and is the deserving favorite.

 

With tactical speed, grit, toughness and sheer brilliance, Nyquist is one of my top picks for the Kentucky Derby.  These connections teamed up four years ago with I'll Have Another to win the first two legs of the Triple Crown, and there seems little reason to doubt that they could do it again this year.

 

Nyquist at Keeneland a week after the Florida Derby (photo by Erin Sanderson)

 

Mohaymen, the beaten favorite eight lengths behind Nyquist in the Florida Derby, comes back for another go from post position fourteen.  The handsome gray from Shadwell Stables and Kiaran McLaughlin will be looking for redemption in the Kentucky Derby, and he just might get it.

 

Another son of Tapit, Mohaymen sold for $2.2 million as a yearling to Shadwell.  He is out of the multiple graded stakes winner Justwhistledixie, a daughter of the multiple grade one winner Dixie Union.  The latter is often thought of as just a mile type sire, but his son Union Rags won the Belmont Stakes in 2012 and daughter Dixie Strike was third in the Queen's Plate against the boys and graded stakes placed at 10 furlongs.  Second dam General Jeanne is by Honour and Glory and also produced the fast sprinter Bakken.  Third dam Ahpo Hel is by the brilliant Mr. Leader, sire of Travers Stakes winner Wise Times and Santa Anita Handicap winner Ruhlmann, among others, and she is from the female family of the great Bold Irish, second dam of Ruffian.

 

Up until the Florida Derby, Mohaymen had been perfect in his career and largely unchallenged.  He soundly defeated highly regarded colts Zulu, Greenpointcrusader and Flexibility, among others at two and three, winning the Remsen and Nashua at two and the Holy Bull and Fountain of Youth this year.  I am of the firm belief that the Mohaymen we saw in the Florida Derby was not himself, and his workout patterns seem to indicate the same.

 

This fast colt has been training super aggressively in the mornings at Churchill Downs and he looks to be jumping out of his skin.  Hopefully he isn't too sharp for the Derby and trying to run away on the front end.  He has a ton of tactical speed and can lay anywhere in a great stalking position.  With his draw a bit to the outside, he might get a wide trip, but he should not encounter any traffic trouble.  I think Kiaran McLaughlin has a great shot to win his first Kentucky Derby with this colt.

 

Outwork will break from post 15 for the Derby.  The big, imposing son of Uncle Mo is hoping to do what his sire didn't get the chance to do for owner Mike Repole and trainer Todd Pletcher. 

 

The pedigree is certainly all there for Outwork.  His sire is represented by two other Derby starters, including the favored Nyquist, and he is out of the grade one placed Nonna Mia, a daughter of Belmont winner and Kentucky Derby runner-up Empire Maker who has sired such excellent horses as multiple champion Royal Delta, multiple grade one winner Grace Hall, Kentucky Derby runner-up Bodemeister, and Preakness winner and Triple Crown sire Pioneerof The Nile, among numerous others.  Nonna Mia is a half sister to once early Kentucky Derby favorite, Cairo Prince (also by Pioneerof The Nile), by the great Holy Bull.

 

This horse looks every bit as good as his pedigree and has only lost once in his four race career.  He got an early start, breaking his maiden in April at Keeneland last year, but was off with physical issues until this February, when he won a six furlong optional claimer at Tampa Bay by 4 1/4 lengths.  He was a solid second to Destin in the Tampa Bay Derby before winning a sloppy, rainy Wood Memorial.

 

There are doubts as to whether Outwork is actually fast enough to win the Kentucky Derby, but many clockers and handicappers seem to agree that he is blossoming at Churchill Downs and looks better than many of the other contenders.  He had a solid maintenance breeze on the 29th, going five in 1:01 flat, and his gallops have been smooth and effortless.

 

This horse has a lot of early speed, which might end up with him hung wide going into the first turn.  He has proven ability to battle back after being challenged, which is good to see in such a young, inexperienced horse, but his somewhat slower speed figures leave a little something to be desired.  You can't always bet the numbers though, and Outwork is certainly one to watch.

 

Chad Brown has a Derby starter breaking from post 16, and that is Shagaf.  He was a perfect three for three until a beaten favorite in the Wood Memorial, but his typically reserved trainer seems very confident in his chances.

 

By red hot sire Bernardini, Shagaf certainly looks like the hot-blooded type.  He is out of the stakes winning Unbridled's Song daughter Muhaawara.  Out of multiple grade one winner Habibti, Muhaawara is a half sister to Breeders' Cup Marathon winner Eldaafer.  Habibti is out of a daughter of Belmont, Travers, and Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Temperence Hill, so this horse at least has the pedigree to love ten furlongs.

 

Shagaf won the Gotham Stakes earlier in the year over the inner track as Aqueduct and went into the Wood Memorial as the favorite.  That race was his first attempt over a muddy track and he was also further back than he was used to, having to rally wide into the lane before coming up empty in the final eighth.  Chad Brown says "draw a line through it" though, and I am inclined to listen to him.

 

This horse looks to have put on weight since the Wood Memorial and has been breezing very well since arriving at Churchill Downs, with two nice half mile moves over the track.  Physically, he looks a little more like a mile type in my opinion, but so did Cathryn Sophia, and she proved me completely wrong yesterday.  Don't discount this horse, with his stellar pedigree, obvious talent, hot handed jockey and future Hall of Fame trainer. 

 

Out wide in the 17 post is the Bob Baffert trainee, Mor Spirit.  The big dark bay colt is an imposing figure and very distinctive on the track with his low carriage and massive stride.  The grade one winner was a bargain as a yearling when he was purchased for $85,000, only to be resold as a two-year-old to his current connections for $650,000.

 

Mor Spirit is a son of the very talented Wood Memorial winner Eskendereya, who was retired due to a soft tissue injury before he could start in the 2010 Kentucky Derby.  The son of Giant's Causeway out of a Seattle Slew mare was at one time haled as the next great three-year-old and the best chance we'd seen in years to win the Triple Crown.  Mor Spirit is out of the speedy stakes winner I'm a Dixie Girl, a daughter of previously mentioned Dixie Union.  Second dam I'm Out First was a multiple stakes winner and daughter of Allen's Prospect, whose get tended to be both speedy and tough.  Third dam Sequins is also the second dam of Breeders' Futurity (G1) and Robert B. Lewis (G2) winner Great Hunter.

 

Mor Spirit is one of the more consistent horses in the race.  In seven starts, he has won three and finished second four times, earning more than $650,000 to date.  He broke his maiden in his first two turn start, a mile maiden at Santa Anita Park, by 4 1/4 lengths.  He shipped to Kentucky to be second in the sloppy Kentucky Jockey Club, then came from behind to win the Los Alamitos Futurity.  This year, he won the Robert B. Lewis Stakes in very nice fashion before finishing second to a flying Danzing Candy in the San Felipe, defeating Exaggerator by three parts of a length.  He was again second in the Santa Anita Derby and just never seemed to get ahold of the track, but he kept grinding to finish 2 1/4 lengths ahead of the next horse, Uncle Lino.

 

This horse has been training extremely well since arriving at Churchill Downs, with two five furlong moves in :59 4/5.  He's a big, long-striding horse with some tactical speed, though he's going to need a clean trip to avoid getting shut off and having to rebreak.  He doesn't have a scintillating turn of foot, but he is a determined grinder who will come after you until the end.  I love this horse going ten furlongs at Churchill Downs and he will get three-time Kentucky Derby winning jockey Gary Stevens in the irons.

 

Mor Spirit as a two-year-old at Del Mar (photo by Erin Sanderson)

 

Breaking from post 18 will be the longshot Majesto.  He is Gustavo Delgado's first Kentucky Derby starter, but doesn't look as if he quite belongs with this bunch.

 

The bay ridgling is by dual Breeders' Cup Classic winner Tiznow and out of the unraced Unacloud, a daughter of the grade one winning handicapper Unaccounted For.  Second dam Clouds Ambre is by the speedy stakes winner and sire Two Punch and third dam Arctic Cloud was a multiple stakes winner up to a mile and a sixteenth. 

 

In six starts, Majesto has only won once in breaking his maiden at a mile and a sixteenth in February at Gulfstream Park.  In a bold move, his connections pointed him for the heavyweight dogfight that the Florida Derby was supposed to be.  The match race between Nyquist and Mohaymen never really developed, and Majesto closed very well to grab second, beaten 3 1/4 lengths by the west coast invader.  His performance there was certainly good, but he also got the ideal trip along the inside that none of the other top finishers could take advantage of.

 

Majesto has been training well going into the Derby, but he just doesn't have the look of a Derby winner.  He has a big, ground-covering stride, but I almost think it's too big to be translated into speed and athleticism, which may be necessary to avoid a wide trip from this post position.  For me, he's a toss.

 

Post nineteen (my lucky number) will hold Brody's Cause, a big, strong colt who is a multiple grade one winner for the barn of Dale Romans.  Romans seems extremely confident in this horse going into the first Saturday in May and says he will have no excuses today.

 

"Brody" is a son of the great Giant's Causeway and actually has one of the best classic dosage profiles of anyone in the race.  His dam is the multiple stakes placed Sweet Breanna.  Her sire, Sahm, was a Mr. Prospector graded stakes winner on the turf and the only son of Irish Derby winning filly Salsabil.  Second dam is the talented Sweet Roberta, a graded stakes winning daughter of three-time champion and Epsom Derby winner Roberto, who sired the great turf horse Sunshine Forever and perennial leading sire Dynaformer.  Brody's third dam, Candy Bowl, is a half sister to sire Cure the Blues and by record-setting multiple grade one winner Majestic Light.  He is from the female family of the memorable Imperatrice, second dam of Secretariat.

 

Brody's Cause made his first start at a mile on the turf and was beaten 25 lengths, but once he switched to dirt, he only has one bad race.  Dale Romans says that his multiple grade one winner had legitimate excuses for the Tampa Bay Derby and to cross that one out.  He came back with a powerful win in the Blue Grass, in which he closed from more than 10 lengths off the pace and navigated a fourteen horse field to win going away.  He played around a bit in the stretch with no one to push him and jumped to the wrong lead, but it was also Luis Saez's first time riding him.  Saez should have a better feel for him this time out and be able to drop him back into the clear.  His speed figures are a concern, but he seems like the type of horse that we haven't seen the bottom of yet.

 

Brody has also been training very well at Churchill Downs.  He's been very on the muscle and getting over the track smoothly, including in his April 30th breeze in 1:00 1/5, fourth fastest of 57 at the distance that day.  That work was unaccompanied and very professional, although he did change leads approaching the wire as he did in the Blue Grass before galloping out strongly around the turn.

 

Brody's Cause has been one of my favorites since I picked him in the post parade for the Breeders' Futurity, and he looks like a colt made to go the ten furlongs.  He's going to come running, but we'll see if he's actually fast enough to get there.  I'd still use him in a trifecta, superfecta or across the board bet.

 

Brody's Cause winning the 2016 Blue Grass Stakes (photo by Erin Sanderson)

 

The final horse in the Derby gate will be Danzing Candy, the first Derby starter for trainer Cliff Sise, Jr.  The graded stakes winner has blazing speed, but his ability to get ten furlongs first from the far outside is a point of debate.

 

He is a son of Twirling Candy, the record-setting sprinter who also placed second in the Pacific Classic and third in the Hollywood Gold Cup.  His dam Talkin And Singing is a daughter of Songandaprayer, probably most famous for setting the most torrid pace in Kentucky Derby history in 2001.  Talkin And Singing is a half sister to Breeders' Cup Turf winner Better Talk Now, both produced from the Baldski daughter Bendita. 

 

Danzing Candy broke his maiden the day after Christmas at Santa Anita, winning at seven furlongs by 3 1/4 lengths in his first start under Mike Smith.  He clicked off two more wins, both gate to wire, including the San Felipe over Mor Spirit and Exaggerator.  In the Santa Anita Derby, he was sent from the gate after not breaking the sharpest and just never relaxed thereafter.  It's been theorized that the mud hitting him in the belly could have been the culprit, or he just didn't feel like rating.  Either way, he set blazing fractions and faded to be beaten by 13 lengths by Exaggerator.

 

This colt hasn't had a timed work over the Churchill Downs strip, but he has been training sharply, his last breeze on the 30th five furlongs in :59 4/5.  I've seen absolutely zero video of him since he arrived at Churchill, but it would seem silly for a horse with his kind of talent to be there if he wasn't fit (of course, we've seen sillier).  I think he is at an extreme disadvantage from the far outside post and if he wants a ground saving trip, Smith will have to use him to clear the entire field.

 

Personally, this race has me entirely baffled.  There are eight or nine that I like and think have a big shot to win, and I can make a good case for just about all of them.  I'd be playing combinations of Nyquist, Mohaymen, Mor Spirit, Brody's Cause, Destin, Suddenbreakingnews, Gun Runner and perhaps Mo Tom or Lani for kicks.  I'm tempted to toss Trojan Nation into a ten cent Nyquist/Mor Spirit/all superfecta box to see what happens.

The 2016 Kentucky Derby Post Parade (Part 1 of 2)

This will hardly be as detailed as my Oaks rundown, since I haven't had any motivation, but who can resist doing something special for the Kentucky Derby for long?  I have to admit that, no matter how much I look at it, this field leaves my head spinning, and I keep returning to the five colts I adored last season: Nyquist, Mohaymen, Brody's Cause, Mor Spirit and Trojan Nation.  I can make a strong case for several others, including Creator, Gun Runner, and Exaggerator.  But why don't we start at the top and see where we end up? 

Leading the post parade will be the maiden Trojan Nation.  He's bucking history in a big way.  No horse has won the Kentucky Derby to break their maiden since 1933 when Broker's Tip did it in a shocker.  And don't forget that it's been 30 years since a horse breaking from the rail has won the Derby.

I spotted this guy back in August at Del Mar after he'd just come off the track and I was blown away by his physicality.  He's a big, long-striding colt with a giant walk and an overall classy look to him.  Once I saw that pedigree, I was hooked.  He's by the classic sire Street Cry, who got 2007 Derby winner Street Sense and numerous other excellent runners, and out of the champion race mare Storm Song, by classic winner Summer Squall.   

A maiden is a maiden, but this one is grade one placed and probably the richest three-year-old maiden in the country.  He's shown a variety of running styles to his various on the board finishes, but his best races have been come-from-behind finishes.  Last out in the Wood Memorial, he was as many as 17 lengths off the lead before roaring up the rail to nearly catch Outwork for the win.  He was in very tight quarters but still finished well, so at least he isn't afraid to move through traffic.  

Trojan Nation (I call him "TJ") doesn't seem to know he lost.  According to his trainer, Paddy Gallagher, he has been a different horse since leaving New York.  He's certainly been training aggressively and looks like he has been a handful in the mornings.  His last breeze on the 28th at Santa Anita was a bullet 1:12 3/5 for 6 furlongs. 

As much as I adore this colt, I don't think he's going to make modern day history.  His far inside post position and late running style will do him absolutely no favors in this big of a field.  I don't doubt that he will be passing horses in the stretch, but it will probably be too little too late.  He might be one to use in a superfecta box, however. 

 

Trojan Nation at Del Mar as an unraced two-year-old (photo by Erin Sanderson)

Donnie Von Hemel's trainee Suddenbreakingnews will head to the gate next.  This horse has improved almost every race since he was disqualified from the win in his very first race at Remington Park on the turf.  He has been exceptionally consistent, winning or finishing second in all but one of his eight career starts.

Really, the more I look at Suddenbreakingnews, the more I like him.  This gritty gelding has only one bad race where he admittedly did not get the best trip in the Rebel Stakes.  He was very impressive circling the field in the Southwest Stakes to win powering away from Whitmore, then ended up widest of all in the Arkansas Derby and finished better than anyone in the race. 

He certainly has the pedigree of a ten furlong horse.  His sire, Mineshaft, was a four-time grade one winner including the 1 1/4 mile Jockey Club Gold Cup and Suburban Handicap.  His dam, Uchitel, is by Preakness and Belmont hero Afleet Alex and out of Party Cited, winner of the 11 furlong Yerba Buena Handicap, by dual Arc de Triomphe winner Alleged.  To add to the appeal of a true classic pedigree, this horse has been training exceptionally well since the Arkansas Derby.  His five panel move on April 29th was impressive: smooth, professional, and fast in :59 3/5. 

Morning line odds of 20-1 just don't seem fair for Suddenbreakingnews.  He's consistent, tough, and has been preparing for the big race as well as anyone.  His inside post position probably won't help him, though, and will more than likely force him into another situation where he has to drop way out of it and circle the field.  The long Churchill Downs stretch and extra furlong could help him get there.  This is definitely one to watch.

The handsome gray Creator will exit the three post for new Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen.  The first of three sons of Tapit in the field, the big colt took a few starts to get his running legs under him.  He broke his maiden in his sixth try, going from last to first in the blink of an eye around the turn and roaring home more than seven lengths clear. 

By now, I believe we all know the merits of Tapit as a sire in terms of class, speed, and all around awesome.  Creator's dam is an unusual one, though.  A two-time Peruvian champion, Morena was also multiple graded stakes placed here in the United States.  She is by Privately Held, an excellent stamina influence in Peru by Private Account, and out of a daughter of Belmont winner Summing.

In six starts on the dirt, Creator has never been worse than second, and his win in the Arkansas Derby was downright powerful.  He came home the final eighth of a mile in :12 3/5, a sight faster than many of the others have accomplished at nine furlongs, and his late pace number of 101 was very good.  He's been training pretty leisurely since then, but after popping his highest career speed figure, he doesn't need any more incentive to bounce.

This is another horse with a lot of class that will probably be hurt by his post position.  He has next to no early speed and will find himself well behind and likely in the clear, but making his way through a 20 horse field is a much different animal than he's faced before.  If anyone can pull off circling this big field on Saturday, it could be the big-striding gray Creator.

Breaking from post four is Mo Tom, who just may be this year's Dollar Bill.  The poor colt just can't seem to stay out of trouble.  Even in his win in the LeComte Stakes in January, he hit the gate at the start, then had his hind end nearly taken out from under him going into the first turn. 

The first of Uncle Mo's representatives in this year's Derby, Mo Tom is out of the Rubiano mare Caroni, also the dam of Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies runner-up Beautician.  Caroni is a half sister to the multiple graded stakes winning sprinter Kashatreya.  Second dam Deuce Carrotte, by Caro, is a half sister to multiple graded stakes winner Lady At Peace.  There's a healthy mix of speed and stamina in Mo Tom's pedigree, and his race performances indicate he can run to the stamina side of it as well as he can the speed.

He broke his maiden at first asking at six furlongs, then took the one mile Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs in his third race before finishing a solid third in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes behind Airoforce and Mor Spirit.  His previously mentioned run in the LeComte was excellent and he came home with a late pace figure of 103, one of the best in the Derby field.  Since then, he's been a hard luck case, having to check hard mid-rally in both the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby, both won by Gun Runner.  He was absolutely flying in the Risen Star before bouncing off the rail and re-rallied to finish better than anyone.  It was almost a perfect replay in the Louisiana Derby for Mo Tom, who was full of run until his rider steered him to the rail and got shut off once more.

This is a very nice horse who has not been training poorly at all, but he does look a bit light coming into the Derby.  He still looks a bit narrow bodied and lanky, as if he has some maturing left to do.  There is no doubt he is a talented horse, but whether he is ready for this race is the question.  And whether he can make it through a bigger field than he's ever seen before without running into trouble.  Corey Lanerie is going to have to give him a much better ride than he has in the last two to win this one.

Gun Runner leads the Kentucky Derby points standings with 151 after winning the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby.  The handsome chestnut has moved forward in each of his five career starts, at least numbers wise, and doesn't show any signs of slowing down.  Another from the barn of Steve Asmussen, this horse is coming off quite a layoff since the Louisiana Derby and would be bucking history if he won the roses on Saturday.  The only horse to win the Kentucky Derby after taking the Fair Grounds prize was Grindstone in 1996.  Recent winners of the race have not fared so well at Churchill Downs, however (last year's winner International Star never made the starting gate, and the 2014 winner Vicar's In Trouble was 19th). 

The son of record setting Pacific Classic winner Candy Ride has plenty going for him, though.  He is out of the talented graded stakes winner Quiet Giant, a half sister to Horse of the Year Saint Liam by top sire Giant's Causeway.  That pedigree is all class and so is this colt's race record.  He's won four out of five, with only one poor effort in the slop at Churchill Downs, where he finished fourth last fall in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes.  Never fear: he broke his maiden under the twin spires at first asking going a mile in October, so I don't think he dislikes the track and it won't be muddy on Derby Day.

Gun Runner has excellent tactical speed and is able to put himself in a good position early on, which will serve him well in the cavalry charge to the first turn.  The horses drawn inside of him are, for the most part, stone cold closers, so finding the rail and saving ground should be no problem for him.  He was perfectly comfortable running covered up along the rail in the Louisiana Derby before powering home 4 1/2 lengths to the good.  Even with a clean trip, I doubt Mo Tom could have caught him that day.

This colt could be eligible for a bounce after five straight races in which he ran a bigger speed figure than he did the previous start, but he has been training very forwardly.  His breeze in company on April 25th was particularly impressive, as he strode away from his workmate with ease and finished in 1:12 1/5 for the six furlongs.  All the ingredients are here: proven class, tactical speed, experience, and stamina.  With a savvy rider like Florent Geroux in the saddle, this horse should get a clean trip and could be very dangerous.

Gun Runner at Keeneland as a two-year-old (photo by Erin Sanderson)

 

My Man Sam will exit post six.  The Chad Brown trainee is light in the graded stakes experience department and has only started over the main track anywhere once.  Prior to his second place finish in the Blue Grass, all three of his starts had come over the inner track at Aqueduct.

 

By the versatile Tapit son Trappe Shot, who finished second in the Haskell Invitational and was also a graded stakes winning sprinter, My Man Sam is out of the graded stakes placed Arch daughter Lauren Byrd.  The latter is a half sister to multiple graded stakes winning turf runner Hudson Steele, both out of the stakes placed Smart Strike mare Strike the Sky.  There's plenty of classic stamina to be found in this colt's pedigree, and two turn races have never seemed to faze him.

 

In his second start and three-year-old debut, My Man Sam flew home 8 lengths in front of a maiden field at Aqueduct, moving forward tremendously around two turns from his sprint debut.  He was a solid second behind Matt King Coal next out in an optional claimer before invading Kentucky for the Blue Grass.  He was far back early and a bit rank, and it took him a while to really get going, but after fanning eight-wide on the turn he finished strongly to get second in his graded stakes debut. 

 

There's nothing to argue about in regards to this colt's appearance in the mornings.  His works have been steady and his gallops strong and smooth, though his rider may want to invest in a face mask (he does tend to have a habit of flipping his head in the air when he wants to do more).  Chad Brown has been on fire the last few weeks and he wouldn't bring a horse into the Derby without having him in tip top shape.  There's plenty to like about My Man Sam, though he isn't one of my top picks.

 

My Man Sam the day before the Blue Grass Stakes (photo by Erin Sanderson)

 

Post number seven will be filled by Oscar Nominated from the barn of Mike Maker.  The 50-1 morning line odds are probably well deserved, as this horse has run nowhere near the kinds of numbers other contenders have put up. 

 

This good-looking chestnut colt is by turf superstar Kitten's Joy and out of the Theatrical daughter Devine Actress.  His pedigree screams turf at first glance, but his dam did get her stakes win on the dirt.  His second dam, by Mr. Prospector, is also a half sister to record-setting Arlington Washington Futurity winner Sorcerer's Stone, so there's some dirt ability to be found there.

 

Oscar Nominated himself has only once run on anything other than turf, and that was in his last start, the Spiral Stakes.  He earned his career best speed figure in a gutsy win over Azar, but that was well below many of the others in this field.  The Spiral has coughed up some very good horses, including two Derby winners, in recent years: Street Sense, who finished fourth behind Derby runner-up Hard Spun in 2007 and 2011 Derby winner Animal Kingdom.  The latter was also making his first start on dirt in the Run for the Roses and had a primarily turf pedigree, so it has happened before.

 

This colt didn't look like he was working in 1:00 4/5 in his April 29th breeze and he galloped out as strongly as any I've seen all week.  His stride doesn't look particularly big and extended, but he certainly gets over the ground quickly.  He looked at home on the dirt, but he's going to have to take a major step up to be competitive against this field.  If he can take those steps forward, he could threaten the top contenders with his tactical speed and good post position, but if I were betting, I'd rather put my money somewhere else.

 

One of the most intriguing horses in the field simply due to his quirky personality and morning antics, Lani will break from post eight under leading Japanese jockey Yutaka Take.  Both foreign horses and winners of the UAE Derby have fared poorly in the Run for the Roses in the past, but Lani looks like the type who could turn those fortunes around.

 

The big gray burst onto the Derby scene with a grinding victory in the UAE Derby back in March over the star filly Polar River.  He shipped to the United States much earlier than any of his predecessors to get acclimated to the environment at Churchill Downs.  That was certainly a forward-thinking move on the part of his connections, but it hasn't stopped Lani from giving them fits in his preparations.

 

This colt has been nothing if not temperamental since his arrival at Churchill Downs.  In his first breeze stateside, he refused to run and barely went fast enough to earn a timed workout, getting five furlongs in 1:06 flat.  A week later, he didn't get into gear until nearly halfway through what was supposed to be another five furlong breeze, instead earning a three furlong time of :37 2/5.  Continuing his unusual (at least for us Americans) training schedule of long stints on the track in the mornings, Lani had his final breeze on Tuesday: a much more aggressive five furlongs in 1:01 flat, third fastest on the day.  His final eighth was a strong one in :12 2/5.

 

Lani may be as good as any of the others in the field if he decides to run.  In the UAE Derby, he fell flat on his face at the start and was far back early on before making a big middle move into contention down the back straight.  He won by just under a length in a solid final time. 

 

Another Tapit son, Lani's dam's side is all classic types.  His dam, Heavenly Romance, is a Japanese bred, grade one winning daughter of Sunday Silence out of the unraced Sadler's Wells daughter First Act.  The latter is a half sister to Irish St. Leger winning filly Dark Lomond, out of the Ribot daughter Arkadina.  Fourth dam Natashka won the Alabama Stakes at 10 furlongs and was the 1981 Broodmare of the Year.

 

I would be tempted to put money on Lani just for fun, but he also has a big shot in the race if he can stay out of trouble.  He's a big horse that would not be doing himself any favors if he had to hit the brakes; it would just take too long for him to re-rally.  He's one to keep in mind at the betting windows.

 

Right beside Lani will be another grey, Destin.  The Todd Pletcher trainee has followed an extremely unorthodox path to the starting gate, leaving some scratching their heads.  The eight week layoff is a huge concern, but if any trainer can have a horse ready to run in the Kentucky Derby off such a break, it's probably Pletcher.

 

The son of Giant's Causeway has a blue-blooded pedigree and looked good enough even as a yearling to sell for $400,000 at Keeneland in September 2014.  Out of the grade one winner Dream of Summer, he is a full brother to another talented gray colt, Creative Cause.  The latter was a grade one winner at two and a grade two winner at three, and finished fifth in the Derby and third in the Preakness. 

 

It's hard to argue with those kind of pedigree connections in a horse who set a track record in his last start, defeating two other major Kentucky Derby contenders in the process.  He made his stakes debut in January, finishing fourth behind Mo Tom and Tom's Ready in the LeComte at Fair Grounds.  It was his first two-turn race and he certainly moved forward in the Sam F. Davis a month later, roaring home by 2 1/4 lengths and earning his career high speed figure.  After getting bumped at the break and racing three-wide for much of the early going in the Tampa Bay Derby, Destin moved to the leader, Wood winner Outwork, turning for home as Brody's Cause sputtered far back.  Destin and Outwork slugged it out through the stretch, but it was Destin who got the better of his rival late, setting the track mark for a mile and a sixteenth.

 

Destin is another big-striding colt, and he's been smooth and professional in the mornings.  His April 29th work in company was very solid.  Rounding the turn, his ears were flicking back and forth, but coming down the stretch he got down to business and worked well around the turn into the backstretch.  He got an official time of 1:01 and was caught galloping out seven furlongs in 1:27 flat.

 

There were no physical issues that caused Destin's long layoff, at least nothing published.  The plan, according to Pletcher, was to run him fresh in the Kentucky Derby, and he does have the foundation of three starts this year, with some others having only run twice.  This is yet another talented colt with a bright future, and he gets a good post and excellent jockey in Javier Castellano to go with his tactical speed.  Destin could have a big shot to get to the wire first on Saturday.

 

That's almost the entire first half of the field, and this writer needs to get to sleep.  It is currently 4:30 am on Kentucky Derby morning.  I hope everyone's ready for a big day.  On a completely Derby-unrelated side note, go Shakhimat (in the American Turf)!